Celtics Preview

[tom bisson <tbisson@doe.state.vt.us>]

This Preview appeared at the website "On Hoops"
http://www.onhoops.com/articles/Jul97/boshorses.html

_______________________________________
Hold Your Horses - 97-98 Celtic Preview

July 31, 1997 

     (Chuck's Note: There's a new era in Beantown, right?)

A lot of people seem to be overly optimistic about the upcoming season
for the Boston Celtics. Many think that Mr. Armani
himself, Rick Pitino, will come into town and turn around this miserable
team from the "somewhere in the teens" win total of last
season to a borderline-playoff club in one year. While there are a
number of reasons to be excited about the upcoming season
(M.L. and his open checkbook are history, banana slugs like Todd Day,
Nate Driggers and Alton Lister are history, the leprechaun
logo is back to it’s traditional black and white, etc. ) let’s not get
overzealous. Why? Well, first of all, let’s look at exactly what has
changed since last season and determine if all those changes are really
for the better:

ML Out: Pitino In - No doubt, this is a change for the better. I always
looked at ML as stopgap fix gone bad anyway. While he
did do some decent things (trading that stiff Montoss for the #6 pick,
allowing Antoine Walker the freedom to really show he has
game), he also did in the Celtics in the long-run by making some
boneheaded free agent signings ("Out of Service" Pervis Ellison,
Dana "Prototype One-Dimensional Tweener" Barros and Greg "Do I even have
a position?" Minor) that will keep the salary cap
clogged for seasons to come. At least in the front office, this looked
like a good change, but Pitino has made some positively
puzzling moves in recent weeks, signing guys like Travis Knight, Andrew
DeClerq, and Bruce Bowen (who?) to multi-year deals
of their own. But more on this later. At least from a coaching
standpoint, this is better. As far as long-term salary cap implications,
the jury is out.

Personnel Changes - I still don’t see why it was even news that Pitino
released 9 players awhile ago to free up money for
Travis Knight. I mean seriously, did anyone think Steve Hamer and
Michael Hawkins were cornerstones for the future of this
once proud franchise? Letting Rick Fox go was a foregone conclusion, he
is simply a less talented version of Antoine Walker,
even though he probably provides a better locker room presence at this
stage. But are the guys they’ve added really much of a
quantum leap over who’s gone? Well, let’s see…..

Ron Mercer looks like a carbon copy of a guy they already have on the
roster. His name is Greg Minor. Except for the fact that
Minor has already been proven to be quite injury prone, their games are
frighteningly similar; average defense, questionable
perimeter skills, stunning athleticism, very little understanding for
the game of basketball, suspect ballhandling, and no well defined
position (which is where the term swingman really comes from). Mercer’s
disappearing act in the NCAA Finals raised some
brows, and I think for good reason. Assuming his perimeter skills come
along, at best he could be a Jerry Stackhouse, but then
again, is that really a good thing? I doubt he’ll get the ball enough,
or be allowed to freelance enough to be an effective shooting
guard. Call me crazy, but I think he’ll be the earliest draftee to be a
slight disappointment (CN: This is a pretty safe call, if only
because he was taken ahead of Tim Thomas).

Chauncey Billups comes amid much praise, and I’ll be 100% honest in
saying I have only seen him play twice, and with mixed
results. As a freshman, I saw him nearly single-handedly beat Kansas. He
was dazzling. I saw a guy who with improvement in his
shot could be a triple double threat someday. Then, I saw him play UNC
as a sophomore and came away totally unimpressed. He
seemed to have regressed to somewhat of a ball-hog that liked shooting a
lot of 3’s, and only passed when he thought the dish was
would-be highlight material. Quite a few times they simply ended up as
turnovers. With a more disciplined system (he HAD to do
everything at Colorado) and some work on his shot he could be good, but
I don’t think he’s an immediate improvement over the
departed David Wesley. Geez, why does this backcourt seem eerily similar
to that which played in the City of Brotherly Love last
season?

