2003-04 prediction (Celtics & NBA)

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

[Snoopy -- i mostly read the list via the web, where Addresses are 
XXXXXXXXX'ed out to block spam, so sorry i didn't get this to the right 
address]

While my prediction might not reflect it, I can't remember being this 
excited about a season since 1997 (Pitino's first season).  I have a 
lot of confidence in what Ainge is doing and was really encouraged with 
OBrien's comments today that the last few seasons, last year 
especially, that he was just trying to survive -- due to a 
(Wallace-induced-)lack of depth.  Run, Celtics, Run!

PREDICTION:  41-41, 6th in East (3rd in Atlantic)

Rationale:  I think it will take some time for the team to gel and 
become familiar with each other, but will become comfortable with each 
other by February.  But I also think (hope) Ainge is going to do 
something around the Trade Deadline which will hurt their overall 
record (like Orlando last year) but radically improve our chances for 
next season (say: Mills & Williams for Antawan Jamison? Please!?!)

For those of you familiar with Bill Simmons'  Ewing theory are this 
year's Celtics eligible?


Here's how I see the rest of the NBA shaking out (comments welcomed)

EAST
1.  Detroit (52-30) -- everyone seems to forget they had a better 
record than the Nets AND added Larry Brown
2.  Philly (50-32) -- Ayers is talking the same up tempo as 
Ainge/Obrien; Marc Jackson is the key to surprising the East
3.  Indiana (51-31) -- losing Isaiah is good for 4 more wins alone.
4.  New Jersey (45-37) -- Martin and Jefferson are already nicked up, 
the last 2 years catch up this year
5.  New Orleans (45-37) -- too much talent to finish much lower, Floyd 
can't be that bad can he?
6.  Boston (41-41) -- see above; Sticking with prediction we finish 
ahead of fellow-Floridians, Magic
7.  Chicago (40-42) -- If Chandler misses extended time, they could 
slip out of playoffs, otherwise lower than 8 = disappointment
8.  Orlando (40-42) -- I don't see Howard making the difference they 
need, predict McGrady breaks down at some point
--------------------------
9.  Washington (37-45) -- Nice young core and good coach, not crazy 
about their bench though.
10.  Atlanta (36-46) -- I actally don't think the Hawks will be as bad 
as everyone else.  Losing Big Dog is addition by subtraction
11.  Milwaukee (35-47) -- As with Atlanta, I think some stabilty in 
Milw. (Porter, team not for sale) will help make up for loss of talent
12.  Miami (31-51) -- You never know with the Heat, but I think they'll 
be helped by moving on from Zo
13.  Toronto (29-53) -- too much talent to finish this low, but 
everyone seems to be unhappy and Moiso can't beat out Bosh, not a good 
sign.
14.  Cleveland (27-55) -- Silas (not James, who will be good initially, 
not great IMO) may actually have them competing for a playoff spot by 
next season.  I like how they're building this team, I'm happy for JR 
Bremer that he landed there.
15.  New York (26-56) -- Sprewell's gone, Houston's hurt, their 
thinking of waiving their 2nd best PF, Mutombo is calcified (but will 
still help).  NY is a mess and McDyess will probably get hurt 20 games 
into his comeback.  Hello, Lottery.  <start Jim Mora voice>:  
Playoffs?!?  Playoffs?!!? </jim Mora>


WEST
1.  San Antonio (60-22) -- Every year i think they'll slip and every 
year I'm wrong.  Their bench finishes 8th in the East.
2.  Sacramento (59-23) -- Better that Webber's hurt now rather than at 
the end of the year.
3.  LA Lakers (56-26) -- Bryant becomes a Grant Hill-like distraction, 
but too much talent to finish lower. Shaq carries 'em.
4.  Dallas (55-27) -- This can't work.  I hope it implodes and they 
trade us Antawan Jamison for cap relief.
5.  Minnesota (52-30) -- Too much turnover to finish much higher, but 
by the end of the year they'll be scary.
6.  Houston (47-35) -- Should be better than this with Yao, but it'll 
take a year for Van Gundy to get them top 4
7.  Pheonix (47-35) -- Marbury seems to be getting it finally and looks 
like they may have a new starting C (Battie?)
8.  Portland (47-35) -- When Portland is relying on Bonzi Wells for 
leadership I think you have a problem.  Will miss Pippen
--------------------------
9.  Seattle (39-43) -- If Allen misses more than a month, drop them 2-3 
places
10.  Memphis (37-45) -- A full year of Hubie-Ball and the addition of 
Posey, Miller (full year) gets them to the doorstep of the playoffs.  
Could sneak in if either Swift plays like he did when Wright was gone 
last year or if they can trade him for a  legit PF/C.
11.  Golden St. (35-47) -- reminds me of the Nique/Radja-era Celtics.  
Would you rather be replacing our Antoine with LaFrentz or their 
Antawan with Dunleavy (who i think will be another Duke bust)?  I'm 
glad I'm a Cetlics fan.
12.  LA Clippers (32-50) -- New coach and the loss of distractions 
(entire starting 5 were free agents this summer) will allow this team 
to start getting better.
13.  Utah (29-53) -- Best preseason record, suprise.  Won't be as bad 
as some are predicting, as long as Sloan is coaching.  Masterfully 
using their salary cap space to (a) stockpile picks & cash, and (b) 
retain flexibility for next year.  They won't stay down for long -- 
they're front office is too good.
14.  Denver (22-60) -- Overall, I think the additions to this team this 
summer were fair to poor.  4 guards (Miller, Lenard, Barry, Boykins) 
when your only Centers/PF are Nene and Camby?