Cap math (was: In pursuit on #17)

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

I love the sort of long-range analysis that Mark Piotrowski presented. A 
few detail points about the salary cap math.

One of the main things is that there are raises built into the contracts of 
just about all of our current players. I think that's why we can't even add 
a player like Nazr Mohammed via free agency. Under the new CBA the max 
raise was 12.5% per year (on the first year amount); that may add around 
$4M over all our players. Starting with the current $45M, you add $10M for 
Pierce's new contract, $4M for raises, and subtract $3M for McCarty and $2M 
for Pierce's old contract. You'd be at $54M, which would preclude using our 
$4.5M exemption.

On the other hand, a sign and trade might be workable. If we really think 
that he's a superior player to any of our current centers, and he tells 
Atlanta that he wants to play in Boston - where he'd presumably start - you 
may convince them to work out a sign and trade involving Battie or Vitaly. 
In particular Vitaly's base year status is expiring soon, and he doesn't 
seem like a Chris Wallace type of player. If Atlanta can't keep Mohammed, 
you'd think they might consider Vitaly as a nice complementary backup 
center/PF behind the Ratliff/Shareef/Kukoc front line, which is talented 
but skinny.

Getting back to Mark's plan. Let's say we can't make the trade for Coleman. 
Again, I'm guessing we'll be at $54M next year. We'll add another $1M thru 
the draft and $3M in internal raises (since Kenny won't be getting a raise 
:). We'll lose $9M off Kenny's salary and $3M off Randy Brown, which puts 
us at $46M. That won't leave us in a position to pursue a free agent; we'll 
probably be right at the cap. However, we can pursue a middle class free 
agent with the exception since we'll have enough breathing room under the 
luxury tax threshold.

Now if we can pull off the Coleman trade and renounce Moiso, we might get 
another $9-10M under the cap. I'm not sure it would be feasible for 
Charlotte to pull off this trade though, even though they're getting a good 
return in talent, because they're facing a similar luxury tax situation 
with Baron Davis due for an extension at the same time as Pierce. They 
could renounce PJ Brown and Elden Campbell at that time (who will be 
getting a bit old), but I would think they would also rather have salary 
cap space than Eric Williams and Battie. And even $9-10M may not be able to 
get the top free agents, especially Duncan (the max is higher once you have 
6 years in the league like he will at that point). Even so, it would be 
tempting. As amazing as it sounds, I'm just not sure that Charlotte would 
take the deal even though they're evidently dying to get rid of Coleman, 
just because of cap reasons. And I'm not sure that the cap will be around 
$46M, which is what I'm assuming here. If it comes in at $40M, say, you've 
basically given Battie away for nothing. On the other hand, if it's $50M, 
you would have a shot at Duncan.

But even if we can't pull off a cap-clearing deal, I'd be comfortable 
because I think the sign-and-trade is becoming the more practical route. 
Free agents want the sign-and-trade anyway, because under the CBA rules, 
you get more money that way. Now if you have the cap space, you get some 
extra leverage, like Orlando did. But remember that they ended up acquiring 
Hill and McGrady through sign-and-trades anyway. By that time the current 
draft picks may have developed. I know that it's nice to dream about 
getting Duncan without giving up any talent, but I think we can afford to 
trade away a few players if he's coming aboard :).

Anyway, I really enjoyed the analysis. I think we'd have to know more about 
where the salary cap is headed to decide whether that Coleman trade would 
be worth it, even if it's feasible. I think it's probably a better bet to 
go for straight trades and sign-and-trades rather than free agents, in the 
way that Philadelphia did. They are a better comparative city than Orlando 
or Los Angeles or Pheonix in terms of attractiveness to free agents, and 
they're built mainly on drafts and trades.

Alex