VP factor (was Re: Paper Clips)

[Kestutis.Kveraga@Dartmouth.EDU]

peter delevett wrote:

> a) What a shooting performance by Kenny! I hope this is a sign of things to
> come. Only 3 assists though ...

In terms of shooting %, yes. In terms of # of assists, I hope not.


> c) How about the Ukraine Train?? 11 boards and a block? In New Orleans,
>that's
> what they call lagniappe (a little, unexpected something extra). Overall we
> out-rebounded the Clips by 19.

Yes, but the Clips are #29 in rebounding (looking at the real indicator of
rebounding prowess - the reb. differential, not the somewhat misleading # of
rebounds/game by a team).

That said, I've been intrigued by all this talk of Vitaly's "invisible" (in
terms of individual stats) contribution to the team's rebounding. So I ran
some analyses, looking at how the  "VP factor" influences the Celtics' game
rebounding differential (i.e., Celts' reb. vs. opp. reb.). At first
approximation, the raw numbers suggest a difference: without VP, we get
outrebounded by 4.5 rebounds (i.e., the game reb. diff. (GRD) is -4.53),
with Vitaly, we outrebound the opponent by 8.3 (GRD of +8.33).

However, the raw numbers can be misleading, given that we played the weakest
and a middling (Indiana was #15 as of 3/15) rebounding teams in the
three games with VP in the lineup. Still, when I accounted for the opponent's
rebounding prowess, whether the game was at home or on the road, a win or a
loss,  the VP factor was still statistically significant. The adjusted
means were:
w/o VP, GRD of -4.07, w/VP, GRD of +7.88. That's a 12 reb. swing, folks!

(Note to the statistically wise: I know that the sample sizes are horribly
unequal, that other stat. assumptions have been violated, that the analysis
did not take into account a zillion of other possible factors, but I did this
on my own unpaid precious time, and nba.com doesn't make it easy to get the
raw numbers. So take it cum grano salis and don't flame me for the
shortcommings
- I'm well aware of them).

> d) If Eric Riley can't get off the bench during a 34 point blowout, I'm kind
> of wondering why Pitino's keeping him around.

He made a nice (albeit garbage-time) contribution in his 5 minutes. He has
some talent, and is 7 feet tall. If he ever reshapes that, to paraphrase a
list
member, "newborn-baby musculature", he may turn out to be a very nice player.
And he doesn't cost much to keep around.