Re: trading up/down

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@BATTELLE.ORG>]

You may be right about Przybilla, Josh, but I'm not so sure. I said weeks
ago I thought he had a chance to move up into the top 3 or 4 in workouts,
and it sounds like he's doing just that. He's talented, thinks defense
first, has a knack for blocking shots and a little mean streak. Mihm is a
talented offensive player, but he's nowhere near the defender in the middle
that Przybilla is. The other guys-Swift, Martin or even Miles-will be great
players, and I'd be thrilled to add any of them, but I'm not sure they're
the types of players who will make a big difference with the Celts.

Of course, I may be completely wrong about Przybilla. It won't be the first
time. But we'll see.

When breaking down this draft, it seems there is a certain consensus about
the players certain to be gone before we pick: Martin, Mihm, Swift,
Przybilla, Fizer, Miles, Miller. I'll throw Tsakalidis in there, assuming
his contract problems work out and the Cavs snatch him up. That's eight
spots. That leaves, in my opinion, three players up in the air: Alexander,
DerMar Johnson, and Moiso. Now, Johnson or Alexander certainly may be gone
in the top 8, but it seems that these three are the most likely targets at
No. 11. Houston at No. 9 reportedly loves Moiso, and they need a PF, so that
makes sense. That leaves Orlando choosing from Johnson and Alexander. I'd be
shocked if, given this choice, they didn't go for Johnson. He may be a
little more raw, but he seems to have a higher ceiling and lacks Alexander's
baggage. The more I look at it, the more I think Alexander may be the guy in
that group who slides to us.

Now, if that happens, does Pitino make the deal with the devil? He's a
talent, and maybe the most NBA-ready player in the draft. But he is a
headache and a shoot-first player. Would Pitino do it? I don't know, and
that's where all the other options come in: Ernest Brown is a reach at 11.
Morris Peterson has been awful in his workouts and is dropping out of the
lottery. Etan Thomas is a solid, safe pick with no upside. The other
high-schooler, DeShawn Stevenson, might make sense in this scenario, but the
Celts are said to want a contributor. Quentin Richardson? Maybe, but he
scares me. A 6-4 shooting guard who made his living on the offensive
glass-almost playing PF-is risky. Jamal Crawford could be the compromise
pick. He would be the big point guard Pitino wants. OO? Who knows? I'm not
going to speculate without ever seeing the guy play, but maybe he's an
option.

Maybe if this scenario plays out, Pitino trades out of that spot, either
down in the draft or straight out of it for a veteran.

Anyway, it seems the best thing that could happen to the Celts is to have
Alexander go early and drop one of those other "elite 11" players into their
laps. Or maybe someone else sneaks into the top 10-Stevenson or OO seem to
be the most likely possibilities, or perhaps Q. 

I've also read theories that if Alexander were there for the Celts, they
would take him in order to trade him, and maybe that's where Przybilla (or
Swift/Mihm/Martini) comes in-say the Celts send Alexander and Vitaly to the
Bulls for Przybilla, who they snatched up with the fourth pick. Or to the
Clippers.

I don't know, but it does seem that a few names are becoming more and more
likely to be considered at 11, if we stay there. I will say this (as if I
haven't said enough already)-none of these guys at 11 are going to make a
significant difference next year. If that's the only change we make, we'll
be back in the same spot next June.

Mark