4 possible trades at the deadline

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I'm curious what other folks think of these trading deadline deals 
involving EWill and Mills (I agree with the person who said that the 
real impact of the Walker trade is that Ainge has one shot to either 
deal these contracts for an impact player at the deadline or let them 
run out and take a shot at a discounted Median Exception veteran (a la 
Howard in Orlando, Olowakandi in Minn).  I guess I'd prefer an impact 
player if we can get them:

EWill/Mills for Antawan Jamison
(the more I think about this the more I think it makes sense for both 
sides:  For Boston we get the #2 star that allows LaFrentz & Baker to 
take their rightful places as #3 & 4 players.  As much as I'd like to 
keep Ewill, imagine our 2003-04 starting lineup of 
Banks/Pierce/Jamison/Baker/LaFrentz with a 2nd unit of 
James/K.Brown/Jones/Battie/Perkins...WOW!

"Why would Dallas do this deal" you ask?  I personally think that this 
whole 5 all-star thing isn't going to work and SOMEONE's going to be 
grumpy about playing time -- especially since the Mavs will be 5 or 6th 
seed by the trade deadline (according to my crystal ball...;).  It 
looks like Nellie has gone with Walker over Jamison in the Battle of 
the Twan's.  Getting Ewill gives them another "glue-guy" to go with 
Najera, and he's great friends (and business partners) with Toine so 
Walker would gladly sign off on it and sell it to the other Mavs.  
Ewill & Mills' exp. contracts also free up some space for Steve Nash's 
coming extension -- which they need a lot more than a Max. salary 6th 
man (Jamison))

EWill/Battie/Mills/3 #1 picks (Dallas' #1 + 2 Boston's #1) for Chris 
Webber
OK, we've entered the Fantasy Stratosphere here, but maybe there's a 
10% chance of this happening -- but only if the Kings are 
middle-of-the-pack out West.  Here's why.

You could argue that as good as Webber is his effect on the Kings is 
slightly similar (though a much less negative) than Walker's was on the 
Celtics (with a dash of Grant Hill's Orlando effect thrown in):  He's 
the dominant force/personality on the Kings team when in reality he's 
probably much better suited to being the #1a guy -- and as good as he 
still is, is starting the downside of his career.  As long as he's in 
Sacramento this remains his team, rather than Peja/Bibby's.  The 15-30 
games he misses a year keep the Kings from being a 
firing-on-all-cylinders juggernaut that they should be.  Lets say by 
the time Webber gets back the Kings are 4th or 5th in the West and its 
clear its a 2-team race with the Lakers/Spurs.  If the Kings want to 
avoid becoming the 1990 Celtics -- a team getting old without much on 
the horizon -- and instead attempt the on-the-fly transition Pheonix 
has been so good at, this trade allows them to stockpile picks 
(actually break even b/c they owe one each to Detroit & Orlando), get a 
decent PF (Battie) to start alongside Brad Miller and 2 contracts 
(Ewill/Mills) @ about $9 mil to go with Divac's $10 mil, Funderburke's 
$3 mil to go after a younger Free Agent (say throw a little more money 
than they should at Kenyon Martin hoping he's pissed enough at NJ to 
leave; Or offer Rasheed Wallace $8 mil, Stro Swift $5 mil and Darius 
Miles $5 mil).  Plus with Webber out East they only have to see him 2x 
a year.

The Kings start:  Bibby/Christie/Peja/Martin (or R. Wallace)/B. Miller 
with a 2nd unit of B Jackson/Peeler/G. Wallace/Songaila/Battie.  It'd 
be a risk for the Kings, but is slowly getting worse any better than 
taking a bold chance?

For the C's this is a no-brainer.  Even though he's starting the 
decline of his career, Webber still become's the #2 star to Pierce and 
fits right into our newfound passing game.  We've now got enough parts 
to insulate against Webber going down.  Our 2003-04 lineup would be 
Banks/Pierce/Jones/Webber/Baker with a 2nd unit of 
James/K.Brown/Hunter/LaFrentz/Perkins...Scary (and also pretty 
unlikely).  Again it lets Baker and LaFrentz become #3 and #4 options 
and allows LaFrentz to become 6th man.  The other nice thing is that 
his contract expires the same time as Pierce's.

