Re: the future of the center spot

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@ix.netcom.com>]

> > ** Original Subject:  the future of the center spot
> > ** Original Sender: "Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>
> > ** Original Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2001 10:59:50 -0700
>
> > ** Original Message follows...
>
> >I don't know if I'm responsible for this latest spate of Duncan related
> > posts (having briefly mentioned Duncan as one example of centers who would
> > be coming onto the market in a few years) but at least in my case I wouldn't
> > limit attention to Duncan alone. A quick scan of the salaries at realgm.com
> > shows that a number of big men apart from Duncan become available (or can
> > exercise options to do so) after 2003, for example:
> >
> > Alonzo Mourning,

> No chance he leaves Miami for Boston

>
> > Jermaine O'Neal,

Indiana re-signs him in a split second. Not going anywhere.


>
> > Dale Davis,

Kind of old by 2003.

>
> > PJ Brown,

Unlikely he'll leave Charlotte for Boston. Could be heading
back to Miami, when he becomes a FA.


>
> > Elden Campbell.

Possible, but Charlotte ownership likely to be settled by then.


>
> >
> > What Joe has to say about Duncan would go for these guys as well - if we can
> > offer a wining situation with a chance at a championship

A chance at a championship by 2003? Not likely. It's going
to be a stretch for the 2001 -2002 edition to make the playoffs.


> then we might be
> > able to attract one of these folks to bolster one of our weak power
> > positions either directly or through sign and trade (or perhaps two - one
> > through sign and trade, the other through an exception).

Through the exception and impinge on the dreaded luxury tax?
LOL.


> I think each of
> > these guys would represent a boost to the team and some (Mourning or O'Neal)
> > could well represent the final piece of the puzzle.

So would Kevin Garnett and Shaq, but they're not coming to
Boston either.

> There is no need to pin
> > all one's hopes on Duncan (once again!).

LOL. There are zero hopes that should be pinned on Duncan playing
for the Celtics.


> What we need is player development
> > and team progress in order to put us in position where such a trade would no
> > longer be merely a pipe dream.

The dreams are going to continue for a while.


>
> >
> > I think the strategy of drafting three highly talented, multiskilled but
> > smaller men, developing them, and then attempting to pluck a mature big man
> > talent is both a safer and (if it pans out) a quicker way back to the top
> > than packaging all our picks for a high school big man. The latter strategy,
> > while it does have the merit of attempting to address our greatest weakness
> > directly, puts all of our eggs in one (long-shot) basket.

But there were several Big Men available in the past draft.


One problem with taking smaller players is that when you try to
trade up in height, you generally have to overpay, i.e. the
Danny Ainge trade. It's weasier to weal a Wick Wobie for a
big time smaller player like Wennis Wohnson than wice wersa.


> If it pans out -
> > great! - you have a Jabbar to carry your franchise for 15 years (providing
> > that he doesn't opt to leave). But the likelihood of that occurring is it
> > seems to me quite low. By pursuing the former strategy Wallace has not only
> > spread out the risk associated with a rookie bust (through injury, attitude,
> > whatever), but he is also playing the odds that tell us that smaller men pan
> > out more frequently and more quickly than all but the rarest of big men.

That's why 2s and 3s are a dime a dozen and Big Men have such an
inflated value.  Anytime you have a chance to go for a quality Big Man,
you can't be afraid to take a risk. Bird would have
taken the risk; Wallace on a short leash with Gaston couldn't,
or perhaps it isn't in his nature.


>
> > Those same smaller players can make us much more competitive much more
> > quickly

Adding Quality Veterans would be a far more effective method of
boosting the record than rookies.

> thereby increasing our desirability as a landing spot for
> > disgruntled, veteran but still talented big men heading into the latter
> > stages of their careers. This strategy is also safer insofar as you have a

> > 'pick' of big men knowing full well their track records, problems and
> > strengths. For example, the Lakers have virtually made it a franchise
> > tradition of cherry-picking top center talent - Chamberlain, Jabbar and
> > O'Neal - thereby bypassing the arduous (and statistically risky) task of
> > developing such talent. The problem with this strategy is that Boston is not
> > LA. Hence the importance of developing both our assets individually and our
> > team as a whole (and not wasting cap dollars on marginal improvements of the
> > current team) - because weather and tradition alone are not going to get it
> > done. If things break right then two more years of development and
> > improvement.should put us in a position to make a big move to try and win it
> > all.
> >

LA, Orlando, Sacramento, Dallas, several other teams have a much
better chance of winning it all for the next several years. The
C's are on an evolutionary dead end with their ownership, management,
and players. Only when there's an overhaul of all three, will the
team re-emerge to contend for a title.
Ray

>
> > ------------------------------
> > Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2001 11:11:30 +0200
> > From: "j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>
> > Subject: Re: re: Duncan
> >
> > At 01:27 16/10/01 -0400, James A. Hill wrote:
> > >I would think that it would be a combination of Kenny's cap space and
> > >whoever would be traded to SA, as it would be a sign-and-trade.  That could
> > >be one player or multiple players going to SA combined with Kenny's cap
> > >space to make it work.  That said, I wouldn't hold my breath on it
> > >happening.
> >
> > I imagine Boston will need to already be a 45+ win team for Duncan to
> > consider joining our club, once Dave Robinson retires and the Spurs
> > decline. I'm day dreaming big time here, but if Boston can successfully
> > develop great wing players in Paul, Joe, Joe, Kedrick and Antoine, we'd
> > almost resemble Red Auerbach's Celts team just prior to the Bill Russell
> > draft (with Ramsey, Cousy, Sharmin etc.)
> >
> > Would that type of team be attractive to a quality free agent big man? Cap
> > room won't be an issue if we let McCarty, Eric Williams clear the cap with
> > Kenny.
> >
> > Of course if Joe Johnson and Kedrick Brown's raw ability roughly translates
> > by 2003 into the second coming of McGrady and Vince Carter, we'll be far
> > too busy kicking the crap out of everyone's butts to worry about signing a
> > dominant center. ;-)
> >
> > I know I can easily be accused of wearing green-colored glasses when it
> > comes to the Celtics organization, but please bear in mind that I predicted
> > 33 wins last year (because of coaching) and was more critical of the Moiso
> > pick than anyone out there. Had Pitinochio not left, we were actually on
> > pace before midseason to win even fewer than 33 games.
>
> >** --------- End Original Message ----------- **