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my initial thoughts on the trade
On Feb 19, 2004, at 2:04 PM, Berry, Mark S wrote:
I think this sucks. They didn't even get the Milwaukee pick. Ainge
needs
to have a second deal set up to make this worthwhile. James/Atkins is a
wash on the floor, but Atkins has a terrible contract for two more
seasons. A late first-rounder isn't worth that swap. And we lose the
Mills contract.
Look I'm not sold on this deal either -- i see it as moving around deck
chairs on the titanic (as the saying goes -- i don't think the C's are
in that bad of shape...) -- but really this is just moving spare parts
around. If someone had said 2 weeks ago would you trade Mike James for
a #1 pick would you have done it? I would have.
We all had high hopes for Mills contract fetching us something -- but
when you look at it, not many expiring contracts got traded (the
gugliotta trade had lux. tax implications). So maybe its a case of
wishful thinking on our part. I suppose the thinking could go that by
doing a lateral trade we've actually hurt ourselves b/c this trade
guarantees Okur stays with detroit (who will also probably resign James
-- he's certainly a Larry Brown type). But we need to worry about the
C's.
I think there are a few other things to keep in mind -- outside of the
fact that we really don't know how much (if anything) Ainge could have
gotten for Mills -- I assume he could have gotten more, but who knows.
1. Expansion Draft
yeah we added more salary, but the one silver lining here might be that
with a relatively small contract, its quite possible that Charlotte
grabs Atkins in the exp. draft, thus freeing him from our salary cap
and making this trade truly James for Detroit's #1.
If you look at what else is out there vs. their respective salaries,
Atkins looks to be at about the top end of available players
talent-wise who have non-insane contracts
(http://www.igtc.com/archives/celtics/2004/Jan/msg00597.html).
Maybe Derek Fisher is available at about the same money, and Howard
Eisley, Nick Van Exel, Moochie Norris at more money,.
If we protect:
1. Pierce
2. Welsch
3. Davis
4. Banks
5. Perkins
6. Hunter
7. Mihm (you have to protect Restricted FA's or they can be picked then
become UFA)
8. Blount (if he opts out then Jones or McCarty (hopefully the former))
Atkins
LaFrentz (though if Blount opts out maybe they protect Raef as a PR
move)
McCarty/Jones
Stewart
are then available. Stewart is too expensive given what he can do (the
Bobcats only have $30 million cap); McCarty is cheaper than Atkins, but
not by much and Atkins is at least arguably a starter (esp. for an
expansion team) -- whereas McCarty is only arguably at NBA player at
all.
1a. Carroll will be gone in 27 games. Ainge will undoubtedly hire a
coach who agrees with his offensive philosophy and who will put players
like Mihm, Banks, Davis, Welsch, et al., in a position to succeed.
2. The Picks
Even a Detroit #1 pick is ultimately more valuable (short, medium and
long term) to the Celtics than James was/would have been. As much as I
like him and what he's done here, were we really going to resign James
this summer? I doubt it -- i think he had played himself into a
multi-year deal for someone looking for a good 3rd guard (if we had a
real PG, I'd push for US to sign him as a Vinnie Johnson, Bobby Jackson
type 3rd guard -- but alas). Haven't we been talking all year about
needing a real PG?
While the Dallas and Detroit picks will be mid 20s, maybe part of the
problem is that we're (C's fans) still thinking/looking at picks as if
this were the Pitino/Obrien/Wallace regime -- they ROUTINELY messed up
draft picks (and then Obrien wouldn't play the rookies even when we got
them) so picks were almost uselesss. Hopefully that's changed. Look
at Wallace's draft record:
1999 - traded pick for vitaly
2000 - Picked Moiso (#11 a soph) over Jamal Magloire (who Pitino
coached at Kentucky, #19), Q. Richardson (#18 - just as much a gamble
as Moiso and had a much better rep coming out of DePaul), Desmond
Mason (#17), heck even Etan Thomas (#12) would have been better -- I'll
give them a pass on Turkoglu (who knew). Oh yeah and traded 2 #2s for
Josip Sesar -- who's not walking through that door....
2001 - JJ is a good pick still IMO (though Wallace messed it up by
trading him (#10 pick) and #23 next year for Rogers + Delk); Picked
Kedrick (#11) while Troy Murphy(14), Richard Jefferson (#13), Vlad
Radmanovic(#12) and Zach Randolph (#19) were still on the board -- sure
Zach was seen as a gamble, but he won a National champiionship, was he
any more a gamble than Kedrick?; Picked Forte over Tinsley (27),
Parker (28) and Hassell and Arenas (2nd round picks).
2002 - traded pick with JJ; Made a nice pick in Songaila (#50) then
messed that up by not signing him -- not that we needed a PF or
anything.
Wallace's talent was/is finding low cost free agents (see: Bruce Bowen,
Adrian Griffin, Erick Strickland), not drafting. I still believe that
the key to rebuilding a team is through the draft (which Ainge & Wyc
seem to be saying too).
The draft has radically changed with the influx of HS seniors, College
fresh + soph, and foriegn players, to the point where the late 1st
round picks and early 2nd round are more and more producing good
players -- Tinsley, Parker, Arenas, tayshaun Prince, John Salmons,
Carlos Boozer, etc. Sean G has pointed this out in his Draft History
post.
I think Ainge sees this. Of course its too early to tell, but unlike
Wallace his first draft seems OK. Instead of Banks you could maybe
argue Cabarkapa might be a better player sooner. Instead of Perkins
maybe Barbosa or Josh Howard, Luke Walton is a big stretch, but will be
a decent pro. But a big 7' at 27 is nowhere near the stretch a JUCO
kid is at #11 (with loads of talent still on the board).
If we come away from this draft with (1) a senior (a la Boozer, Prince,
Tinsley, Josh Howard, Walton, Songaila, Earl Watson) ready to
contribute next year (2) a college underclassman or foreign player
ready to contribute in maybe a smaller way (a la Jiri Welsch, John
Salmons, Barbosa,) and (3) a foriegn player to keep overseas a year or
two (a la Peja Stojakovic (origianly), Marko Jaric, Okur, Delfino,
etc.) -- thought this can backfire and become Ben Pepper or Sessar; it
should be viewed as a success.
Of course other teams realize this too and there are players to be had
nearer to the draft -- could we wrestle Gooden or Randolph away with 2
picks? Lets hope so.
3. Dumars & Isaiah --
Remember the easiest jump is from really bad to pretty good -- which is
what Isaiah is doing. Yes he's upgraded the talent and gotten rid of
some crap, and the Knicks are surging, but are they any closer to a
title than we are? I don't think so. Maybe a little, but Nazr
Mohammed is not going to be the starting Center on a NBA championship
team. Perkins might not be either, but he's got at least got a chance
to improve. And Tim Thomas is your starting PF? I. Thomas has
breathed life back into the Knicks but he's got a long way to go before
this Knicks team becomes anything but last year's version of the
Indiana Pacers (the ones we knocked out of the playoffs).
Dumars on the other hand, is starting to look like this generation's
Jerry West. He just continues to make great moves (including drafting
so well).
The key to all of this is buiilding value in our roster. With low
price, high production players like Welsch and Davis and 3 #1 picks,
Ainge should be in a very strong position this summer to add a true
talent (Steve Francis, Ray Allen, etc).
(the other) mark