Re: Lottery

I've been receiving a number of questions about the lottery odds I 
posted so I figured I'd post an explanation.  (I thought everybody 
on the list already had this info and I didn't want to clog the 
group)

Note:  This file is best viewed in a fixed font format.

Lottery Rules:

The thirteen non-playoff teams are first ranked in
reverse order of finish.  I.e., the worst team is #1,
the second team #2, etc.  Then the teams are assigned
a number of cards (or ping-pong balls if you prefer)
based on the following chart:

Ranking                Cards
- -------                -----
   1                    250
   2                    200
   3                    157
   4                    120
   5                     77
   6                     76
   7                     44
   8                     29
   9                     18
  10                     11
  11                      7
  12                      6
  13                      5

Cards are then chosen at random until three teams 
have been selected.  The first team chosen is awarded
the first pick, the next team the second pick and the
third team the third pick.  This year Toronto and 
Vancouver are not eligible for the first pick.  If 
either of their cards are chosen for the first pick
that team will be awarded the second pick and the next
team is awarded the first pick.

The ten remaining teams then receive the fourth through
thirteenth picks based on their ranking.  I.e. the 
worst remaining team gets the fourth pick, etc.


The Computation:

Computing the odds (as a percentage) of the Celtics 
getting the first pick is relatively easy.  First let
B represent the number of cards for Boston, D for the
number of cards for Dallas, T for Toronto and V for 
Vancouver.  Then the odds of the C's getting the first
pick are given by the formula:

                     B + D
                  ------------
                  1000 - T - V

Computing the odds involving the second pick is more
complicated.  One must consider every possible 
scenario for the first pick and then combine the
results.  A formula would be too large to include.

Computing odds involving the third pick is even more
complicated.  Thus, I have not bothered to compute them.