My two cents

["Thomas Murphy" <tfmiii@worldnet.att.net>]

Wow!

What a week to be away on vacation. I've finally finished wading through
the thirty or so digests that were waiting for me here at home and I wanted
to share these thoughts.

Mercer for Fortson: 

A good move for both teams. Denver needed someone to help out McDyess with
the scoring load (the poor guy wore himself to a nub last year) and they
certainly get that in Mercer. Neither Fortson or Williams was going to give
them that. Obviously, Boston needed help up front and Fortson should
provide that. (Joe, love the comments about the 550 LB frontline ready to
open multiple CWA! You kill me, man!!) 

I see Eric Williams and Popeye as exchanges of ACL victims who were
rendered redundant by the swap of the principles (Mercer, Fortson).
Swapping Williams and his (former) ability to score to the Cs and Popeye
and his (former) ability to rebound to Denver could conceivably aid each
team - if either ever regains something resembling pre-injury form. As it
was, neither was going to contribute to their former teams but they may be
of some value off the bench for their new teams.

Obviously Eric Washington and Schintzius are mere cap fodder. The number
one draft pick is meant to balance out both the perceived talent
differential between Mercer and Fortson and the contract differential
between Popeye and Williams.

As I've noted in the past, I think any trade that enables/convinces Pitino
to play Antoine at the three is likely to be a good trade for us. I'm just
surprised at how good a trade this *could* be for us. Pitino deserves
credit there. If Fortson merely continues where he left off there's no
doubt in my mind that this is a boffo trade for us. Also, Williams (unlike
Popeye) will now be two years removed from knee surgery - if he can regain
his former aggressiveness playing amid the surroundings of his former
success he could provide a pleasant surprise off the bench racking up the
points against other teams' scrubs. On the other hand, I'm sure Denver will
benefit as well. I think Mercer will surprise some on the list by how well
he fits at the three for the Nuggets. Remember all the double-doubles Kobe
racked up playing the three early last year? How many did he have after
being switched back to the two spot? (not that Mercer is Kobe, but you get
the point. . . ).

The Antoine to Indiana rumors: 

I think Alex pretty much has this situation pegged (thanks again for the
always informative analysis) - this was a live option as long as Mercer
alone was not bringing in a proper return. I'll bet once the Mercer trade
went through this option hit the skids. In other words, the rumors surfaced
once the deal was old news - like so many things the press reports (I'd
never heard about the Dee Brown - Pitino shouting match before or the
reported fact that both Chauncey and Mercer were thinking "we gotta get
outta here" in training camp). That said, I'm convinced that Pitino *was*
exploring options that would ship both Mercer and Antoine out but only if
he both fill his gap at the four AND receive a legit scoring threat back.
Apparently the Cs felt that Vin Baker would count for both of these, hence
the scenario that Alex proposed concerning a potential three way with
Indiana and Seattle would make some sense - but only until Denver came
through. With Mercer gone and the Fortson ready to man the four there is no
logic to trading Antoine since he now provides one of the two scorers
(among his many other skills) needed for team balance and chemistry. (FWIW
I think Antoine's perimeter game is one of his strengths - it enables him
to become more of a distributor rather than an on-the-blocks black hole,
plus his shooting % on the perimeter compares much more favorably to the
rest of the league than his % in the post where taller stronger players can
much more easily negate him. Now his shot selection is another story. . .
but I think that it tends to be just as good (poor?) wherever he happens to
be on the court).

Calbert Cheaney signing:

I was initially disappointed and puzzled by this news (for reasons why, see
the sportsguy post on the subject at
http://home.digitalcity.com/boston/sportsguy/main.dci?page=sg080599). I,
like many others, thought another big guy might be the proper move. But on
review of the situation it looks as if Pitino is more willing to risk
having to play Fortson at center for some minutes (I guess he feels in case
of injury another Eric Riley-type will always be available) than being
caught with a team without *anyone* who has NBA experience defending SG.
Cheaney at least provides this. The Celts also play a brand of Bball that
plays to Cheaney's strengths - his athleticism and willingness to work
defensively. In the big picture Cheaney's contract is a rather small risk
that - given Pitino's ability to rejuvenate careers - could pay off well.
That's how it probably should be viewed, as a calculated gamble on a vet
player who we know can at least step in defensively at SG and who has the
physical skills that should enable him to flourish in an up-tempo
second-team trapping unit. In other words, Cheaney's deal represents a
reasonable risk that presents no great difficulties if it doesn't pan out -
plus we keep him away from Riley!!

More deals?:

I wouldn't expect any more deals at this point - they've already added six
new contracts to the mix! Right now the Cs looked primed  - and stocked -
for a make-or-break season.

Keys for this year:

Many have already identified Walker as a key for the coming season. This is
undoubtedly true. Injuries are also another obvious key. Some have noted
that Kenny Anderson (who at times seems to have been forgotten amid all the
roster-shaking news) will be crucial variable who could elevate the Cs to
the next level, but Pitino seems to have made sure to retain plenty of
insurance (Barros, Turner) in case Anderson's not up to the challenge. For
my money the true "key" to the next season is Pitino - not the
Pitino-the-GM (where I think he deserves credit for improved performance
over the last year) but Pitino-the-coach. I have no doubts concerning his
ability to intellectually analyze the game of Bball, my doubts stem from
his abilities to manage a basketball TEAM - that is, to properly manage and
motivate a group of players and personalities through the rigors of one of
the most pressure-packed sports leagues today. I agree with Dorine that,
from what I can gather, Pitino does not seem like a boss for whom I'd want
to work - or even a particularly likeable person for that matter. Too often
it seems that his ego is as large (if not larger) and problematic as than
the egos of the players he has been hired to manage. The key to Antoine and
Kenny and the rest of the team is how Pitino fairs in motivating and
managing them in a fair manner. That's the primary reason Phil Jackson gets
the big bucks (I'm convinced that the key to his triangle offense is not
its relative effectiveness in terms of X's and O's but in how it requires
players to think of themselves in reference to their teammates). Pitino's
"no more babying" comments may be a step in this direction but over the
long haul simply singling out Antoine as a whipping boy (like the
Fleet-fools) won't get it done either. Hopefully Pitino now has the
components together to both run the kind of strategies he favors AND allow
the players a degree of autonomy that is commensurate with the level of
respect any valued employee should expect and that likewise encourages them
to police themselves (with the appropriate help from him - i.e. playing
time, of course). I believe that this represents the greatest challenge
that Pitino will face this season: learning how to successfully manage a
group of tough-minded men rather than simply programming a squad of
intimidated boys.

Given all that, I'm cautiously optimistic and expect our beloved Celts to
crack .500 for the first time in a while. My prediction: 43-39 and clawing
for the last playoff spot along with Cleveland, Toronto and possibly New
Jersey.

Best wishes - Tom Murphy