Re: two more going pro

[Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

OzerskyJA wrote:

> I'm always amazed when guys don't come out.  How can you
> forego certain riches, and take the chance of breaking your leg
> or whatever?  And that's not even taking into account the way
> guys stock tends to drop when they stay on (Shea Seals, John
> Wallace, etc. etc.).  Brown should come out; he's a top five pick
> if he does.  He's probably being intimidated by his mom or somebody.
> Marcus is also some kind of nut, going on about how he wants his
> degree.  Is he afraid of being denied tenure or something?

    To tell you the truth, I've always thought that basketball was a bit more
akin to baseball and boxing....where career paths are orchestrated carefully by
trainers/managers on the belief that an athlete's development rate can be ruined
if they get rushed too fast to a level above their heads. It's not quite the
same, but there are real similarities IMO.

    In basketball, confidence is everything in a player's decision to drive to
the rim or create and take their own tough shot. I think any prospect actually
needs and requires a lot of experience dominating the ball (including in a
play-making role) at amateur levels, not least for the creative trial-and-error
you would never dare experiment with if you go straight to playing against the
world's best and in a hierarchy where there are established stars who are
supposed to get the ball.

    Unless you have extreme, unshakeable confidence, a lot of years riding the
pine or turning down scoring opportunities in the NBA can turn you into a
stiffer, less aggressive player just as getting your fastball clobbered or
getting decked by a veteran boxer can permanently mess with your mechanics,
confidence and joy for the game. Look at how baseball handles minor league
assignments. It makes so much sense in my opinion because it really is a mental
game.

    Now it goes without saying that I'm crap as a baller, but I do know from
experience that a moment's hestitation or flash of self-doubt makes all the
difference in whether you can execute a cross-over, or take and make a shot
against an equal ballplayer. I think you need a lot of actual experience
dominating in order to later play as well as you are capable of against
superior or equal players. The NBA has a lot of early entries who you look at
years down the road and think "how did he get so tentative?" or "since when did
he become so inept on offense?". It's not just talent, it's confidence.

    Every year in the NBA draft you get a Zach Randolph type case. Basically
he's equivalent to a "phenom" in Double-A baseball, like say a Tony Blanco or
Juan Diaz in the Red Sox system. Randolph was the dominant player bar none of
the McDonald's All Star game. Last year was a transition year, and he
surprisingly failed to win a starting job on a great college team or make any
kind of statistical impact on the Big Ten. No big deal...he's still a great
prospect. But the thing is next year he should definitely start at MSU and he'll
likely dominate and hold the key in big, pressure games one after another. With
that added experience, he might be ready to immediately step into an NBA
starting lineup and deliver whupass, rather than risk riding the pine with
nothing but millions of dollars to spend on corrupting himself and doubting
himself. Maybe I'm just wacked out, but I'll bet years from now (or even today)
a guy like Jerome Moiso or Donnell Harvey would gladly give back a year of NBA
salary to have had a chance to help lead UCLA or Florida to a Final Four and
develop their confidence and games further. College is so once in a
lifetime....I imagine that's true especially if you get to participate in big
sports tournaments etc. A guy like Jerome with his slick French accent must have
met all the UCLA chicks for one thing, and these are not quite the skanky, money
vultures you'll find hanging around NBA arenas and Made Men posses. (Back in
college, my friends often kiddingly referred to UCLA as the "University of
Caucasians Living among Asians"...I don't know if you've heard that particular
one.)

    If you are severely retarded or something, then I can see how college life
can be a trying experience and why there may be no point in staying. I also
would understand if a player had parents and siblings who barely had enough
income to survive even another year, or lived in housing conditions so dangerous
and drug-addled that you would do anything to help them get them out of there
immediately. If that's the case with Zach Randolph or Tyson Chandler, then go
for it I say. To me it sounds like a classic quality-of-life sacrifice in
exchange for financial security type of thing.

****