Travis Knight is a fine pickup. The only problem is of course, the
contract. While Knight had 4-5 good games for the Lakers last
year, he is NOT a starting center, much less the type of guy you sign
for 7 years and $22M. I mean really, he barely averaged 15
minutes per game last year. And yes, he was impressive in limited time,
but then again, when you play opposite low post threats
like Shaq and Elden who demand double teams, you will get more than
enough open shots to look impressive. (Even Corie Blount
had some good games last season) This is straight out of the annals of
‘Big-White-Stiffs’ past like Jon Koncak and everyone’s
latest favorite whipping boy, Jimmy McIllvaine. I would suspect by this
time next year, fans will be complaining about how
Knight’s monster contract is limiting the team’s ability to pursue free
agents. I bet ML is probably somewhere getting a good laugh
outta this one.

DeClerq, Massenburg and Bowen (who?) are nice space fillers, but instead
of locking up the cap with no-names like this, why not
rough it for a year with minimum salaried CBAer’s and try to use the
money they freed up when they got rid of Dino Radja to try
and pursue a free agent big man next season? DeClerq is a nice active,
15-20mpg player who will hustle his butt off and snare an
occasional double double, but 5yrs and $8.5M for this kind of player
seems a bit steep. I love the addition of Tony Massenburg, but
I’m sure there’s some logical reason why he changes teams at the end of
every season, more often. You don’t give this kind of
player the security of a 3 year contract. And Bruce Bowen (who?) getting
a 2 year deal is downright laughable. Maybe Pitino
knows something the rest of the world is missing, but I think if Ray
Charles were a GM, even he would know that you don’t give
an ex CBA player who has played exactly ONE minute of ONE NBA game a
multiyear deal. I’ll reserve judgement, because
maybe this guy is a true player, but if so, why didn’t he make the
Heat’s playoff roster?

Are all these personnel changes for the better? Probably so, because you
are at least on paper getting better talent in return. Good
enough talent to change things dramatically? Probably not.

Dino Bolts Town - After a series of somewhat comical events, Ino (no
"D") Radja was finally set free to pursue other interests.
While I think it was a good idea to get rid of his monster contract and
matador defense, they C’s woulda been much better off
putting this cap space in a mutual fund and saving it for next summer
(Joe Smith would be a nice fit). But with the recent spending
spree, all that money is gone, and the team still does not have a
formidable low post threat, which is what Dino DID provide. This
would seem like a step back.

Pitino’s System and Antoine Walker - While I was quite impressed with
Walker’s stats last year (he had a few triple doubles)
and his versatility was eye-opening (started a center a good part of the
season), you have to wonder if a lot of his effectiveness
didn't have something to do with the fact that he was allowed to
freelance a lot by the non-existent coaching staff. While he
showed a lot more game than many expected, it’s also quite likely he was
being held back while at UK by Pitino's system. Now,
what happens in the NBA when that system is imposed again? Only time
will tell if he becomes a better player (he certainly has
All-Star ability) or regresses with the change of authority. Assuming he
does improve as expected, does he really want to play for
Pitino (judging by some comments I read this summer, that is
questionable) and if so, at what cost (again, the salary cap comes
into play, and yes, I know about the Larry Bird exception) to the team
next offseason when contract talks begin?

Cagey Vets - What do you do with untradeable, high salaried holdovers
like Dee Brown and the previously mentioned Barros,
Ellison, and Minor? You hope they’ll just be quiet and give up playing
time to all the youngsters, but how often to things happen like
that? With so many new faces, friction is inevitable. And where in the
world does Eric Williams fit in?

All in all, this team has a lot more questions than answers right now.
As much as I like Pitino, and do see them improving (not very
hard to do considering last year’s record), there are a lot of things
that need to be sorted out. In short, don’t expect a quantum
leap. I’d say 20-25 wins and a return trip to the lottery next Summer.

         -Robb Anderson