Playoff prospects

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

The Eastern Conference rosters aren't in a final state yet, but the
question of the Celtics' playoff chances has come up. I don't believe any
statement to the effect of "there is a 0% chance of the Celtics making the
playoffs." There are too many uncertainties in the NBA season to make that
sort of conclusion. Injuries to key players, for one thing, can completely
change a team's chance.

Let's look at the teams below us last season, starting with the worst
records. Chicago has added talent through the draft and will probably get
more from free agency. Still, they are going to be a young team and
probably quite bad. Atlanta was wretched last year and added DerMarr
Johnson through the draft. Mutombo is probably not going to improve at this
point in his career. They'll probably be better but not by that much.
Washington is in a tough situation with its expensive underachievers
getting older. I don't see many chances for them. New Jersey added the #1
pick to the draft and maybe the next Doc Rivers as a coach. They've lost
Kittles though. They'll probably be in the mix for the last few playoff
spots. Cleveland added Mihm but looks like they're going to be losing Kemp
for a bunch of spare parts. I think they'll get worse before they get better.

Let's look at the teams above us, again starting with the worst records.
Orlando is clearly a completely different team than they were last year
with Grant Hill and McGrady. They also added Mike Miller while losing
Wallace, Atkins, and Mercer. They're a playoff team in my mind. Milwaukee
retained Tim Thomas and shuffled their roster a bit with trades, as well as
adding Pryzbilla in the draft. They're still probably in the playoffs. 

Detroit lost Grant Hill, one of the top players in the game. With him, they
were 42-40. In return they got Wallace and Atkins, who are nice role
players. They may change their team further in trades with Dallas but it
looks like they aren't going to be able to come close to replacing Hill. I
don't see them making the playoffs.

Toronto lost McGrady, who was their second leading scorer and did a bit of
everything else for them. They added Mark Jackson to their ancient support
cast of Oakley and Willis. The question for them is how much better will
Carter get? He could conceivably carry them to the playoffs taking on a
huge scoring load. Still, it'll be a tougher road for them this year.

Philadelphia's main problem seems to be the relationship between Iverson
and Larry Brown. Unless Iverson goes down with injury, I see them as a lock
for the playoffs.

Charlotte lost Eddie Jones and Mason and got back PJ Brown and Jamal
Mashburn. Brown is a better citizen than Mason, which Charlotte needs, but
I don't know that he gives more on the court. Mashburn had a career year;
can he maintain his performance? They're still likely to be a playoff team.

The top three teams - Miami, Indiana, New York - are still playoff teams.
Miami improving itself has no real relevance to the Celtics' playoff
chances. They were going to make the playoffs anyway. 

So in my view, there are seven tough teams: Miami, Indiana, New York,
Philadelphia, Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee. The competitors for the eighth
spot will include Toronto, New Jersey -- and the Celtics.

There are a few reasons why I'm optimistic that the Celtics will contend
for a playoff spot this year. First, I believe that players in the NBA
generally don't peak until they are around 28. Most of the Celtics' key
players are still young and not at the peak of their careers. Pierce just
finished his first full NBA season. I know that some people are
disappointed he didn't make the quantum leap that Vince Carter did but
there's still room for improvement there. 

Antoine's offseason comments were definitely disappointing and it looks
like he's not going to be making a big leap by developing some additional
athleticism. But nonetheless my guess is he'll continue to slowly improve
as he gets more experienced. Last year, as disappointing as he was, he
picked up his free throw shooting, 2 pt FG shooting, and assist numbers.
I've noticed also that Antoine seems to get energized by the press, by
creating turnovers and getting easy baskets. Maybe the return to the press
will force him to get into good shape. He did manage to play 40 minutes per
game of Pitinoball in 97-98, his best season. 

Other core guys - Battie, Potapenko, Griffin - as well as much of the
bench, are also young and developing. We lost Fortson but honestly, I don't
think he made any difference in the win column. They were 11-14 before he
came back and 24-33 after. You can blame that on misuse by the coach if you
want - playing him at center - but I think you'd still agree that he didn't
really help the Celtics win games. Switching Barros for Brown and Pack is
bound to be an improvement given the way Barros played last year. Blount
can't make any less impact in the win column than Pervis.

I'm not sure what kind of impact Moiso will have. I've seen him for maybe
20 minutes against summer league competition, when he looked like he had a
knack for shotblocking and athleticism to spare. Pitino and Wallace are
downplaying the impact he might have, but I think that's pretty usual for
rookies. I remember that Pitino, at the beginning of the first season, was
downplaying expectations for Mercer. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic that the Celtics will compete for a playoff
spot, and be the best Celtics team so far in the Pitino era. Of course,
tomorrow Walker and Anderson will probably get traded for Jermaine O'Neal
and Stoudamire and this will all be moot. I'm looking forward to the season
though, and watching my team play. 

Alex