Re: Your Prediction

[Chris Littlefield <chris@mjr.com>]

Lance,


I hope you're right.  However, I disagree.  Brian Williams' last full
season, he averaged 16/9, and had some monster games against Karl Malone in
the Finals.  He's no superstar, but he's a much better inside option than
Thorpe, Ratliff, or Terry Mills ever were.  He is a significant offensive
threat.  And Detroit won 54 games (even though there was a bit of a
late-season tailspin) without anything but essentially Grant Hill.

I'm guessing about Cleveland, same as you.  Fact is, we _don't_ know.  But
I think it's a little early to start thinking about chemistry problems.
You may be thinking of Kemp, which is a possibility.  His gripes though,
were with his contract.  Cleveland will have that bad boy torn up and Kemp
financially happy before Halloween.  Until Anderson went down with the knee
injury, the consensus was that Anderson was the real go-to guy on that
Kentucky team, not Mercer.  When Anderson practiced with the team before
the Final Four, it was written by any number of independent journalists
that Anderson was the best player on the floor.  These are reasons why, if
the knee is sound, that Anderson is better than Mercer.

Knight v. Billups is again a subjective discussion.  Billups is taller and
supposedly a better shooter (though both shot only 40% or so from the
field), but Knight, if you will remember, downright mauled Payton and
Stockton in the College Boys v. Dream Team matchup.  He could go by the
Glove at will.  Payton played off him three or four steps.  I did not see
similar things from Billups, who also played in that game.  Don't get me
wrong.  I'm not saying they _will_ be better.  I'm saying they could be
better.  Anderson was a lottery pick but for his knee, and Knight was
shunned because of his height.  Stoudamire's done pretty well at 5-10,
hasn't he?


>I think your being a little too generous with some of those teams.  Detroit's
>Brian Williams has at best been an AVERAGE NBA  player.  They don't have much
>depth and little offense other than Grant Hill going to isolation.  Cleveland
>has a lot of chemistry problems and why would Knight and Anderson be better
>than Billups and Mercer - no reason.  Washington has not shown any
>consistency.  Indiana has a rookie coach with a lot of old players.  Celtics
>because of their superior coaching staff will hang with all these teams and
>compete.  Miami will be vulnerable for loses because of Mourning.  Orlando
>also is post-Shaq.
>
>Lance



>Our players will do well because of Pitino.
>
>Lance

No offense, but give me a break.  I have no idea what kind of ballplayer
you are, but I know what I am (short, no jump, no shot) and doubt that
Pitino could take you and I and make us play well at the pro level.  This
is obviously an exaggeration but the bottom line is, you gotta run whatcha
brung, and while there is huge potential in certain parts of this lineup,
we really have no idea what will happen.

I hope you are right.  In my heart of hearts, I share the same hope.
Pitino has made a living out of taking horrible teams, and moulding them
through the force of his will into a competitive group.  I hope this
happens.  I hope Indiana gets crippled by injury, that Washington is
riddled by dissension, that Orlando is not competitive, that Detroit caves
in on itself.  But if you look, from top to bottom, at those teams, they
all bring more to the table than is immediately apparent from Boston.

We'll begin to find out in 2 days now, and frankly, these last few days are
going to drive me nuts.

And just so folks don't think I'm the uber-pessimist, I think I'm suffering
from a case of multiple burns, thus exponentially shy.

In 1993-4, the first season below .500, I predicted 50 wins.  32.

Next year, I committed to 45 wins.  35.  Doh!

Year after that, I wasn't in the list, but thought again about 45.  33.

That brings us to last year, where I started to get real and predicted 20
wins.  We got 15.

If we had this team 2-3 years ago, I would have predicted playoffs 'cause
the East was weak.  That is no longer true.  I stand by my assertion:  No
playoffs this year unless multiple other teams self-destruct.  Not enough
tools and a very strong conference.  Were Boston a West Coast team, I would
say playoffs.  But you must look at the environment.

Thanks.  These are just my thoughts, and I appreciate the forum to lay it
all out for you.

Chris