Fortson trade

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

Along with everyone else, I am disappointed with what we got for Fortson
although I was resigned to seeing him go, even after predicting that he
would catapult our team into the playoffs. I don't think that it was a
case of Pitino and Wallace not getting all that they could in trade for
him, but really just a reflection of the value of the upcoming free
agents from the draft class of '97, especially the guys who have good 
but not exceptional talent. I wrote a while back about how the
new collective bargaining agreement really reduced the value of these
guys, because rookies from newer classes had a rookie contract that was
much more favorable for management. You don't have to extend them after 
the second year before they have shown anything, and they can't threaten
to leave because you have right of first refusal. So the guys from '97
are probably the most expensive guys in the league relative to their
talent and experience (not including deserving max players like Duncan
and arguably Van Horn) if you give them anything near what they want. 
Imagine if Mercer or Fortson, for instance, was under the new contract.
Right now there would be another season and a half before he could even
entertain other offers, and we'd be able to match them instead of
overpaying because he threatened to leave. 

I think that the Mercer and Billups (people forget Billups was involved
but Denver gave up a guy they traded a #5 pick for) trade for Abdul Wahad
and Gatling shows this. Abdul Wahad has some ability but again he is a
free agent from that class and will end up being overpaid if Denver wants
to keep him. Gatling also has talent but he's also got little value
around the league. The draft pick that they got is likely to be
significantly worse than the one we got from Denver, because it has
lottery protection and some conditions under which Denver has to send
back another first rounder. I think we'll see other moderately talented
guys from this class like McGrady or Taylor get traded for relatively
little, lost for nothing, or overpaid. Basically the Mercer-Fortson trade
comes out decent if we get a good player with the pick and otherwise is
pretty bad. Of course I am assuming that Alvin Williams doesn't suddenly 
ecome a decent point guard. I'm not holding my breath there.

I think that it's possible that there were other offers that look better
on paper but involve more class of '97 free agents looking for big
paydays. I think that in this case Pitino was really looking to trade
in a way that wasn't going to increase the payroll this offseason.
Anyway, the whole situation with these '97 free agents sucks. 
But no question, Pitino made a mistake with his evaluation of Fortson
and how he'd fit in with this team, and with the league's new rules.

Alex