Draft thoughts

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

We drafted three swingmen, Joe Johnson at 10 and Kedrick Brown at 11
projecting as 2/3 types, and Forte as a shooting guard. Perhaps they
envision him as a 1/2 hybrid, with ballhandlers like Walker and Johnson on
the floor?

I know that some people question the redundancy. Chris Wallace made it very
clear that this was a best player available draft when he said that he
would have drafted Forte even if we had six other shooting guards under
contract. The problem is that most people overrate draft picks. We all like
to think that every first round draft pick is going to turn into a solid
starter in this league. I'm even reading complaints about our lack of a
second round pick. Realistically, what are the chances of a second round
pick making this roster with 14 guaranteed contracts, as the fourth rookie?

I didn't expect much from the pick at 21. If you can get a solid backup at
that spot, you're doing pretty well. Looking more closely at 10/11: a team
can support substantial minutes for three players at the 2/3 spot. Down the
road, if both Johnson and Brown develop into starter-quality players, we
could have a similar "problem" as New York with Sprewell, Houston, and
Rice. Of course, a starter-quality swingman on a rookie contract will have
a lot of trade value. I don't lose any sleep over this scenario, even
though the New York media loves to gnash their teeth about their problem.

Otherwise, one of the picks is going to perform better than the other and
end up as the eventual starter. The other one will get major backup minutes
if he's not a bust. No problems there. And the truth is, drafting at the
lower lottery nowadays is an inexact science, with the players all so
young. Having two shots to find a quality starter at the 2/3 spot is nice.

As for the type of players they are, they seem to complement Walker and
Pierce well. Pierce posting up smaller players is a major part of this
offense. That means that everyone else but the center has to be able to
shoot from outside, which means Walker at power forward. I'm in the
minority here but I don't think Walker at small forward works for this
team. If we had a certain type of power forward that could shoot, like
Gasol projected to be, yes, or a truly superior interior defender and
rebounder. Battie, or Potapenko, or Blount are not any of these. In any
case, you have Walker and Pierce capable of scoring 50 points, mostly in
the halfcourt. How do you complement that offensively? Well, you don't want
someone who is just a black hole and takes away touches. You want someone
who can generate extra touches with athleticism, by getting offensive
rebounds and fast break buckets. In addition, he needs to be able to shoot
from outside to prevent double teams, and to allow Pierce to post up. It
sounds like both Johnson and Brown have the potential to serve these roles,
with the possibility of greater things.

On defense, they'll hopefully be able to tighten up the perimeter defense
and rotate quickly when we need to trap superior inside players. I think
it'll be hard to be a good defensive team without inside help but that's
hard to come by. Wallace mentioned that he saw the Celtics being modelled
after a team like Milwaukee which puts pressure on its opponents through a
high-powered offense rather than a stifling defense. Milwaukee certainly
isn't a dominant defensive team on the interior, and came within a game of
the Finals.

Right now, under contract:
5. Battie, Potapenko, Blount.
4. Walker, Moiso, McCarty.
3. Williams, K. Brown.
2. Pierce, Johnson, Forte.
1. Anderson, Palacio, R. Brown.

I don't see us bringing back Stith, Griffin, Carr, or Herren. I don't see
us signing any undrafted free agents or CBA types, seeing as we have six
players who are either rookies or sophomores, at every position. I'd like
to see us use our free agent exception to fill a need at center or point
guard, but that may depend on budgetary considerations. The idea of picking
up Mohammed is pretty far-fetched. Atlanta has his Bird rights, and there's
no way they'd trade for Kenny Anderson.

Alex