Re: Fortson on block

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

> Alex, you deserve all the credit in the world for calling the original
> trade for Fortson, but if this is accurate then I'm afraid your sanguine
> diagnosis of the Fortson situation is dead wrong. I keep hoping time will
> prove you right again.

If you look at the number of rumors of various players being shopped vs. 
the actual number of trades that occur, you probably figure that these
reporters have a success ratio of 5%. That's a reflection not only of
the number of baseless rumors, but also the amount of discussion that
goes on in the NBA, very little of which leads to something productive.

I don't doubt that the Celtics have explored trade scenarios involving
Fortson. Chris Wallace's job is supposedly to call every team and offer
them trade scenarios. I can also believe that Fortson is available at
the right price, just like almost every Celtic. How I feel about Fortson
being traded depends on what that price is. 

The Orlando scenario is plausible especially since Orlando probably
doesn't really want to have three first round draft picks next
year. They would eat into their cap space and they have enough young
players as well as more draft picks coming in the future. I doubt they
give up the Golden State pick, but they're probably willing to give up
one or both of their own and Denver's pick in the right trade. The
player that they throw in probably doesn't matter long-term but for
immediate impact and fit, Gatling probably makes the most sense as a
low post scorer off the bench.

One of the motivations for trading Fortson primarily for a draft pick
or two would be to keep the budget down. You would avoid pushing the
salary cap up with another exception. You'd also build flexibility 
because draft picks are very tradable. You can keep them and draft
a project center in the low lottery or a backup point guard. Or you
can package them in other moves. On the downside, you can't build for
the future forever. I suppose if we got Gatling and the Magic pick,
that would be a combination of present impact and future return.
You never know where the Magic might end in the lottery either.
Personally, though, I wouldn't be too eager to pull the trigger on 
this trade. It's not like Fortson has had much of a chance to prove
his value yet, and it's also not true that Pitino hasn't tried playing
Fortson at PF.

On a side note, that report about the Celtics trying to "give" Antoine
away is just ludicrous. I'm sure that anonymous GMs amuse themselves
by throwing ridiculous lines like that at gullible sportswriters.

Alex