Thoughts on next season

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

1. I was thinking about the prospects of all the teams in the Eastern
Conference next year. It seems to me that it will be relatively harder
to make the playoffs next year than it was this year. Last year, there
was an exodus of talent to the Western Conference as Orlando stripped
down its team, and Atlanta sent away Blaylock and Smith. That could
reverse this year if Duncan comes to Orlando, say. In general, Orlando
and Chicago, with their cap room and numerous draft picks, should both
improve drastically. And New Jersey, which has the #1 pick and performed
below their talent level last year, will also be shooting for the 
playoffs.

Teams that might be expected to slide are Charlotte if they lose Eddie
Jones, Toronto if they lose McGrady (along with the aging of guys like
Oakley and Willis), and Detroit if they lose Grant Hill. Of course, 
none of these guys are likely to leave the East even if they leave
their teams. Like everyone else, I don't expect Washington to be able
to do much, with no draft picks, no cap room, and aging talent. 
Indiana could decline if they decide to go in another direction and
jettison their veterans. 

2. The main improvement from the Celtics is going to have to come from
the existing roster. Rookies drafted around #11 rarely have big impacts
in their first season. And losing teams can't attract impact free agents
with the $2M exception. 

Let's start with Paul Pierce. I think he improved in his second season, but
many of us (myself included) were expecting more, because of the big
jumps that many players experience after their rookie year. His shift
in position makes it hard to evaluate the changes in statistics like
rebounding (down), blocks (down), and steals (up). One thing is sure,
he is statistically very good for his position in these categories. 
Looking at his scoring, he developed a fake and lean-in move reminiscent
of Reggie Miller, which resulted in many more trips to the line. 
Unfortunately, his three-point shooting declined from stellar to rather
average. Hopefully, he can regain his 3-pt touch, push up his 2-pt 
percentage by improving his shot selection. And as Pitino said, he will
truly be a star when his defense matches his offense. There are some
parallels with Kobe Bryant. I remember when people were saying that
moving Kobe to shooting guard was a mistake because he had success as
a small forward, partially because of his rebounding and partially 
because defense was tougher at SG. Now he's an all-NBA defender.

Onto Antoine Walker. When I predicted playoffs for the Celtics this year,
I compared them to 2 years ago and noted how all the talent was better.
Part of my mistake was assuming that Antoine would be as good as he was
in 1997-1998. One of the most glaring negatives is the three-point 
percentage of 25.6%. He refused to acknowledge that he couldn't hit it
anymore, shooting 285, 22nd in the league, with the worst percentage in
the top 50. He evidently realizes it's a problem so hopefully this will
be an easy improvement next year. His rebounding was also down, but for
once the Celtics outrebounded their opponents. I think that he can 
definitely improve in this area. 
   There were bright spots. His assists were up to 3.7, with dramatic 
mprovement in March (4.8) and April (6.2), which makes me think that
Pitino's vision of a 16-12-6 player aren't as far-fetched as it originally
sounded to me. His free throw shooting rose to 70%, which corrected
the glaring negative from the year before. And he shot 47% from
two-point range, which is quite respectable, and surprising for a
guy who supposedly leads the league in getting his shot blocked.
If Antoine had just given the ball to someone else every time he
felt like shooting a 3, he would have scored 17.8 ppg on 47% shooting.
I defended him last year when he was shooting 37% on 3's, but this
year there's no excusing it. Another plus: he played 82 games.
   I honestly think that no trade or free agent signing or draft pick
that we could make would have as much impact as Antoine could have by
getting in great shape and playing smart by not throwing up bad 3's
and using his great passing abilities. His line from the 16 games in
March is phenomenal: 22 ppg on 47% FG, 9.6 rpg, 4.8 apg (though the
Celtics were 7-9 in March, losing their last 6 games with several
heartbreakers).

I'll talk about the other players on the team and the types of
acquisitions that we could make in another post. 

Alex