the future of the center spot

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

I don't know if I'm responsible for this latest spate of Duncan related
posts (having briefly mentioned Duncan as one example of centers who would
be coming onto the market in a few years) but at least in my case I wouldn't
limit attention to Duncan alone. A quick scan of the salaries at realgm.com
shows that a number of big men apart from Duncan become available (or can
exercise options to do so) after 2003, for example:

Alonzo Mourning,
Jermaine O'Neal,
Dale Davis,
PJ Brown,
Elden Campbell.

What Joe has to say about Duncan would go for these guys as well - if we can
offer a wining situation with a chance at a championship then we might be
able to attract one of these folks to bolster one of our weak power
positions either directly or through sign and trade (or perhaps two - one
through sign and trade, the other through an exception). I think each of
these guys would represent a boost to the team and some (Mourning or O'Neal)
could well represent the final piece of the puzzle. There is no need to pin
all one's hopes on Duncan (once again!). What we need is player development
and team progress in order to put us in position where such a trade would no
longer be merely a pipe dream.

I think the strategy of drafting three highly talented, multiskilled but
smaller men, developing them, and then attempting to pluck a mature big man
talent is both a safer and (if it pans out) a quicker way back to the top
than packaging all our picks for a high school big man. The latter strategy,
while it does have the merit of attempting to address our greatest weakness
directly, puts all of our eggs in one (long-shot) basket. If it pans out -
great! - you have a Jabbar to carry your franchise for 15 years (providing
that he doesn't opt to leave). But the likelihood of that occurring is it
seems to me quite low. By pursuing the former strategy Wallace has not only
spread out the risk associated with a rookie bust (through injury, attitude,
whatever), but he is also playing the odds that tell us that smaller men pan
out more frequently and more quickly than all but the rarest of big men.
Those same smaller players can make us much more competitive much more
quickly thereby increasing our desirability as a landing spot for
disgruntled, veteran but still talented big men heading into the latter
stages of their careers. This strategy is also safer insofar as you have a
'pick' of big men knowing full well their track records, problems and
strengths. For example, the Lakers have virtually made it a franchise
tradition of cherry-picking top center talent - Chamberlain, Jabbar and
O'Neal - thereby bypassing the arduous (and statistically risky) task of
developing such talent. The problem with this strategy is that Boston is not
LA. Hence the importance of developing both our assets individually and our
team as a whole (and not wasting cap dollars on marginal improvements of the
current team) - because weather and tradition alone are not going to get it
done. If things break right then two more years of development and
improvement.should put us in a position to make a big move to try and win it
all.

------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2001 11:11:30 +0200
From: "j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>
Subject: Re: re: Duncan

At 01:27 16/10/01 -0400, James A. Hill wrote:
>I would think that it would be a combination of Kenny's cap space and
>whoever would be traded to SA, as it would be a sign-and-trade.  That could
>be one player or multiple players going to SA combined with Kenny's cap
>space to make it work.  That said, I wouldn't hold my breath on it
>happening.

I imagine Boston will need to already be a 45+ win team for Duncan to
consider joining our club, once Dave Robinson retires and the Spurs
decline. I'm day dreaming big time here, but if Boston can successfully
develop great wing players in Paul, Joe, Joe, Kedrick and Antoine, we'd
almost resemble Red Auerbach's Celts team just prior to the Bill Russell
draft (with Ramsey, Cousy, Sharmin etc.)

Would that type of team be attractive to a quality free agent big man? Cap
room won't be an issue if we let McCarty, Eric Williams clear the cap with
Kenny.

Of course if Joe Johnson and Kedrick Brown's raw ability roughly translates
by 2003 into the second coming of McGrady and Vince Carter, we'll be far
too busy kicking the crap out of everyone's butts to worry about signing a
dominant center. ;-)

I know I can easily be accused of wearing green-colored glasses when it
comes to the Celtics organization, but please bear in mind that I predicted
33 wins last year (because of coaching) and was more critical of the Moiso
pick than anyone out there. Had Pitinochio not left, we were actually on
pace before midseason to win even fewer than 33 games.