random thought snd questions?

[Adam A Suchocki <Twilight@world.std.com>]

1. Why so much interest in Tim Tomas?  Most indications are he will not
come out this year, and to be honest, he has had a lot of mediocre games
this year in a watered down conference.  He may be good in the future, but
he does not look like an impact player right now - and signs are he
realizes he needs more seasoning in the NBA.

2. Why is there so much talk about Dallas being only the 8th or 9th pick.
Dallas is currently is 7th place and is only 2 wins out of 5th place?  I
just did a quick look at their schedule.  It is unbelievably tough the
rest of the way out.  Of their remaining 27 games, 19 are against teams
that currently would be in the playoffs, while only 8 are against teams on
the outside looking in (and two are against Washington who is on the
bubble).  Likewise 16 of their opponents have winning records, while only
11 have losing records (and again, five of those with losing records are
closing in on the .500 mark (Indiana, Sacramento, Washington).  On top of
that, one of the losing/outof the playoff teams is Boston, which will
probably play like crazy as it is the closest thing they have to a
meaningful game left this season.  The way Dallas is playing up until this
point (an I personally think they may play a little worse as reality sets
in) They have won 7 of 29 against the current playoff teams (24%), and
they have won 12 of 26 against the non playoff teams (46%).  Apply that to
their remaining schedule, and that would give them rougly 8 more wins and
19 losses (and a final record of 27 and 55 with a winning percentage of
33%)  On top of this, they have played more home than away games.  In
other words, besides the fact that they have made a major trade and will
be up and down, they have already played the easiest part of their
schedule - and should have a much harder time maintaining their current
position.  On top of this, slots 4 through 9 are all fairly close
together.  It is possible we may get the 9th pick, but it seems just as
possible that we get the 5th pick, and 6th or 7th seem the most probable.

3.  Why are so many people treating order of finish the same as the
outcome in the lottery.  There is not much of an advantage between number
one and number two in the lottery, and there is not that much of a
guarantee that the a top three team will get a top three pick.  Likewise,
the Dallas pick has a realistic chance of winning the lottery.  It may end
up being around 5% or so, but thats also roughly the advantage number 1
has over number two in winning the lottery.  In the past, it is more
likely than not for the worst team to not get the number one pick.  Philly
got lucky last year in that the expansion team that won the lottery
couldn't get the pick.  But in the past, Minnesota, Dallas, the Clippers,
and others have been burned by getting worse picks than their last place
finish.  Finishing last does improve the odds, but we are still talking
about percentages on the order of Eric Montrosses free throw shooting.

4. Why do so many think Antoine Walker is not a power forward.  SOmeone
went so far to say that we could not play Walker ant Power Forward because
Williams was not a good enough rebounder at small forward.  Minus the
first month of the season, Walker is a 10 board a game player.  Who are
you going to get that will give you significantly better rebounding at the
4?  You don't need 8 boards a game from your small forward if you Center
and Power Forward do the job.  Dino and Antoine are already 9 - 10 board a
game players.  Through in Duncan or Battie as a three player rotation at
the 4/5, and Williams does just fine at the small forward.  On top of
that, has anyone watched what happens to Walker when he has to play a
perimeter player - he gets abused frequently - Ferry rained jumpers on him
and Mills kept taking him off the dribble.  Walker is at home unde the
basket and should be allowed to play there - what we need is a center to
anchor the defense.

5.  Ok, I've seen Sura play several times now (last night was the worst) -
other than one pre-season game, I have seen little (besides a vertical
leap) to get excited over.  Why have there been so many calls to trade for
him?

6.  Is it just me, or has Rick Fox suddenly become a clutch player?  There
haven't been many winning moments this year, but it seems like Rick Fox
has been at the center of all of them.


Adam