Re: three way for Baker?

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

DJessen,

Thanks for the comments. They are right on target. I think you are correct
in your assessment that the Bulls are getting off pretty easy in the
supposed (alleged?) three-way but I think that reflects the fact that
Chicago is in the cat-bird seat. 

Krause is under absolutely no pressure to deal; Pitino is under a great
deal of pressure to improve substantially NOW and even Wally Walker has
been feeling the heat from both the fans and particularly Payton to put
together a potential contender. Chicago can be patient, Boston and Seattle
are running out of patience and their principles (Wally W and Pitino) are
in dangerous waters if they don't deliver soon. Consequently, I anticipate
that *IF* such a deal goes down Chicago will appear to get the most for
least, Seattle will seem to come in second and Boston will end up being
judged to have given up the most - at least in terms of potential. However,
as a friend of mine likes to say, you can't eat potential (i.e., potential
doesn't help you in the here and now).

Let me clarify the deal as I understand it - we can call it "3-way": 
Chicago receives A. Walker and P. Ellison; 
Seattle receives T. Kukoc, R. Mercer, and D. Barros; 
Boston receives V. Baker and R. Artest (and a $2.5 mil salary slot - more
below). 

The participation of the Bulls in any deal is strictly as a facilitator for
the other two parties and hence I wouldn't expect them to go out of their
way (i.e., deal Brand) to insure that the deal goes down. I would hazard to
guess that the Bulls will put their cap space at the disposal of the
parties only as long as they get a "transaction fee" - in other words, a
damn good deal. Kukoc is not exactly chump change. Although Toni may be of
limited use to us, he is a skilled veteran who would be a valuable addition
to a team trying to get over the hump; 'Toine on the other hand seems to be
at least a few years away from fully understanding how best to blend his
skills in order to provide the immediate shot in the arm that a team hoping
to contend needs. The mere fact that Seattle would consider a deal
involving Kukoc but not one including Walker should give us some insight
into how some other teams rate their respective merits (and contracts). 

In addition, Chicago is apparently willing to accept Ellison's contract,
which should not hurt them since this is the last year of the contract.
Such a move *would* help give the Cs a leg-up in their search for a free
agent *this year*. Unless I'm mistaken the Cs could then use Ellison's
contract slot (which is roughly $2.5 mil) as the basis for signing a free
agent - a small advantage but still an extra 500,000 reasons to sign with
Boston rather than some other team for the $2 mil exception. Hence FA
negotiations may be a key to the whole deal going down. I can just hear
Pitino/Wallace spinning now: "We *really* got Baker, Artest AND
[fill-in-the-blank-free-agent] out of this deal". So Boston could actually
end up acquiring TWO starters by 'renting' Chicago's cap space.

With regards to Seattle, I agree that they've got to get more than Kukoc
and Barros; that's why I've speculated that they may also end up with
Mercer - although come to think of it Battie might be the one they prefer
(let's call that option "3-way-a"). That would certainly explain May's
comments regarding Battie's trade value. If Battie gets packaged to Seattle
that would still leave the principles (and the perceived needs) available
for the rumored Mercer to Denver for Fortson swap. 

Now if the deal is really Mercer and Ellison to Chicago (lets call this
option "3-way-b") then presumably Seattle would receive Kukoc, Battie, and
Barros but Boston would NOT get to use Ellison's slot since it would no
longer be above and beyond the salaries we receive back in the deal BUT we
would keep 'Toine (and presumably shift Pierce to SG). 

FWIW I'd rather retain Battie and sign a FA [3-way] than either deal 'Toine
and acquire Fortson [3-way-a] - from our perspective essentially a swap of
Battie for Fortson - or keep 'Toine [3-way-b].

So things may be even more complicated than we currently imagine - no
wonder Rick's like a little kid in a candy store with big eyes...

ciao for now - Tom Murphy
----------
> From: DJessen33@aol.com
> To: tfmiii@worldnet.att.net
> Cc: celtics@igtc.com
> Subject: Re: three way for Baker?
> Date: Saturday, July 24, 1999 11:45 AM
> 
> Tom,
> 
> Good overall analysis except in your senario, the Bulls give up just a 16

> pick, Artest and Kukoc and get Walker. That seems like not enough to me.
In a 
> straight up trade if you were the Sonics or the Celts, would you trade
Walker 
> for just Artest and Kukoc or Baker for just Artest and Kukoc. Not enough 
> coming back, IMO. However, they are one the few teams that has cap room. 
> Also, I don't think I would be happy with just Kukoc and Barros for Baker

> from a Seattle point of view...
> 
> DJessen