Re: The Boston Celtics Mailing List Digest V4 #57

["Raymond DeCampo" <rkdecamp@mailbox.syr.edu>]

> Date: Mon, 24 Feb 1997 12:35:11 -0500 (EST)
> From: JOzersky@aol.com
> Subject: lottery, etc.
> 
> I've been thinking about the odds in the Tim Duncan lottery, now that we seem
> to have the inside track.  Do we have any math majors out there?  Here is
> what I'm thinking.  Let's say we start with the chance that Vancouver,
> Toronto, Us, or Dallas gets the top pick.  Let me know the chance of that --
> i'm sure it is well over 50%.  Now, if the canadian teams come up first, they
> take out another ball, right?  So, couldn't you say in a sense that their
> balls don't figure into the lottery at all?  So our 200 plus Dallas (say) 100
> would give us 300 out of (say) 650 balls or whatever?  I guess that still
> amounts to a less than 50% shot, but does that make it more or less automatic
> that we will end up at least with the second pick, or the third? 

Nope, think again.  If Vancouver or Toronto are selected first, they 
get the second pick.  This has the effect of enhancing our odds of 
getting the first pick but deflating our odds at the second.  Here 
are the odds:

First pick:  33.8%

Second pick:  12.3%

First OR second pick:  44.4%

First AND second pick:  1.7%

These odds are based on the standings as of Monday morning.

(and by the way, I'm a grad student in mathematics...)

Ray