Re: Peter May On Fortson & Blount

[Joe Hironaka <j.hironaka@unesco.org>]

OzerskyJA wrote:

> What makes the press work is that tired players make bad decisions under
> pressure,
> and I don't see how you can coach that factor out of the picture.  All it
> needs to do is cause a few key turnovers per game and it's done its job.
> The frenetic athleticism of the executing team is what makes it work, not
> the Xs and Os.

    I dunno Josh, I think the press and the traps clearly work better and better
the deeper you go down the basketball food chain. The top division-one college
teams tend to go only 6 or 7 deep on the bench in terms of pro caliber players
(including CBA, overseas etc.) Hence starters get tired from the minutes or
coaches have to go deeper to the bench than they want to. Plus there is also the
player experience factor.

    Pitino coached the best defensive teams in college even with some less
athletic guys on his side...Now he has arguably the worst or second worst
defensive team in the league.  NBA scrubs are for the most part much more
athletic, bigger and, above all, more experienced compared to division one
college starters.

    That is ultimately what ups the ante, IMO. The defense has to be that much
more athletitic.

    In the end, I think the Pitino system will require players who are a lot
more athletic than the average NBA opponent in order to cover the deficiencies
and openings the system allows in comparison to variations of the honest
man-to-man. That's a tall order.  The Celtics have some guys that would be
considered good defenders in other systems, but really only one guy that fits
the ideal super-versatile Pitino defender description that can make the system
work (McCarty can switch defensive assignments easily). Unfortunately, our only
headless chicken outbreak stud hurts the team in other ways.

    Whenever a team beats the Pitino system you end up with a layup or an open
jumper or a free trip to the line off a late recovery and foul by the defender.
High percentages for opponents...uphill battle for our offense. People talk
about seeing Dana Barros alone under the basket guarding a center. I've actually
seen it as a direct result of the halfcourt switches (and Dana's not even
fronting the center or near a help defender, it is that pathetic). It is almost
like a setup.

    I happen to like the fullcourt press. It is the traps that kill me. It is
seeing Boston defenders sprinting 10 feet to try to defend a wide open
3-pointer. Always a step too late.

    Some NBA teams have grasped the Pitino system a lot better than others
(Detroit and Milwaukee come to mind), but on the whole it is hard to keep
avoiding the conclusion that more and more teams are getting more and more
comfortable beating the Pitino system like a drum (.470FG% allowed).

    David Darlington made a great point about the 82 game NBA schedule and our
annual February/March swoon. Is Pitino wearing out his own guys instead of our
opponents? Why are we such easy prey on the second of back-to-back games? There
is kind of a pattern developing here.

    When you coach the second worst defense in the league, guess what you are
not going to get you into the playoffs no matter who you have on offense. To
make the playoffs next year, I think the Mendoza line will be .450FG%. If the
Celtics can hold teams to that percentage, they can be successful.

    Now .450 is hardly asking for too much. How many of the Celtics "goto"
scorers in the past five years have shot over .450FG%? That number factors in
all the turnovers caused by the traps supposedly leading to fewer opponent shot
attempts.

    But the Celtics have a long way to go before they can get down to .450%. For
one thing, trading or renouncing a benchwarmer who missed over half the season
(Fortson) is not going to magically solve this problem no matter how much we buy
into the spin that Pitino's total failure to coach good NBA defense in Boston is
the result of his players (a roster the coach himself hand picked, of course).

    How unathletic would Danny Fortson look on the gimpy, slow down, pound the
glass Knicks style of play? How unathletic would Potapenko be in Indiana if he
took over Rik Smits' entire role? I'd argue that both guys could have actually
improved those two teams' performance last year, and we're talking here about
the two finalists from our conference. Potapenko and Fortson are easily the
toughest guys on our roster.

    At some point you have to point the finger at the coach. The Knicks and
Pacers were just better coached. I want Pitino to succeed in the end, but at the
same time I've had enough of the easy excuses. That's why I have no problem at
all seeing Fortson leave. Potapenko too. Pitino's already used up the "fan
negativity" excuse. What's next? It's time to put up or shut up basically.

Joe

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