Re: More draft thoughts

["j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

At 13:03 28/06/01 -0400, Alexander Wang wrote:
>I think that so far, Wallace has had a few opportunities. First, he could
>have tried to ship Walker off to Atlanta for the #3 pick, Lorenzen Wright,
>and Brevin Knight. I don't know if that would have beaten out the Shareef
>offer, but say it did.

After all that's been said this month, particularly by Peter May, mocking 
the Boston brass for praising the talent in this draft, in the end you see 
two legitimate "20-10" NBA players on the cusp of their prime years traded 
for the second and third overall picks in a draft most viewed as evenly 
distributed in talent all the way down to the tenth pick (Rodney White and 
Battier both legitimately flirted with being #1 overall).

If I were a journalist, to me that's the headline in a draft wrap-up article.

Brand and Shareef will likely give you 20-10 for at least another 
half-dozen years, yet they were deemed worth trading for the potential in 
this draft.

As for Krause, he's brought the next generation of "Twin Towers" back to 
the Eastern Conference in Tyson Chicken and Chicken Curry. Let's just hope 
Tyson is no better than the "next Ralph Sampson". I hope there is a swing 
back East in the balance of power. The Lakers benefited from the higher 
level of regular season competition this year, just as Boston used to in 
the first half of the 1980s.

>Second, he could have packed the #10 and #11 and the #21 to move up to #7
>and grab Eddie Griffin. That definitely beats Houston's offer; maybe we
>keep the #21 pick but whatever.

Alex I think that trounces the Houston offer. In a 10-deep or 12-deep 
draft, Houston was on the outside looking in. It would have sufficed to 
offer #10 and #11 and kept the Joe Forte pick. I view that already as a far 
superior offer.

>I think that this is the type of player you
>get that lets you move Antoine to SF.

Or keep Toine there like Bird and have Eddie G be our modern-day McHale.

>Third, he can do what he did: draft the best available player. I think the
>decision at #21 could have gone to Parker: drafting the #2 player on your
>board with a relatively low pick to fill a need wouldn't kill you. But at
>#10 and #11, I don't think there's any question that drafting the best
>player was the right decision. All of those center prospects look like, at
>best, a marginal improvement over our three headed center rotation.

They talk of Joe Johnson as a Paul Pierce clone (while Kedrick Brown sounds 
like a rare freak of nature). Obviously Pierce was a more productive 
19-year-old college sophomore while Johnson was a better 18-year-old 
freshman. Johnson had ankle surgery, not just and ankle injury. As soon as 
he rested for three games mid-season last year, he was back on his 
superstar trajectory.

But Johnson is a bit less consistent than Pierce. My point is that if Joe 
Johnson shows something in practices, Pierce still has a far, far higher 
trade value if we move for a big man or sign and trade.

Paul Pierce has become the symbol of the new Celtics and I'm loathe to 
trade him (I'd rather have Pierce's future than Reggie Lewis' future had he 
not died) but he'd bring a lot more in a trade than any of the rookies or 
Walker.

I'm jumping way ahead of the game. Let's drop the subject.

>So now we are really deep at that spot. If they all pan out and we are
>fixed at our lineup, then our team is structurally unsound, like the
>Knicks. But quality, excess talent is the best trading material. Pheonix
>had three high quality point guards in Kidd, Kevin Johnson, and Steve Nash.
>They traded Nash for the pick that became Shawn Marion. Indiana traded
>Antonio Davis to get high into the draft, because they still had Dale
>Davis. Realistically, the only way to add quality talent at the center
>position is going to be by putting together a package involving an
>extremely talented wing player. You're not going to get it in the low
>lottery, you're not going to get it by trading Kenny Anderson.

Excellent analysis as always. Here's my scenario. If everything pans out as 
you say, trade one of our top performers for the first round pick of one of 
next year's bottom feeders. If Brand could give you a number two, then 
Pierce might get you a number two next year (Jason Williams or your homeboy 
Yao Ming).

>I'm comfortable with this outcome. It's nice to be set with the players
>you'll have for the next five years, but it's more important to stock the
>lineup with talent first. I'd be extremely surprised if Johnson, Kedrick
>Brown, and Forte are all still on this team in three years. I would hope
>that two of them have developed enough to compete as starters, and one is
>packaged with Battie, say, for a top inside player.

Good call. We should build the talent in the organization regardless of 
depth at any particular position.

>In the meantime, I'm hoping for an upgrade over Stith at the swingman
>position. Stith averaged 9.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg (.8 offensive), 2.2 apg on 40%
>shooting, 38% from 3pt range, in 32 mpg. If a rookie (Johnson, probably)
>steps in, he may not be as good on defense and he'll get screwed by the
>refs for a while. But you'd hope that given the minutes, he'd do a bit
>better on the offensive boards, shoot a little better, average a few more
>points. The net effect might be very small, which would be fine for a
>rookie year, in my opinion. Best (realistic) case in my mind would be 15
>ppg, 5 rpg - like Mercer's rookie year, but better rebounding, 3 point
>range, and better synergy with Walker and Pierce.

Boy does Joe Johnson sound perfect as a "synergy" player.

As for the Katz version hinting he's Boston's second coming of Dante 
Bichette/John Valentin, I'm sure they'll all get with the program if we 
start winning.

I noticed in the pre-draft transcript of Joe Johnson's comments posted by 
Francis Hsu, he already sounded like a man who is very economical with 
words. It sounded very deadpan in an Arnold Shwarzeneger kind of way. Katz 
may be reading too much into it. He sounds like the kind of all-business 
basketball warrior I'd like to see in Boston. If not Joe Johnson, then 
Kedrick Brown, who looks like he's all set to go to war. I really feel he's 
the one who is going to steal the show at the Shaw League. That's my 
hope/prediction.

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