Stat analysis for starters

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

We're halfway through the first month of the season so the Celtics
have played enough games that we're getting a feeling for the
strengths and weaknesses of the team. Of course, when Fortson returns
the makeup of the team could change quite a bit.

Walker: 20.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.1 apg. Encouragingly, his offensive
rebounding stats have improved over the past few games, although he
only grabbed two defensive rebounds against Chicago. He is playing
smarter offensively than in past years. His 2pt FG is 47.7%, 3pt FG is
40.0%. He looks like he's been having mental problems with free throws
again, which hopefully he'll just keep working on. His great free
throw shooting in the preseason and early season wasn't a fluke.
   Actually I was thinking that Antoine's relatively low defensive
rebounding stats may actually be due to a coaching decision. I believe
that he is releasing when the opponent shoots. The reason is because
Pierce and Griffin are superior rebounders for their positions. So
either Antoine's man has to forsake the offensive board to get back
and cover him (leaving Pierce and Griffin to dominate their men on the
boards), or Antoine gets a mismatch or easy basket if the Celtics get
the rebound and push the ball up quickly.

Pierce: 19.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.7 apg. These are very impressive stats
for a shooting guard, and yet it doesn't seem like he's playing at his
peak yet. His 2pt FG is 53.1%, 3pt FG is 37.9%. It looks like on
defense, it doesn't matter whether he can theoretically cover
two-guards or not, because Griffin is going to defend the tougher
opposing player whether he is the 2 or 3.
   Pierce is not shooting as well on 3's overall this year but seems
to be one of the prime beneficiaries when Griffin drives from the
left side of the court. Pierce will go towards the corner on the 
right side and get an open 3-pointer. I don't know for sure but it
seems like he's hit a high percentage of these. I think that Pierce
has been the go-to guy for desperation three-pointers at the end
of the game so his percentage may be taking a hit from that.

Anderson: 15.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.7 apg. Other than the Pistons game 
where he went down early with injury and the opening Raptors game
when he wasn't needed, he's provided big time scoring when the team
has needed it, with over 17 points each game. He's actually averaging
18.0 ppg and 5.3 apg when you disregard the game against the Pistons,
and his value in running the offense isn't even reflected in his
assist stats. His defense and hustle is much better than anyone
expected. 
   So far, Kenny has been phenomenal at getting to the free throw
line with a 2:1 ratio of FG:FT. He's done it when the team has needed
it too, when the opposing team defense tightens up needing a stop.

Griffin: 9.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.9 apg, 2.6 spg. Leading the team in
rebounds, assists, steals, minutes, and vital defensive stops. I'm
really not sure what Pitino is going to do when Fortson returns
because how can you move Griffin to the bench if he keeps playing like
this? I would think you still want him to start to keep the opposing
team's best swingman from getting off to a good start. Anyways, there
are worse dilemmas than having too many starter quality players.
   I like how Griffin creates easy baskets for Walker in particular,
because I think that keeps Walker involved in the offense and less
likely to start going one-on-one to get himself involved. Regardless
of whether Griffin or Fortson starts though, they're probably going
to get big minutes.

Potapenko: 7.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.9 apg. He's stepped up his rebounding
this year and his defense against big strong types is still good, and
that is mainly what the team needs from him. Still, his offense hasn't
been there except for the 20 point outburst against the Wizards. He's
committed 18 turnovers in 7 games - I don't know how many of these 
come from illegal screen calls but they seem to nail him for it quite
a bit. He's only been limited by foul trouble in two games so far,
which is the reason we've seen very little of Pervis. I think that
Pervis is a foul trouble substitute for Potapenko and not Battie,
in the same way that Overton is a foul trouble substitute for
Anderson. Pitino just doesn't want to play Pervis or Overton with
the second unit, it seems. 
   We talk a lot about Ron Mercer but how about the other important
guy we've given up in trade, Andrew DeClercq? This year he's averaging
11.2 ppg and 7.0 rpg on 54.5% FG. I'm glad to see him succeed because
he always seemed like the type of player who deserved it through his
effort. I still think that this team needs what Potapenko brings to it
though, in terms of sheer physical presence. Centers like Vitaly take
time to develop too, and I think he is still working on his game.

Alex