Re: Predictions

[opi@unesco.org]

To the beat of Hawaiian music, I was going to predict a big "Five-Oh" in
wins following the Fortson trade. But in honor of contrarians like Paul
M and Mike King, I'll go with a more reasonable 46 wins.

I think the 1999 half of the schedule will be more brutal and
disappointing than we anticipate (could be as bad as 11-17), and you
can't underestimate the negative impact of the fact that the Celtics are
the only team in the conference that doesn't have a home court advantage
whenever they play at the Fleet Center. A .500 record going into
December would be ideal, especially if we are at full rebounding
strength in time for the big Texas/West Coast swing. Based on the
schedule, I'm anticipating 35 wins in the new year regardless of how the
first half goes, and a lot more fans on the bandwagon by this Spring
(which will help at home).

If I didn't know a thing about past performances, I'd suggest that the
Celtics are better on paper than Miami, most noticeably in players 3
through 10. For example, I wouldn't be that quick to trade Fortson for
PJ Brown -- given their age and rebounding ability -- and there is a
massive dropoff in talent after PJ on that Heat club.

This will sound like Pitino-bashing, but I think Pat Riley could coach
either team to an identical record this year on a dare. I'd also say
that Chuck Daly might prefer to coach this year's Celtics than last
year's Orlando club of reclamation projects and Money-Penny. Larry
Bird's brittle Indiana Pacemakers club is finally an inferior-looking
team player-for-player than the Celtics, and will continue to
deteriorate on individual defense barring spectacular development by the
teens Bender and Harrington.

As someone else said, the Eastern competition this year is going to come
from the younger mid-tier clubs, one or two of whom will likely separate
themselves permanently from the pack and each of whom seem to have
player talent (clubs like Milwaukee and Detroit pretty much own us). But
nearly all those teams have either a major headcase player or a major
injury to contend with.

So anyway, I'd say 46 wins. I'd rather the Celtics win an 8th seed than
get a top lottery pick. Losing year after year is a reinforcing habit
that's obviously hard for young stars to ever break, and the Celts are
definitely falling into this Clipper-like trend in the worst and most
obvious ways.

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