Final preseason notes

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

1. I predict 47 wins and the second round of the playoffs. I was thinking
52 wins before Fortson went down with injury. When he is healthy, he 
transforms this team, because right now rebounding is the primary problem
with the team. 

2. The game at Toronto tonight is a tough one. The Celtics don't match
up well with their brutes (Davis, Willis, Oakley) inside with Fortson out.
They must try to compensate by pressing a great deal, since Toronto doesn't
have a premier point guard. I've read that they are considering starting
McGrady at point, which would certainly create some strange matchups. 
   I would guess that Griffin is in the lineup because he is the second
best defensive swingman on the team, behind Pierce. Cheaney is too foul
prone right now. So Pierce guards Carter and Griffin guards Doug Christie.
Pierce vs. Carter is probably going to be one of the great rivalries of
the next decade.

3. I don't see how the Eastern Conference is better than it was two years
ago either, especially after the conference sent a lot of talent West over
the last couple of years. There were five solid 50+ win teams including a 
strong Charlotte team that was probably as good as the one they have right 
now; the Jordan led Chicago team; a younger and tougher Indiana and Miami 
teams.  The one truly bad team that was an almost automatic win back then was 
Toronto (16-66). The Eastern Conference was actually stronger than the 
Western Conference from top to bottom. For example, Philadelphia was 16-38 
vs the conference that year but 15-13 vs the West. You have similar results 
for the other Eastern teams.
   This year, the East is widely considered to be much weaker than the West.
You have two potentially awful teams in Orlando and Chicago. There are a 
lot of potential playoff teams but no more than in 97-98, when 13 teams
finished with 36 wins or more. 

4. The reason that Pitino has succeeded wherever he goes is because he has
motivated his athletes to be in great physical shape, had superior depth,
and practiced and prepared more than any others. He had none of these
advantages during the lockout-shortened season. He has all of these this
season. That is why I expect Pitino's standard "year 2 improvement" to 
occur for the Celtics this year. He has the depth (when Fortson returns),
the training camp, the training facility, the practice time between games,
and he's put together a group of players that he's pretty happy with. The
Celtics are going to get better as the year goes on and they are going to
keep getting better year after year. 

5. If the Celtics don't do well as the trading deadline approaches, Pitino
will certainly add to the team. He has, up to this point, not really traded
the future for the sake of short-term gains unlike Philly or Toronto, say,
because he has had the long-term security of a huge contract. But since he's
stockpiled some future goods (the Denver lottery pick) and there is some
pressure on him to win now, we could see a trade of that sort. There will
probably be some team that is out of the playoffs that will be willing to
give up a contributor for draft picks and expiring contracts. I would
expect some minor trade regardless of how the Celtics are doing. 

6. My pick for the eventual replacement for Pervis Ellison, either during
the trading deadline or more likely during the offseason, is Chris Anstey. 
The Celtics were interested in him when he was drafted because he is a big 
man who can run and play in a high post offense. He's young and he's 
underachieved so he seems like someone that Pitino might want to work on.
I would guess that if the Celtics offer their $2M exception, Chicago 
wouldn't be inclined to match it since they are going to be going after
bigger fish. The idea of offering the $2M to a third-rate center may seem
wasteful but that is probably what the market for centers is like. We saw
some pretty third-rate centers signing for $2M this offseason. I scanned 
the list of NBA player contracts and I don't see many free agent centers 
with expiring contracts that won't be retained by their current team.

Alex