Dampier with a little Van Exel on the side?

[Celtic4Hire@xxxxxxx]

Posted on Mon, Feb. 16, 2004 

 
 
 
 


To trade or not as deadline looms

By Matt Steinmetz

CONTRA COSTA TIMES


OAKLAND - With Thursday's trade deadline bearing down, Warriors management finds itself with decisions to make. In the next few days, through their action or inaction, it will become apparent what direction the Warriors are heading.

There are three distinct choices for the Warriors (23-28), who find themselves on the periphery of playoff contention. They can sit tight, try to make a trade to acquire a player or try to make a move that will yield immediate cap room.

There is no obvious choice. Each of those avenues has advantages and drawbacks.

b" OPTION 1: Sit tight.

The upside: Warriors players and management were optimistic at the start of the season that this team might be the one to break the franchise's nine-year playoff drought. With 31 games remaining, the Warriors are 61/2 games behind Denver, which is holding down the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Warriors aren't all the way done, but it would likely take a 21-10 finish to have a postseason shot. Even then, they probably will need help. The good news is that the Warriors are getting healthier. Point guard Nick Van Exel, who has inflammation in his left knee, was ready to play before the All-Star break, and he will have had another seven days of rehab before Wednesday's game against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Power forward Troy Murphy, who has a deep bone bruise in his right ankle, is expected back sometime after the break. Mike Dunleavy is on the mend from a sprained left ankle. There are no assurances the Warriors have a push in them. But they will be more equipped to make a run now than at any time this season.

Also, by standing pat, the Warriors would preserve their ability to get under the salary cap following the 2005-06 season. Only Dunleavy, Evan Eschmeyer and Mickael Pietrus have contracts for the 2006-07 season.

The downside: Should the Warriors elect not to make a trade, a scenario exists in which the last three or four weeks of the season could turn into the equivalent of garbage time at the end of a blowout loss. The Warriors have had those kinds of seasons before and they're not pretty.

Also, if the Warriors don't make a move, it sets up the possibility that center Erick Dampier, who has an opt-out clause in his contract that he can exercise at the end of the season, would leave without compensation.

Ditto for Van Exel, who also has an opt-out clause at season's end. Van Exel, however, has said he's not likely to opt out because it would mean giving up $11.8 million. Dampier remains non-committal.

By not making a trade, the Warriors would be looking at an offseason determining whether to re-sign their own free agents, which include Adonal Foyle, Brian Cardinal and Calbert Cheaney.

b" OPTION 2: Trade for a player or players who will be part of the future.

The upside: The Warriors appear to have some tradable assets. Dampier, who is having his finest season as a professional, has drawn interest. With his opt-out clause an issue, it's obvious why the Warriors are considering moving him.

Van Exel's name also has come up. If healthy, he could provide a boost to a playoff contender. He also holds value for a team looking to get under the salary cap after next season because that's when his contract expires -- provided, of course, he doesn't opt out at the end of this season. Clifford Robinson and Foyle are trade possibilities.

By dangling Dampier, one of the game's better centers, and Van Exel, a proven playoff performer, the Warriors might be able to get a competent player or two that they believe can become part of their core and long-term future.

The downside: Trading either Dampier or Van Exel is dicey. Dampier appears to be entering the prime of his career, and the Warriors have to be concerned about moving him at just the wrong time. If they trade either Dampier or Van Exel, or both, the Warriors will have to make sure that the player or players they get in return will be assets down the line.

Should the Warriors acquire a player or players with significant years remaining on their contracts, it will likely foil any opportunity the team had to get under the salary cap in 2006.

b" OPTION 3: Trade for a player or players with expiring contracts.

Upside: One of the reasons the Warriors had been talking to Portland about trading Dampier and Van Exel for Rasheed Wallace, whose contract expires at the end of the season, was because it would have accelerated their ability to become a player in the free agent market. Had that trade been made, the Warriors would have had significant cap room this summer and been able to enter what everyone is calling "the Kobe Bryant Sweepstakes."

Bryant is expected to exercise his out-clause at the end of the season and test the free agent waters. By trading a player or two with significant money remaining on their deals for a player or players who are free agents at the end of this season, the Warriors then have the ability to be a player when it comes to Bryant. As of now, only about a half-dozen teams will likely have the kind of money it will take to sign Bryant. The Warriors, though, would be one.

A few notables on the final year of their contracts are Phoenix's Antonio McDyess and Tom Gugliotta, Boston's Chris Mills and Milwaukee's Toni Kukoc. However, the reason those players are coveted by other teams -- to possibly create some instant cap space -- is the same reason their current teams want to hold onto them.

The downside: Cap room doesn't guarantee signing a big-name free agent. Should the Warriors acquire expiring contracts to ensure getting under the cap at the end of this season, it doesn't mean they'll automatically acquire a difference-maker in the offseason.

Denver had cap room last summer and couldn't use it all. Chicago and Utah have had cap space in recent years and haven't been able to do much with it. Cap room is not a panacea. And this year's free agent class, with the exception of Bryant, is not considered strong.