Ewill/Mills for Penny Hardaway
We've heard about Battie for B. Knight, but I think this makes more 
sense for both sides as a Boston-Pheonix trade.

Pheonix would get $9mil in exp. contracts to go along with the $10mil 
(Gugliotta) and $5mil (B. Knight) they already have coming off.  With 
Amare Stoudemire's extension 3 years off (and Joe Johnson's 2 years 
off) this gives the Suns $25 mil to go after a big time Free Agent (and 
still stay away from Lux. tax land).  Hardaway is now only their 6th 
man and his numbers last year are remarkably close to Williams' (10 
ppg, 5 reb, 4 apg (williams' 2 apg), 1spg), so losing him isn't as big 
a blow as it once would have been -- and negligible in the long run 
since it lets them add a Max. Free Agent (they'd then have to decide 
whether to keep the Max. Free Agent or Shawn Marion when Stoudemire's 
extension comes due...).

For the C's this is also about contracts.  Its different than the other 
2 deals, in that we don't get a true impact player this year, but defer 
capspace for 2 years while adding a legit NBA starter.  Despite being 
only the 6th man for Pheonix I imagine Penny would start (but only play 
25-30 mpg to preserve his health) for the C's and allow Pierce to move 
to the 3.  He also provides medium-term insurance should Banks take 
longer than expected to pan out at PG.  Just 3 years ago Penny averaged 
16 ppg, 6 reb, 6 ast.  I think as a key part of the C's uptempo game 
(as opposed to a spare part of Pheonix's uptempo game) he could match 
those numbers -- and IIRC, Ainge is the guy who signed Penny so maybe 
he can have an effect too.  Banks/Hardaway/Pierce/Baker/LaFrentz with a 
2nd unit of James/K.Brown/Jones/Battie/Perkins would be our lineup.  
The real key is the shot it gives us in 2006 when we have nearly $30 
million in expiring contracts (Battie $5 mil, Baker $14mil, Penny 
$14mil) for a shot at a Max. Free Agent (or 2 2nd tier) (2006=Curry, 
Chandler, Nene, Gasol, Zach Randolph, Gooden, Tony Parker, Brendan 
Haywood, Shaq(! -- imagine for a minute Shaq leaving LA if they decide 
to build around Kobe...what better team to come to than the Laker's 
arch-rivals)

Its a gamble and probably doesn't let us add a mid-level guy this 
summer -- so you only would do it if you thought the upgrade of Penny 
over Ewill is near what you'd get with the mid-level.

EWill/Mills for Tim Thomas -- TT is an underacheiver -- same career 
stats as EWill @ 3x the money -- but maybe playing with a star like 
Pierce and with a PF like Baker, allows him to become the #2/3 guy he 
should be.  Gives us the max money in 2006 like in the Penny scenario, 
but with a player with more potential (i hate that "upside" term).  
Slightly less big payoff for Milwaukee as with Pheonix -- they get 
$9mil to go with the $7 mil coming off from Kukoc.  Thomas seems like 
the odd man out with Redd/Mason/Skinner/Smith forward rotation.

Other less appealing options:
EWill/Mills for Nick Van Exel -- Big risk, but Van Exel showed last 
year he's still got something in the tank.  Does going back to a 
competing team relight the fire?  Allows Banks 1 more year to develop 
and gives us a 1a scorer.  Golden St. gets some capspace to go with 
Avery Johnson and Adonal Foyle's deals.  NVE isn't part of their future 
anyways and like the Thomas and Hardaway deals gives us space in 2006

EWill/Mills for Antonio Davis/Moiso/Bradley -- Is AD too old?  I think 
he's got 2 more years in him.  Again this gives us space in 2006.  But 
AD has to play C or push Baker there.  Or maybe you bring him off the 
bench for 15 ppg/10reb.

Mills for Harrington/Brewer -- Harrington hasn't been able to crack the 
Pacers starting lineup.  Without him they still have Croshere, Bender 
and Jeff Foster coming off the bench so they don't lose much.  They 
gain some lux. tax breathing room.  Maybe playing with Pierce and the 4 
Bigs lets Harrington bloom.

thanks,
(the other) mark