RE: So What Do We Know So Far....

["j.hironaka" <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

At 16:29 26/06/01 -0400, OzerskyJA wrote:
>4.  Bill Simmons doesn't like Sagana Diop.  So what?  Who cares?  I'm
>willing to bet that if he's available, we'll take him, and I'd like to see 
>Troy Murphy
>complement him at 11.

I don't see it matching up that way. I strongly sense that the only 
scenario where Murphy comes to Boston is if the "slider" is an athletic 
small forward/guard. If instead, it is Diop or even Gasol (and assuming all 
other consensus top-ten picks since the end of this month are gone), Boston 
will NOT take Murphy. Pure speculation, I know, but here is what I think 
Boston's view of this year's draft is:

Hidden by the media's highschool draft angle, or there bigman draft angle, 
is an uncommon depth of super-athletic or well-rounded wing players in the 
#6 through #13 draft range. I actually view this as the eventual strength 
of the draft, just as I viewed the 1999 draft to be uncommonly rich in 
point guard talent (Francis, Baron Davis, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Will 
Avery). Three of those guys started out looking like rookie busts, and I 
think the same thing could happen this year with the guard-forwards.

This is a rich class in potential Pierce/Carter type athletes, or a poor 
man's version. They are Jason Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shane Battier, 
Kedrick Brown and Richard Jefferson and they will start getting picked off 
the board in very rapid succession just before or around the range we pick. 
I think the Boston brass realize this is the draft to get athletic and 
tough on the wing.

Last year you had a stiff but tall DerMar Johnson putting up mediocre 
college numbers, with a good jump shot. You also had a slow but 
multi-talented Mike Miller, also with good but not "no brainer" college 
productivity. By contrast, this year you have five guys who are in many 
cases more explosive than DerMar/Miller, and in many cases better-rounded 
as well, especially on defense and passing.

Take Jefferson for instance. If he doesn't match Kedrick Brown's 45 inch 
vertical and rapidly evolving long jump shot, then he's still awfully close 
and has more game experience guarding top college talent. Like the other 
four guys I mention, he also may be a better all-around prospect than any 
of last year's crop of swingmen. He may not be Air Canada, but at least 
he's got a ready made nickname ("Jefferson Airplane"). I saw a still photo 
of him jamming the ball where his forearm up to elbow was inside the rim. 
Scary stuff.

Since Boston doesn't have a top-five pick, my read on this year's NBA Draft 
it that Boston's "BPA" (best player available) is going to be an explosive 
leaper with surprisingly well-rounded skills, who can already help on 
defense and filling lanes next year if little else. I think Wallace and 
Papile will be very happy to see Murphy miraculously go #9, and even if 
that doesn't happen, there may be several scenarios where we'll pass twice 
on Murphy and go with the next tier of super athletes (Kedrick Brown most 
likely).

Here's my only Murphy scenario. If Joe Johnson or Richardson is the slider, 
then the Celts will risk making an enemy of Arn Tellum and pass on Kedrick 
for Murphy (or possibly go with Radmanovic) at #11.

Any other scenario such as where a bigger guy falls to us (Diop, Gasol or 
Chandler) and I feel fairly sure we'll use the 11th pick on a super 
swingman athlete outside the consensus top-ten. That's got to be Kedrick 
Brown. Or Jefferson.

If it is Battier who slides, I could still easily see us taking a riskier, 
more athletic and younger guard/forward with the next pick (Kedrick Brown) 
rather than a second "safe pick" in Murphy.

Pure speculation yes, but I wouldn't be shocked if Kedrick Brown had been 
headed toward a Stevie Francis JUCO impact had he chosen to spend a year at 
the NCAA level. Let's not write him off because of where he went to school.

If Wallace and Papile really are thinking outside the box, I believe it is 
to take a non-need player in the Pierce/Carter mode, realizing that the 
long range "BPA" available to us in this year's draft will probably be of 
player of that type. This is pure b.s./speculation on my part. I know they 
may think Murphy will get into the mix with Walker/Moiso next year, and 
that he is very skilled and tough, but they probably view him as the "worst 
case scenario", "safe pick" if all falls apart, kind of guy.

I'll be happy, incidentally, if he is our pick. I'll be smiling along with 
the rest of the Celtics fans. No way are we going to overthrow the current 
NBA power structure via this route, but I'll be pleased to see the Irish guy.

Boy am I long-winded. Can't wait for it to be all over and shut myself up. :-)

Joe

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