Simmons Very Excited About Celtics; Talks Toine; Predictions

[wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

http://espn.go.com/page2/s/simmons/031031.html

Mr. Bill picks them 3rd in the East

3. Boston Celtics
And you think I'm kidding. Let's recap the two crucial elements that need to be in place for my world-renowned Ewing Theory, which worked so splendidly just last season (with the Pistons): 
1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his team never wins anything substantial with him. 
2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) -- and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season. 
(Hmmmmm ... sounds a little like Antoine Walker, doesn't it?) 
And it's not just the Ewing Theory. There are some other factors working here. Like Raef LaFrentz -- great athlete, good defender, surprisingly effective shotblocker, always around the ball -- and he never has been on the right team. Like Paul Pierce, an MVP candidate who's dying -- repeat: dying -- to prove that he can win 50 games without Antoine. Like Jim O'Brien, who's finally getting to coach the team he always wanted to coach (hustling defenders, point guards pushing the ball, agile big men who run the floor and block shots). 

NBA PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS	
First Round: Indiana (1), New Jersey (2), Boston (3) and New Orleans (5) advance in the East; Dallas (1), Los Angeles (2), Phoenix (6) and San Antonio (4) advance in the West.  Second Round: Indiana over NO; NJ over Boston; Dallas over SA; LA over Phoenix. Conference Finals: LA over Dallas in 6; Indiana over NJ in 7. NBA Finals: LA over Indiana in 6.
 	
Best of all, there's Vinnie Baker. Turns out the guy was drunk for four consecutive years. Not an exaggeration. He even admits it. Well, not only was Baker Boston's second-best player in the exhibition season, he was even draining turnarounds and dunking on people and stuff. Watching the sober, skinnier Baker for the first time was like seeing Katie Holmes get naked in "The Gift" -- you couldn't even believe it as it was happening. Just surreal. If Vinnie B. doesn't average 15 points and eight rebounds a game this season, I'll be stunned. What a turn of events. 
Something feels right about this team. I can't explain it. As much as I enjoyed the Antoine Walker Era, everything that's about to happen will prove one thing: It was time for him to go. You'll see


And Antoine Walker ... believe me, I watched him for seven years straight. He can't get to the line. He can't score down low against any above-average defender (Kenyon Martin simply demolished him last May). He launches an utterly ludicrous amount of threes. Statistically, he's a 38-percent shooter who took an astounding 1,554 shots to score 1,570 points last season. Think about that for a second. For instance, Duncan took 1,374 shots to score 1,884 points, and Nowitzki took 1,489 shots to score 2,011 points. Walker barely averaged one point per shot. Was there a less efficient All-Star in the league?
Now throw this in: He's a below-average defender. He stopped rebounding about three years ago. Maybe he'll make "SportsCenter" with an occasional highlight pass, but you won't see the three other passes he bounced off the basket support that same night. And he was such a dominant personality in Boston, his teammates tuned him out after awhile -- did you notice how none of the Celtics spoke up against the trade (not even Paul Pierce or Jim O'Brien)?
Antoine's best quality doubled as his worst quality: His unwavering belief that he's the best player on the floor in every game. That's fine when you're playing in Boston, but watch what happens in Dallas -- in close games, much like Van Exel did last spring, he'll keep launching shots that should have gone to better scorers. Eventually, Nelson won't play him in crunch time anymore, which will destroy Twan because A.) he needs numbers (it's a contract year for him); and B.) he won't handle being an afterthought on a 60-win team. I already feel bad for him and the season hasn't even started yet.
On a bigger stage, I just feel that Twan's considerable flaws will be magnified for everyone to see. It's too bad. He really does care. He just isn't nearly as good as he thinks. In theory, he's perfect for them -- someone who can handle the ball, score down low against the right matchups, drain an occasional big three, and provide some of that swagger that Van Exel gave them. I just don't think Twan will accept being a complementary player. After watching him for his entire career, including about 200 games in person, I feel pretty safe making that statement.