76er recipe for upset victory

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

http://204.202.129.224/brown6-5.html

I found this offering on sporttalk pretty insightful - almost prophetic
regarding the foul shot situation.

Go 6ers! Whup on the snakers!!

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HOW THE SIXERS WILL SURVIVE
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by Terry Brown
sportsTALK.com

Allen Iverson sat out Game 3 of the Sixers-Bucks Eastern Conference
Championship Series because Philadelphia had already lost Game 2 and head
coach Larry Brown knew that they absolutely had to have a post-triage MVP
for a must-win Game 4 in Milwaukee.
Sixer point guard Eric Snow absolutely had to score 18 points on 7 of 9
shooting in a must-win Game 5 of the same series despite the
recently-inserted pin in his broken ankle and the fact that he would score
only 26 points in the 6 other series games.

Jumaine Jones, who scored a total of 57 points last year as a rookie,
absolutely had to start in place of George Lynch, the best defensive player
on the team, who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the playoffs,
because Aaron McKie was already starting in place of the aforementioned
injured Eric Snow.

Rookie Raja Bell, who played a total of 30 minutes during the regular
season, absolutely had to hit  4 of 6 shots for 10 points in 9 minutes in a
must-win Game 7 for the Philadelphia Sixers to advance to the NBA Finals
after surviving 18 playoff games out of a possible 19 in which they lost
homecourt advantage and faced double-digit deficits in pivotal games at
least once in every series.

Now, all the Sixers absolutely have to do is beat the heavily-favored Los
Angeles Lakers who are 11-0 in the playoffs, arguably sport the two best
players in the league and the most-decorated coach in the modern era, and
haven't lost in more than two months.

Absolutely.

This is how the Sixers will survive a must-win Game 7 in Los Angeles after
squeaking out three victories in much the same fashion.

First Quarter

Sucker punch the defending champs as soon as the bell rings. Have Allen
Iverson cross-over Kobe Bryant on national television for his next Reebok
commercial and make sure the youngster knows about it. Shaq has already
crowned Kobe king. Who are you and me to argue? Give him the same amount of
shots as Iverson and he would have averaged 33 points per game this year to
lead the league while grabbing more rebounds and dishing out more assists
and shooting better from the field, three-point range and the free throw
line than his Sixer counterpart.

But he isn't perfect. When Kobe is in foul trouble for an extended period of
time (meaning 5 or 6 fouls), the Lakers have barely survived with a 7-8
record and are 1-3 when he does foul out. But since Kobe has never had more
than 4 fouls in the playoffs this year, the Lakers have rolled quite easily.
He's been able to slack off his man, roam the passing lanes and get out into
the open court for a game-breaking dunk.

But the Sixers can force the issue here. With Allen Iverson and Aaron McKie,
they happen to have the most prolific starting frontcourt that the Lakers
will face this playoffs. Iverson has already had games of 54, 52, 46, 45 and
44 this postseason and has never been shy about shooting percentages. He
scored 26 points in a single fourth quarter already. Between the Raptors and
Bucks series, McKie had a string of eight consecutive games where he
averaged 20-plus points per contest.

Sixers: 48 ppg
Blazers: 34 ppg
Spurs: 27 ppg
Kings: 15 ppg

The Sixers need to pressure Kobe into defending shots and penetration. The
young stud knows only one speed and absolutely feels he has to challenge the
player he's guarding. This has led to his numerous fouls throughout his
career. Of the 14 players who received Defensive Player of the Years votes,
no one committed more fouls per game than Kobe Bryant except teammate
Shaquille O'Neal. And Kobe's even upped that total to 3.5 in the playoffs.

Shaq: 3.5
Kobe Bryant: 3.3
Theo Ratliff: 3.3
Bruce Bowen: 3.3
Tim Duncan: 3.0
Anthony Mason: 2.9
Doug Christie: 2.8
David Robinson: 2.7
Shawn Marion: 2.7
Dikembe Mutombo: 2.5
Kevin Garnett: 2.5
Ben Wallace: 2.4
Jason Kidd: 2.2
Allen Iverson: 2.1

Just ask Phil. Kobe is competitive to a fault and it would kill him to see
Iverson go off on one of his 40 or 50 point games. In fact, it may force him
into the regular-season funk that caused the famous Laker rift and get him
out of his all around game. Remember, he'll be up against the MVP of the
league and the guy who bumped him off the All NBA First Team. The kid has
very few weaknesses in his game. In this case, the Sixers have got to go
right at him and expose his youthful exuberance as a flaw.

Second Quarter

Pick a fight with someone their own size. Let Shaq and Kobe get their 60.
Over an 82 game season, they averaged a combined 57. You're not going to
stop them now. But you can cut down on the Lakers scoring by chasing Derek
Fisher off the three-point line. Don't rotate off him to double-team or help
and allow Kobe or Shaq to kick it out to him. Sounds simple, but this is a
complete turnaround in philosophy that was developed when Fish was a career
38% field goal shooter.

Let Rick Fox get the open looks. Give the freebies to Horace Grant. Neither
of those two players have averaged double-digits in 3 years. Fox is at 9.6
with a season high of only 22. He's never scored more than 34 in a game in
his entire career and only went over 20 points three times this season.
Grant's averaging 8.5 ppg and his season high was only 19. Isaiah Rider, who
was left off the playoff roster, was next in scoring for the Lakers at 7.6.
Harper, who has a total of 17 minutes this playoffs, followed him at 6.5
during the regular season. No other Laker averaged more than 5 points per
game.

