bskball.com: Celtics Draft Review

[Josh Ozersky <josh_ozersky@yahoo.com>]

Nothing new here, but I think it provides a good
summary. 

Three Little Maids From School

The 2001 NBA Draft has finally come and gone, so long
anticipated, cogitated over, discussed, and dreaded. 
The Celtics have added more talent in one night than
at any time since, at the very least, draft night
1980:  a good twenty years.  And yet Celtics fans
across the world also find themselves confused and
maybe even a little vexed.  In truth, it's hard to get
our minds wrapped around the momentous events of June
27th, 2001.  But maybe this wrapup can help put it all
in perspective.

To understand why the Celtics did what they did and to
judge it properly means looking at the two competing
philosophies regarding the draft.  One school of
thought, favored particularly by the seers of sports
journalism, is predicated on the idea of filling team
needs.  Thus, the Celtics are found to be weakest at
the Center and Point Guard positions, and so are
expected to draft, say, Brendan Haywood of North
Carolina and Jamal Tinsley of Iowa State.  The second
school of thought advocates drafting the best
available athlete (BAA) and was the guiding vision of
Red Auerbach during all his years as the Celtics'
architect.  One doesn't need to look back to the
Russell years to see the logic of BAA, however; the
textbook example used by BAA advocates came in the
1984 draft, when the Portland Trailblazers, with Clyde
Drexler safely on the roster, went ahead and drafted
Sam Bowie of Kentucky over Michael Jordan.  It's not
really fair to the Blazers, since Bowie might have
been a great center had he not been injured, and
nobody knew Michael Jordan would turn into the most
dominant player of all time.  But the point is true in
principal anyway, and has been born out again and
again in history, particularly by late-lottery teams
such as the Celtics, who drafted plodding big men like
Eric Montross for need when talented players like
Eddie Jones are still on the board.  Or, to take a
more recent (and still painful) example, who trade a
pick that would have been Shawn Marion for the rights
to Vitaly Potapenko.

So the Celtics, with Haywood, Troy Murphy, Vladimir
Radmonivic, and many other talented big men on the
board, not to mention all of the point guards, went
ahead and drafted three guys who essentially play the
same position -- one already occupied by our two best
players.  Yes, that's right.  The five best players on
the Celtics all play the same position now. 
Technically, Antoine Walker may be a power forward,
and Joe Forte a pure shooting guard who may see some
time at point, but the truth is that Walker is a
perimeter player, and the 2 and 3 positions are
identical in the O'Brien sets.  So there are some
major roster questions about this crew.  But I think I
might have some answers.

First, though, let's look at what we got in this
draft.  Joe Johnson of Arkansas, the tenth pick, has
been compared to Jamal Mashburn, because of his smooth
all-around game and placid (some say impassive)
demeanor.  But I actually think that the utterly
fluid, intuitive game Johnson brings is more
reminiscent of Lamar Odom or Penny Hardaway.  With an
uncanny floor game for a player his age, Johnson is
the kind of player who is a threat to out-think his
oppenent OR blow by him for a leaning high bank shot
off the corner of the backboard.  You just don't know
what a guy like Johnson will do with the ball, and
when you realize how young he is, and how cerebral and
unselfish his play, and what kind of ball-handler he
is at a solid 6'8"...it's kind of overwhelming.  I
have to admit that I have been driving the Joe Johnson
bandwagon since february.  I really like this guy, and
wanted him as the first pick all along.

But who would the second pick be?  Like many teams, I
was intrigued by Sagana Diop, who was (and is) being
seen as a potential Shaquille / Mutumbo type talent. 
Well, who wouldn't want that?  I cursed aloud,
therefore, when Cleveland copped him at eight.  As it
turns out, I should have cheered.  The Celtics were
actually pretty far down on Diop, his seven foot frame
and massive body notwithstanding.  The brain trust
estimated the guy as having 22% body fat, which is
probably even more than me.  And of course he has no
skills whatsoever now, even by the standards of high
school players.  

Still, the Celtics drafted a guy at 11 whom nobody has
even heard of in 6'7" Kedrick Brown.  Apparently,
Brown is considered a force of nature a la Shawn
Marion -- an intensely motivated, burly forward with a
45" vertical leap, a dead-on three point shot, and
off-the-charts athleticism.  It's said that had he
showed off his athleticism in division I instead of an
obscure junior college in florida, he would have been
a top-three lock in next year's draft.  Maybe so,
maybe not; who cares?  The point is that this guy
infuses the team with an x-factor the Celtics have
basically never had.  Jerome Moiso is an athletic
prodigy, but is physically and mentally weak, and
seems to have the motivational fire of a Heaven's Gate
cult member.  Brown is a monster of aggression, with
everything to prove, and a whole league of
better-known and better-paid players to take out his
aggressions on.  His dunks alone are going to make
Boston fans salivate, and his spot-up shooting will
dement opposing defenses.  

