Why the Celtics could be better

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

I tend to be an optimist, so despite two preseason losses, I've been
thinking about why the Celtics will be better this year than last year. I
did think that last year's team would be better than the 97-98 team, and
was wrong. Looking back, I think there were a few reasons. First, Walker
didn't play as well. Second, Pierce missed nine games. Third, Pitino tried
to prove in Pat Riley fashion that he could be successful coaching a tough
halfcourt defensive team. The team he assembled was unathletic and not
particularly big at the 4/5 (Fortson, Walker, Potapenko), weak defensively
at the 1 (Anderson, Barros), completely lacking in team shotblocking, and
young. Not a good combination. I know that Joe would argue that it's "the
system" but personally I don't think any system could turn that team into
an average defensive team. It's built around offensively talented players
that lack great athleticism, length, or experience.

Bad defensive teams have improved by adding experience -- Toronto is an
example. Pitino's approach this year is to add athleticism and length. If
it doesn't work, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next GM/coach trade
some promising young talent to get some aging veteran defender.
Philadelphia and Toronto did it. I don't see how these teams will ever make
it to championship level before their veterans get too old, and they could
have built through talented youth -- just think that Philadelphia could
have had a lineup of Iverson, Stackhouse, Pierce, and Van Horn, for
instance -- but their GMs' jobs are secure.

Here's why I have hope that we will succeed this year.

1. New length and athleticism in the front court. I didn't get to watch the
Spurs game but the positive reviews of Moiso are really encouraging. From
what I saw in the summer league game on ESPN, he's got a good feeling for
shotblocking. Blount should also help in this department, although I think
he needs to learn not to go after every shot.

2. Better defense at the point guard position. I think the point guard is
the most important perimeter defender. Hopefully Randy Brown will provide
some solid defense against teams with post-up point guards, as well as the
quick penetrating types.

3. Improvement from Paul Pierce. He seems to be recovering from his injury
extremely quickly. Even though he hasn't made than quantum leap like Vince
Carter, I think he's shown that he has the drive and discipline to improve
his game. Last year he added a new way of scoring -- getting to the foul
line with the ball fake. Paul just turned 23 and still has plenty of upside.

4. Those hoarded draft picks. I expect Pitino to use these up well before
the draft, because I just don't see us drafting three rookies next year. I
remember that Toronto traded two low first rounders for Kevin Willis, who
turned in a solid season for them. By the middle of the season, some
veteran team may be underperforming and be willing to head towards
rebuilding. 

There are other possibilities: Walker improving; Battie coming around;
unexpected contributions from guys like Stith, Herren, and Carr; the press
actually working like it did in that first year. But these are the four
that I think are most likely. I would love to see Pierce take it to the
next level.

Alex