The new Fish averaged 12 ppg during the regular season and is shooting 39%
from three-point range. But when the Lakers win, he's shot 47%. When the
Lakers have lost, he's shot 19%. That is a huge gap. It gets even bigger in
the playoffs because Fisher has accounted for 25 of the Lakers 62 three
pointers (40%) on a phenomenal 51% shooting from long range. Without Fisher,
the Lakers are shooting 28% from three. The Lakers aren't a very good long
range team in the first place, having finished 20th in the league at 34%.

This will not only hurt the Lakers as a team, but also Fisher as an
individual because more than 33% of his shots are three pointers. He is a
below average pull up shooter and terrible driver with limited court vision.
Allen Iverson is not only the quickest player in the league but also has
great hands. Remember, he led the league in steals at 2.51. He can lock down
Fish, who is 6-foot-1, without his height being a problem (or did you not
see Sam Cassell at 6-foot-3 getting his jump shot over Iverson at will).
Iverson can face guard him up and down the court, taking away Fisher's
three-point shot, new-found fame, and the Lakers 3rd scorer.

Third Quarter

Clutch and grab at every opportunity. Make the game as ugly as possible. The
Sixers must stop the bleeding before it begins. In other words, call a
timeout. Fake an injury. Substitute. Throw your shoe at the shot clock. Do
anything to keep the Lakers from getting into one of their cut throat
quarters. This usually happens in the second half where they've outscored
their playoff opponents 589 to 474. That's almost 10.5 points per game over
an 11 game period. And while the bulk of the damage is usually done in a
single quarter, the Lakers don't let up. Their quarter record in 11 second
halves is 16-4-2 even though they've won 7 of those games by double digits.

And yet despite the Sixers reputation of being a gutty, come from behind
team, they've only outscored their opponents in the second half by 2.6
points per game over a 18 game postseason. Even throwing out the loses
doesn't help much as the Sixers only average 4.1 more points in the second
half in games that they've won.

The Sixers biggest second half came in Game 6 of the Milwaukee series when
the scored 69 points and still lost the game by 10. And where they've
outscored the Pacers by 16 points in a second half in one game, they've been
outscored by Indiana by 16 in another.   Other than that, the Sixers have
had only two other second halves where they've outscored their playoff
opponent by double-digits. Philadelphia averaged only 94.7 points per game
during the regular season (15th in the league) and cannot afford to exchange
volleys in between quarters with a Laker team that is averaging more than a
104 points per game in the playoffs.

Fourth Quarter

Have no pity. Leave shame at the door. It's time to sell the Sixers soul for
an NBA Championship. Philadelphia absolutely must make their free throws. As
mentioned earlier, Kobe and Shaq foul. When they do, make them pay. The
Lakers were the absolute worst shooting free throw team in the entire league
during the regular season at 68% and they've actually gotten worse during
the postseason falling to 67%. But with the team attacking the rim so
viciously, they get to the line so dang often that they can afford to shoot
this horrible percentage and still not have it become a problem.

In the regular season, the Lakers made 1594 free throws at 68% to their
opponents 1595 at 75%. In the playoffs, the Lakers have made 227 free throws
at 67% to their opponents 226 at 79%. See what I mean.

The Sixers are a slashing team, too, but are only an average free throw
shooting team at 74%. They've boosted that percentage in the playoffs to 77%
but will have to do even better if they are going to squeeze out four games
and shock the world. And they can. In fact, five times during the playoffs,
they've shot better than 80% from the line, including 16 for 16 and 25 for
26 games against Toronto. In these five particular games, they've shot 89%.

At the end of a game, these points will be monumental. The Lakers have
gotten an average of 30.5 free throws a game and made 20.6 in the playoffs.
The Sixers have gotten an average of 26.4 free throws a game and made 20.5
in this same period of time. Start sacrificing small animals now.  With Shaq
grabbing every defensive rebound and Kobe drilling every clutch shot, the
Sixers will need to be nearly perfect from the line to stay close.

Overtime

Chew off your leg to escape Staples Center with a victory. The Sixers can
heal tomorrow. They've already faced game-ending and season-ending injuries.
Allen Iverson's tooth is still loose, Matt Geiger slipped his backbone and
who knows if Dikembe Mutombo was ever fully cured of the Malaria he acquired
earlier this year.

This is a must-win Game 7 and the Lakers haven't had to face one all post
season while the Sixers have been scratching for their very existence for
the better part of two months. They've been down in a series, won on the
road, had to come from behind in individual games and now are putting their
entire season on the line for five minutes. They've been blown out in games
and returned the next day to tell about it. Their season already came down
to a final shot and they survived. Twice.

You knew it would come to this. If the Sixers are going to shock the world
and slay the giant, they're going to have to do it the only way they know
how. The only way they can. It will be a long, drawn-out series that will go
into an extra period in the final game when each and every shot is do or
die. Expect to see Mutombo bleeding from both elbows, Snow on crutches, some
guy you've never seen before guarding Kobe Bryant and Iverson in a soft cast
when the opening buzzer sounds for the final period of the entire NBA
season.

Now, you tell me who's the real underdog in an absolute must-win situation?