And speaking of spot-up shooting, could even the most
ardent supporter of drafting for need have a problem
taking Joe Forte at 21?  Admittedly, Loren Woods was
still on the board, but after his Ed Muskie-like
emotional breakdowns at several pre-draft workouts,
nobody wanted any part of him.  Forte is a prodigal
talent, a proven force on offense whose pedigree and
performance in the ACC make him the one of the safest
pick in the draft at nearly any position.  He is also
a longtime favorite of Red Auerbach himself, who
apparently has been following his career since high
school.  The one knock on Forte has been that he is
ONLY 6'4" and a half, and some savants consider this
undersized for a shooting guard.  It's no longer a
bonus to be as big as a forward as a shooting guard;
now it's a necessity.  To support this ludicrous
claim, critics point out that Forte had trouble
getting his shot off against Gary Payton and Kevin
Garnett in one of those pro-am debacles he was invited
to last year, as a true freshman!  The fact is, Forte
isn't particularly athletic, and probably wouldn't be
an impact scorer right off the way a Courtney
Alexander might.  But since we will be bringing him
off the bench, and kicking out to him for open
jumpers, he should contribute right away.

And that's the crux of how we are scratching our
heads.  How will all three of these guys contribute? 
We need their help this year; the organization has
already told Peter May to tell us that there won't be
any free agent help, with the possible exception of a
resigned Bryant Stith -- an almost amazing
possibility, given our desperate need for rebounding,
and Stith's swingman position.  (Keeping Stith would
mean that we had eight wing scorers on the roster). 
So where will they play?  Well, it's clear that
Antoine will continue to be called the power forward,
and may actually see more time down low this year,
since he is working on his body and may actually be in
condition to finish around the rim for the first time
in his career, though that remains to be seen.  Three
and two are a mystery, though it's clear that Pierce
will start at one position, and Stith/Williams at the
other, at least until Joe Johnson is ready to take his
rightful place.  Brown will probably get spot minutes
in the first part of the season, earning a more
significant role after the all-star break and
relegating Eric Williams or at least Walter McCarty to
the scrap heap.  And Forte will get some minutes at
shooting guard, and some minutes at point guard, where
he will actually be a second shooting guard, hanging
out at the perimeter, and defending the opposing
point.  (It might be asked how many minutes there will
be at point, given the Antoine experiment, Kenny
Anderson's return, and Milt Palacio's development, but
I suspect that we may have seen the last of Kenny
Anderson.)

That's my prediction for where those guys will see
time.  But it's now how I would play them.  Given the
fact that I (and many others) see Joe Johnson more as
a scorer/playmaker in the Odom/Hardaway mold, I would
eventually like to see him as our starting point
guard.  Once Brown comes around, I would like to see
him start at shooting guard, backed up by Forte as the
first guard off the bench, bringing instant offense to
worn-out defenses after the manner of our great sixth
men over the years.  Pierce would be our starting
three, Antoine our starting four, and Battie/Blount
our starting center, with Jerome Moiso as the first
frontcourt reserve.  If Moiso needs starter minutes to
develop, I would trade Battie, since I believe that
Moiso has comparable upside to Tyson Chandler, and has
the ball skills to be a great pivot.  But that's just
me; I'm a believer, and the draft finds me at my most
indulgent and credulous.  Still, if Johnson is
anything
like the kind of player I think he is; and Brown is
half the athlete the scouts who know him best say; and
Forte doesn't forget how to score over the course of
the summer; then you can see how the average Celtics
fan could be forgiven for having trouble imagining
what all three guys could bring to this team over the
next few years.

Call me crazy, but I think the Celtics just made
themselves one of the top teams in the East in pure 
talent.  And I expect them to finish in the middle of
the playoff pack this year, barring major injuries,
heart attacks, stabbings, or drug overdoses.  In other
words, I think fifteen-year cycle of suffering has
passed, and the clouds are ready to part.  Look up to
the sky, Celtics fans.  The sun is ready to shine on
us again.


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