Indiana preview

["j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

The Indiana "Pacemakers" of old have done an impressive job in assuring 
continuity from the previous generation (Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, Chris 
Mullin and the Davis boys) to the new. Under Donnie Walsh and Bird/Isiah 
there has been barely any discernable "rebuilding" phase.

Jermaine O'Neil just turned 23 today. Al Harrington is 21 and definitely an 
emerging star of some sort. Jamaal Tinsley turns 24 this winter. Jalen Rose 
blossomed under Larry Bird from a Rick Fox calibre role player to a 
legitimate Dream Team asset.

On the bench, Jonathan Bender is 20, he's 7 feet tall, and he's coming off 
a season high 15-point game against Portland. Austin Croshere is 26.

You have to credit the veteran players themselves for making the transition 
easier. Reggie Miller, a natural-born shooter, is holding back to the tune 
of just 11.6 shot attempts in over 36 minutes. Yet he's still averaging 17 
points per game. He's a Hall of Famer.

Jalen Rose, 28, is averaging 5 boards, 4.5 assists and shooting .514 from 
the field. Jermaine O'Neil provides 2.75 blocks, 9.0 boards and 18 ppg on 
.504 shooting. Walsh did a magnificent job of not only replacing, but 
upgrading on Rik Smits.

Al Harrington is averaging only 12 points and 5 boards, but he's shooting a 
precocious .544 from the field and .833 from the line. He's got to be an 
outside contender from NBA sixth man of the year. Not too bad for his age (21).

Travis Best is re-emerging as part of one of the league's most potent bench 
rotations that includes Harrington, Croshere (.368FG% but 5.4 boards), 
Bender and Jeff Foster (2.8 offensive boards).

In just over 48mpg, Tinsley and Best are averaging an incredible 12.6 
assists as well as 15.4 points and 3.75 steals. Best is shooting the ball 
really, really well (.571 on treys), scoring more per game than Tinsley, 
and getting 2.0 steals and 4.6 assists in under 23 minutes.

Tinsley is slumping a bit on his shot (.385FG%) but we all knew that was a 
potential weakness. Although his game has slipped noticeably after his ROY 
start, his assist and steals rate is still very solid. For instance, he's 
down to 7.6 assists per game, but with better than a 3:1 assist-to-turnover 
ratio. He's also averaging 1.75 steals and 7.5 points in over 26 minutes of 
playing time. Not quite Mark Jackson ROY numbers anymore, but not too bad 
next to Kenny's numbers.

Curiously enough for a team with quality shooters, the Pacers use the trey 
sparingly (14 or so attempts per game), at least compared to the Celtics 
(22.5 attempts).

Isiah's team has a significant advantage over Boston in key areas like 
assists, steals and blocks per game. The visiting Pacers also bring in a 
remarkable .467 shooting from the field and .833 from the line, compared to 
Boston's .434 and .743.

Meanwhile, the Celtics score 12.75 more points per game from Bird-land than 
the Pacers do. But the Pacers hold opponents to a microscopic .308 from 
three-point land, while Boston is gunning away at a .441 clip. Something 
has to give on Wednesday night.

Boston counters Indiana's statistical advantages with a rebounding edge on 
both the offensive and defensive glass, as well as fewer turnovers. The 
Pacers are getting thumped on the offensive boards by over two more boards 
per game, while Boston holds a significant plus margin (+4) in offensive 
rebounding against opponents to date.

So aside from the home court advantage (and significant preparation time), 
the Celtics will likely need to establish this offensive board dominance 
and find a three-point shooting groove in order to go get a great win. As 
is so often the case, a lot of the hope falls on Antoine Walker playing 
well against the Pacers.

Both clubs are averaging over 100 points per game. But here's a stat you 
might not expect....the Celtics have a larger average victory margin of 7.2 
compared to the Pacer's 6.9.

The Pacers have lost to Toronto and New Jersey (a common opponent), while 
beating Sacramento, Portland and Orlando. Boston has yet to beat any 
opponent of that caliber, which is why this game poses a real challenge.

Walker and Pierce are averaging 17.9 rebounds, 3.0 steals, 7.6 assists, 6.5 
turnovers. They're combined 50.5 points per game ranks well behind the 
"Gaykers" dynamic duo that is closing in on 60 ppg (59.2 currently).

Its flukey without any question, but rookie Joe Johnson has an astronomical 
assist-to-turnover ratio of 19-to-1. He also has a plus ratio in 
steals-per-turnover (6:1 in fact), which is something you basically never 
see.  Its all part of the dream start he's had to his Boston career.

Johnson brings a .571FG% and 12.7 ppg into the Pacers showdown, and seems 
more aggressive and confident than ever. As good as he is, Adrian Griffin 
got off to a similar if possibly even better start as a rookie. I think 
Adrian finished his rookie-of-the-month campaign averaging over 8 boards 
and 3 steals or something, with a high FG% and low turnovers. Nagging 
injuries really took a toll after that.

The Celtics will need to go 3-1 in order to get off to the 7-3 start I had 
earlier assumed they will need in order to stay on a .500 pace (given how 
advantageous the schedule was). Now that won't be easy to achieve anymore, 
with Toronto and Indiana standing in the way. Both Indiana and NJ are 
playing better than anticipated, which makes the first ten games of the 
season tougher than it looked on paper entering the season. In any case, it 
would be great for Boston to get off to a 6-4 or 7-3 start. The fans will 
really start paying close attention to the team. I really hope that 
happens, but the Celtics have to continue improving and taking full 
advantage of all this practice time and scouting preparation.

Even more important than this Indy game is trying to get a sweep against 
the brutally underperforming Atlanta Hawks this weekend.

Anyway, here's the (pre-season) scouting report on the Pacers from CNN-SI. 
The game is Wednesday, November 14, at 7 pm.

-Under the new defensive rules, teams are going to be able to double 
Jermaine O'Neal front and back, so to be effective he'll need to supplement 
his post game with a jump shot facing the basket.

-As good a shot blocker as O'Neal is, they don't really seem to funnel 
their defense in to him. It would help if they had another guy capable of 
defending inside. That would allow O'Neal to explode in from the weak side 
and block shots.

-Of their young guys, Al Harrington is learning the quickest. He plays 
hard, he's developed a decent jump shot, and with his size he can play the 
three and still rebound well.

Jalen Rose can play the one, two or three, but I think he's best for them 
at the point with the mismatches he and Reggie Miller can create. As much 
as they need Rose to score, they also need him to set up his teammates. The 
onus is on Jalen to figure out what the team needs each game.

-Travis Best doesn't start, but he should understand that he can have a 
real impact on the game as a change of pace to Rose.

-There's a lot of talk about Michael Jordan's playing small forward at 38, 
but look at Miller: He's 36, he hasn't taken any years off, and he's still 
one of the best at a position dominated by much younger players. Reggie has 
missed only four games over the last five years because he knows how to 
take care of his body. When he draws fouls, it's usually a bump foul -- he 
gets you in the air and gets you to bump him rather than flying at the rim 
and getting slammed to the floor.