Draft Possibilities

[JASPINDLER@aol.com]

More thoughts and possibilities for the 97 draft. Based on the likelehood of
the C's finishing withone of the worst three records, and Dallas finishing
with somewhere between the 7th and 10 worst record:

My assumed draft order based on what I have read, player rankings, and who
might come out early. Hopefully I have not overlooked any obvious top 5
players:

Duncan (C)
Mercer (SG)
Battie (C/PF)
Thomas (PF)
Billups (SG)


PROBABLE scenarios:

1. Boston wins the #1 spot and also gets to pick 8th or 9th.  We draft Duncan
and the best available power forward or two guard.  Under this scenario, I
lean toward a big man with the Dallas pick.  Any candidates worth drafting in
the 8-9 slot?

2. Someone else gets the #1 spot due to bad pingpong karma. We get the 2nd or
3rd pick and the 8th or 9th pick.  The only way we get the second pick is if
we finish with a record worse than Vancouver. This leaves us with Duncan
going to the lottery winner, Mercer to the Griz and Boston taking Battie as
the consolation prize. M.L. and Larry will immediately announce that Battie
has the upside potential of Duncan, and that they are very happy with the
choice. I think if we get Battie, we focus on an impact 2 guard with the
Dallas pick, but Mercer is long gone. I would still rather go big with the
Dallas pick because I don't think there will be an impact 2 at the
8-9 slot, and we currently have 3+ players under long term contracts
(Minor,Barros and Brown) who play that position. Do we really need a young 2
guard with potential who will have to fight for meaningful minutes more than
another frontline banger?


3. Same draft order as Scenario 2. Boston attempts to package the two picks
and a player such as Radja, Barros, Brown or Ellison to the lottery winner.
This deal will be rejected unless it is the Clippers who have the #1 spot!
Boston, knowing that Pitino is ready to move on, then works a deal with the
Griz to get Mercer. Even this may be tough, because the Griz are set with
Rahim and BigCountry, and would really prefer to have Mercer than Battie. It
would probably take Rick Fox or Eric Williams to get them to swap picks.
Assuming we can make the deal happen, we need to find a center. Sign Brian
Williams or draft Khoul with the Dallas pick?

These three scenarios are what I consider to be probable and likely.  The
following are much less likely to happen due to the odds, and the rule about
the expansion teams.

Boston gets the #1 AND #2 pick
For this to happen, we need Dallas to win the pingpong, AND Boston to finish
with a worst record than the Griz.

Boston gets the #1 and a top 5 slot
For this to happen, Boston must win the pingpong, and Dallas must not win
more than about 22 games. I think they already have about 20 as of 02/27/97.

All in all the best we could expect within reasonable probabilities is either

Duncan and an 8-9 slot or
Mercer and an 8-9 slot or
Battie and an 8-9 slot.


Non Draft Issues:

There has been a lot of dialog on this list about Fox's contract. Most of it
seems misinformed. I think the situation is as follows: Fox signed a five or
six year deal in 1995 with an escape clause after the 97 season. It is HIS
option to escape and become a free agent, not the team's option to terminate
him. If Rick wants to stay here, he can just let the option expire, assuming
he feels that the existing contract will pay him fair market value.  If he
wants to leave Boston anyway, he could become an unrestricted FA, and would
take the chance that someone would pay him at
least as much as his Boston deal is worth (highly probable).  If he thinks he
is being underpaid, and wants to stay here (which I believe is the case), he
could most likely re-negotiate the existing contract with Boston.

David Wesley, on the other hand is free at the end of the season, and can do
what he wants. I firmly believe that both he and the C's have the same
intentions; that is to resign David at fair market value to a long term deal.
Most likely, Wesley will fit into the slot of Todd Day, as I don't see Day
being re-signed unless Brown and/or Barros are dealt away.  Barring the
draftday acquisition of Ron Mercer, or some trades, the likely starting 2
guard next year will be Greg Minor.  This year was totally lost for him, yet
he is a 6'5" shooting guard who plays good defense.
Minor will never be a superstar or dominant player like Mercer or Walker
might, but if healthy and playing within the framework of talent like Walker,
Duncan, Williams and Wesley he could develop into a solid team contributor.
 If given the chance, and he fails to develop, the C's can move him and find
someone else. Off gaurds will be a lot easier to get either in future drafts,
or free agency than a power forward. I repeat, go big with both picks unless
Mercer and a big manare attainable.