Re: Ron Mercer -Reply

[Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>]

Jim,

You make very good points here. I've assumed in the calculations that
every two free throws resulted from a missed shot attempt when players
are fouled. As you mention, this doesn't take into account three-point
plays ("and one"); it also doesn't take into account non-shooting fouls
when the fouling team is in a penalty situation. It's certainly not as 
good as watching video and tabulating the results, but it's much better 
than the typical measure of FG%.

And when you're comparing Walker and Mercer, I think Walker is the
one penalized from omitting three point plays. Mercer probably gets
more non-shooting fouls in late game situations because he is a much
better free throw shooter.

Alex

> >From: Alex Wang <awang@mit.edu>
> 
> >For instance, say a guy is a great inside scorer and is wonderful at 
> >getting inside position; as a result, opponents foul rather than give him a 
> >dunk. His line may be something like 2-6 FG, 12-12 FT. If they give him the 
> >dunk instead, his line is 8-12 FG, 0-0 FT. In each case he gets 16 points 
> >on 12 possessions, which is an efficient performance. But his FG% is 33% in 
> >the first case and 67% in the second.
> 
> How do you measure possessions in a case like this?  Since missed shots 
> aren't counted as attempts when the player is fouled, aren't those 
> possessions missing from the stats sheet?  And, to complicate matters, you 
> can't tell from the free throw attempts either, because some of those will 
> be one shot after a made basket.  To be meaningful, I think this stat would 
> have to count shot attempts, including those he's fouled on, which you do in 
> the example.  I just don't see how you can get that stat in real life.  
> Working from the line score you gave as an example, your player might have 
> had 11 or even 10 possessions, not 12,which would affect his efficiency 
> significantly.
> 
> Jim
> 
> 
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