Trade offer for Bibby

[Alexander Wang <awang@MIT.EDU>]

I was glad to read that the Celtics made a real play for Bibby, offering
two first-rounders and Eric Williams. The main question is, which two
first-rounders? The value of the two potential lottery picks (our own and
Denver's) may become better over time for a few reasons. First, there's
reduced uncertainty: teams will know what draft position they're trading
into, and even which player they can select if it's on draft day. Second,
teams will be more focused on the draft and presumably more excited about
the players in it. On the other hand, the reduced uncertainty may clarify
for them that they don't want to make the trade, and the approach of the
draft may reveal that it is overrated. So it can go both ways, but
generally there's probably a tendency for the value to increase.

But there's also a value to accelerating the rebuilding schedule. That's
the reason why there's so much complaining on this list, because we want a
team that improves and wins now. That's why it can be the right thing to
trade future talent, like draft picks, for present talent. Having a winning
team has side benefits too. Better free agents are more likely to sign with
a winning team. Your own free agents are more willing to re-sign. The fan
base is more solid which means more revenue and hopefully a higher payroll
limit from the owner.

Now if we believe that what we get in the draft is going to help us right
away in the way that Bibby would, and to a greater extent, it's not worth
it to gain a half season. On the other hand, if we're going to be drafting
projects that are going to require two years of NBA seasoning to play at a
high level, then you have to think carefully. If these guys are going to be
overwhelming talents, especially at the center position, then you don't
make any trades. These are the types of guys you tank seasons for. But
we're not looking at a team that is built to tank; our pick and Denver's
pick are likely not going to be that high. What can we get at the 10th
spot? Well, the list of talent supposedly looks quite impressive. Are 10 or
more teams going to get sure-thing impact players? 

What I like about Bibby is that he's basically a sure thing for the next 10
years, at a position where we need help. He's been very consistent for
about two full seasons and is only 22 years old. Maybe he's not a fiery
leader but we have Antoine and Paul already. I don't know whether he's
worth two lottery picks; it depends on where in the lottery they are, and
how good the draft ends up being. I guess depends partially on if all these
high school centers declare. The way some of us value these picks, it's
surprising how little credit Pitino gets for acquiring one in the Mercer
trade.

Alex