Re: Sixers/Boston circa 1996-97

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

Joe, don't set the bar too high. Remember, this was a 36-win team. I don't
think they were as bad as they showed the first half of the season under
Pitino or as good as they showed under O'Brien. I think 36 wins probably was
about right, maybe a little low. I don't think the Celts are a .500 team
right now. Plus, the draft picks figure to be developmental types, so I
expect any improvement spurred by them will come in 2002 at the earliest.
The Celts' best in-house chance to improve comes from Jerome Moiso, like it
or not. I think we all need to hope his rookie campaign was Reggie
Lewis-like and that he'll show the same improvement and contribute the same
way Reggie did his sophomore season.

Throw in the fact that Bryant Stith's return is very much in question (I
wouldn't re-sign him, although I love his contribution), and the fact that
the Celts remain a team that from all indications will start the season with
Milt Palacio and Tony Battie/VP/Mark Blount at the two most crucial
positions on the floor, and there remain some grave concerns. Will there be
other moves? Sure, but it seems Walker and Pierce are here to stay, and
everyone else on the roster is a spare part, so don't expect any significant
talent via trade. The one exception would be trading the draft picks for a
veteran, but it doesn't sound like the Celts are considering that (nor
should they).

Plus, Atlanta is going to be drastically improved, Indy will be better,
Washington will be good if MJ and Barkley come back, Orlando could be great.
I don't think there's any question the Eastern Conference is going to be
much stronger next season, and a few teams figure to make more significant
improvements than the Celtics. Plus, I'm of the opinion that the new rules
will hurt the Celts.

The toughest move is from mediocre to good in the NBA, and I'm not so sure
the Celts are ready to make that jump. It's certainly possible, but any talk
of 50 wins probably is overly optimistic. I wish someone more ambitious than
myself would go back and try to find any team that made a 14-win jump
without adding a bonafide star via draft/free agency, etc.

The Celts may very well sneak into the playoffs next season, but I wouldn't
hope for much more than that. I think 2002 may be their coming out party.

Mark




Joe H. wrote:

With the right draft picks and any improvement at all from 
Walker/Pierce, we just might join the half-dozen or so 50-win NBA teams 
next year. In the best case scenario, I think 46 to 50 wins is actually 
possible. If we can win 45 or so games next year despite all the young 
rookies, I really feel we will have actually turned the corner toward an 
eventual appearance in the Finals. Fewer wins than that and I'd be 
considerably more pessimistic about our future upside.