re:What if?

[j.hironaka@unesco.org]

If a team like San Antonio got Tim Duncan, then it is not that
outrageous a notion that the Celtics will win a top three pick this
year. Maybe the lepprechaun isn't finished smiling on us.

Were that the case (I know it is very, very, very unlikely), then what
would you folks do?

If we wanted to groom a pointguard for our next championship run, then I
would be in favor of trading backwards to a top 6 pick or so and hope
for an unselfish, pure point like Andre Miller.  Because if he isn't
there, then the very worst you'd do is walk away with a major
scorer/athlete like Jason Terry, Will Avery, or Baron Davis. All these
guys could turn out to be just as good as Stevie Francis IMO, plus we'd
get something additional in return. As you all know, Steve Francis has
been described as a taller Iverson without the rap sheet and attitude.
But if you watch Terrapins basketball only sporadically, then it is very
easy to come away thinking "what's the big deal with this guy?" (as
someone else on this list said). There have been games where he is
invisible, and others where he plays awful (like his final collegiate
game). He doesn't really handle the ball that much, Juan Dixon shoots
from distance far better, and Terence Morris and Laron Profit typically
take all the big shots and look like the more aggressive and gifted
athletes on the team. I really must be missing something. I know I am,
having read so much about Francis (his great defense and quickness).
Another thing. As ironic as it may sound, I'm not sure even an
Iverson-level 27ppg pointguard would necessarily boost the Celtics
scoring average or team chemistry. If anything, it would be anathema
(given that we have more than enough scorers as it is). That's why I'd
much rather have a "Mark Jackson who can defend" (Andre Miller).

As for Elton Brand, I'd agree with "Ray" that this guy could get you
15ppg and 9rpg. He has a remarkable arsenal of lowpost moves most of
which (but not all) ought to work in the NBA, plus he nails his shots at
a shockingly proficient rate (60% I think). He is also noticeably
aggressive and clever in establishing position for the boards. There's
an obvious downside though, IMHO. In the final four game against
Michigan State (a game he dominated with 18 points and 15 boards), Brand
missed all his shots outside ten feet and had the ball stolen off the
dribble or lost it  literally every time he dribbled more than three
times. It is almost a given that he'll never successfully get away with
dribbling more than twice in a row (he's exactly like Robert Parish).
The big difference is one of the announcers commented that Brand "may
not even be 6-8". When you watch him standing next to his teammates
(even Corey Maggette etc), it really does seem like he's a shorty (try
it yourself, it's true). The bizzare thing is that Brand rarely jumps
higher than 4 to 6 inches off the ground. Part of it, is that he really
lacks explosiveness in this way. In one instance, he went up really
emphatically for an attempted block (I rewinded and slow played) yet his
arm didn't even come close to the rim until after the shot had passed
him. I find it hard not to compare his offensive and overall game to
Adonal Foyle, except that Foyle is 6-10 and can actually swat shots.
Again, I think Brand might do well in the NBA, but I'm shocked that he
hasn't worked on expanding his game. I guess Duke might not be the ideal
school for preparing finished NBA-level talent.

The guy with the big upside is Lamar Odom, who has raw skills fitting
somewhere between those of Antoine Walker and Grant Hill (or Penny). He
seems like a nice kid and is surprisingly articulate (for a poor
student) and thoughful in interviews. The thing is that he really is a
major flake and shows a tiny heart. He basically wallowed around campus
like a retard and missed an entire year of basketball prior to this
season. I kind of see him as a Tim Thomas-type indecisive but talented
guy. Or maybe he's a slightly bigger tease like John "Hotplate" Williams
(a major talent once upon a time). It's hard to judge someone who's 19
(or whatever), but IMHO the Celts ought to ALWAYS draft someone who is
naturally hungry to win.

I haven't ever watched Wally World play, but compared to even Van Horn
he seems to have few plus skills other than scoring. And you'd think we
wouldn't need another small forward with a reputation for playing
indifferent defense.

The bottom line IMHO, is that the top four players this year can be
considered as bonafide risks. This is just my opinion, and some of it is
obviously gut feeling rather than true knowledge, so I'm willing to
change my mind fast. Especially with Steve Francis. Geez, what's the big
freaking deal with that kid? If you had zero advance knowledge about his
talent and reputation, you might not even notice he's playing in some
games. You'd hope he's another Sidney Moncrief in the NBA, but who
knows?

I'd like to hear contrarian viewpoints, because I'm sure there are at
least a dozen bigger college basketball junkies on this list than
myself. For someone who lives out in France, I know I have a big mouth
when expressing views on such matters. I'm some sort of college
basketball spewing "Tocqueville" I guess. :-)

Joe