Will the Celtics make the playoffs in 1997-98?

[Chris Littlefield <chris@mjr.com>]

In a word?  Not very likely.  For the Celts to make the playoffs, more than
one Eastern Conference team would have to stumble pretty hard.

Let's face reality.  The Eastern Conference is really, _really_ strong
right now.  I think the C's could win 45 games and _not_ make the playoffs.
Let's go down the line:

1) Chicago.  Worst-case scenario?  Pippen is hurt part or all of the year
and they do not resign Rodman.  Unless Jordan gets _badly_ hurt, they still
win no less than 55 games, probably closer to 60 on will alone.

2) New York.  They are PISSED about last year's suspension debacle.  They
(read: Ewing) are somewhat rickety but have one of the deepest teams in the
East.  Healthy and playing like they did last year in the playoffs, they
win 62-64 games.

tie-3) Charlotte.  They won 54 games last year, lost no impact players, and
signed a new, young backcourt.  They flopped in the playoffs but ran into a
buzzsaw in NY.

tie-3) Detroit.  Grant Hill and someone else to carry the load in Brian
Williams.  Will win 50-55 games.  Could win a 1st-round series.  Still a
couple guns and thugs shy of the Conference Finals.

tie-3) Miami.  I almost forgot about these guys.  I do not like them.
Mourning going down does not help their chance to win as many games.  I
think last year's 61-win team was an aberration.  But they still have
enough tools and good enough (writing this pains me) coaching to win 53-57
games

tie-3) Atlanta.  They will be better for having played together for a year.
Alan Henderson, Ed Gray, and Priest Lauderdale may contribute more, but the
team may be hurt by having to play their home games at Georgia Tech.  This
alone costs them a few wins, but they're still a very, very dangerous team.


tie-7) Orlando.  They won 47 games last year while dealing with the loss of
Shaq, injuries to Anderson, Hardaway, and Scott, and an insurrection
against the coaching staff.  This summer they got Daly, reinforced the
front line, got rid of Scott, and will move Penny to the 2 to cut him loose
to separate Mike from his scoring title.  Only reason I put them this low
is injury potential.  They are a pretty fragile team.

tie-7) Washington.  They've got the tools to win 50-55 games and go deep
into the postseason.  Was last season's 20-8 tear to get into the playoffs
a fluke?

tie-7) Cleveland. I see these guys as almost a mirror-image of the Celtics.
Derek Anderson, if healthy, will be better than Mercer.  I think Brevin
Knight is a better _point_ guard than Billups.  Kemp, if into it mentally,
is a player on the level we think Antoine Walker can grow into.  It would
be really embarassing to Celts management if Anderson and Knight, taken at
13 and 16, turn into a better backcourt than Billups and Mercer.  Kemp,
however, is a superstar NOW.  Anderson and Knight are both older, more
mature than Billups and Mercer.  They will be, I fear, a better team.

tie-7) Indiana.  Larry had better be good this year.  This team's window is
closing, and by trading for Mullin, Bird committed to winning now.  If this
team is mired in mediocrity come the All-Star break, it might very well
disintegrate.  They've got no excuses.


	I think that all of the preceding 10 teams have the potential,
barring injuries, to be much better than Boston, based on personnel alone.

	More to follow.

	Chris