Re: My fear...

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

OzerskyJA wrote:

> My fear is that we get stuck with only middling talent in the draft and via
> free agency.  I can't believe some team with a pick somewhere in the 4-7 area
> wouldn't want to pick up two lotto picks and/or Vitaly Potatpenko for their
> pick.

I'm still wondering if Donnie Walsh in Indiana might have an interest in VP as a
bruiser off the bench and good locker room influence, since Vitaly continued
this season playing well against the Pacers as in the past. I don't know what
we'd get in return but they have some young players with El Busto tendencies
(Jonathan Bender maybe) and moreover Croshere was vastly overpaid for his
overall performance this year. VP might be a good fit out West as well.

Unlike the NFL or MLB drafts, I can't think of any instance where an NBA team
has traded down from a high lottery pick for the sake of multiple lower picks.
If this were feasible, Orlando would have succeeded a few years ago in trying to
move the 12th, 13th and 15th picks just a nudge upward to land a Jason Williams,
Paul Pierce or Nowitzki instead of Doleac, Harpring and Keon Clark (who they
traded). I think the Celtics are stuck where they are, and that it isn't the
worst place to be.

Also, I think it was prudent to keep Chris Wallace and Leo Papile through the
draft rather than fire everyone and create a void, given their comparative
advantage in regularly following the prep basketball scene. Wallace is on record
backing Tracy McGrady in 1997, while Papile has coached against all the top AAU
teams over the years. If I were Wallace and I got fired, I would take my entire
scouting dossier with me to my next employer rather than hand it over to Piss
Pond, our CEO douchebag pardon my French. To me that's leverage.  If Pond scum
feels like firing Wallace the day after the draft, I for one wouldn't think
that's wierd or illogical at all compared to firing him now.

One trend I hope Wallace and Papile follow is how Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler
both spent their high school years trying to play in the style of Kevin Garnett,
just like Jonathan Bender and Stromile Swift before them. Every big man wants to
be the next Garnett, not the next Lew Alcinder. I can't say I blame them and
these guys are mind bogglingly tall and talented. But the thing is for every
Kevin Garnett there could be a Walter McCarty, who after all is very athletic,
an excellent dribbler for his size, and can be a threat to hit the triple on
occasion. It is tough to know at 18 how a kid will turn out. Take a look at all
the past McDonald's game rosters and high school players of the year (Chris
Duhon BTW was last year's Parade POY I believe). Other brilliant, instant lotto
pick caliber McDonald's studs like Corey Maggette and Zach Randolph couldn't
even earn 20 minutes per game of playing time at the NCAA level. I have nothing
against Zach Randolph, I'm just saying that objectively this demonstrates a bit
of a struggle adjusting to NCAA level defensive intensity, much less the NBA.
While I actually do favor drafting a high school player (or more broadly the
best talent available regardless of age) with at least one of our picks, but I
don't think it is some sort of proven "No Brainer" that this will work out
better than drafting a Battier or whomever. It's not like Battier has already
run out of upside. If you guys think that any prep player we draft will
automatically evolve into a steal based on the evidence of past NBA drafts, then
I'm sure someone out there also has some great "dot.com" stocks they'd love to
sell you at there original price two years ago.

I'm counting on Wallace and Papile to do their homework. Personally, I like to
blame Poultrino for drafting Moiso based on a few empty-gym workouts. I think
Poultrino believed he could better motivate a player lacking heart than other
coaches, and better teach a player with bad habits than other coaches. That's
why frog boy looked so seductive to him, despite inconsistent play, relatively
advanced age for a clueless player and forgettable college stats.

Not only is Moiso old, he actually looks even older. This is totally fuzzy and
unscientific, but at the amateur level I've always felt athletes owe their
relative capacity to dominate to the fact that they biologically mature at a
faster rate. You look at Shawn Kemp, that guy started getting wrinkles on his
face by his early twenties and is an old couch potato at the age of 28 or
whatever. And when I see face shots of college football offensive linemen from
FSU or Nebraska or wherever, they sometimes look older than I do (and I'm in my
mid-30s). I just go on and on sometimes. There goes my lunchbreak.

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