Raef vs. Antoine, per 48

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

We've discussed many times the holes in per 48 minutes stats, but I'm going
to throw some out there anyway. I do think they're a little more relevant
than some of the per 48 comparisons where people extrapolate the stats of a
guy who plays 10 minutes per game. That's a situational guy. Raef and
Antoine both are significant rotation players. Raef has averaged 

I'm only comparing points and rebounds. Everyone knows Antoine gets more
assists and Raef gets more blocks. The players aren't really comparable in
those stats. We also know about the differences in shooting percentages,
which don't change when considering per-48 stats.

Antoine per 48 last season: 23.3 points, 8.4 rebounds.
Raef per 48 last season: 19.0 points, 9.8 rebounds.

Antoine per 48 for his career: 25.3 points, 10.3 rebounds.
Raef per 48 for his career: 19.9 points, 11.5 rebounds.

When you consider the surrounding players, isn't it pretty much a wash,
statistically? And when you consider the extra shots Antoine got and the
respective shooting percentages, doesn't the distinction blur even more?

Here's another one, and it's a doozy:

Antoine per 48 last season: 23.1 field goal attempts.
Raef per 48 last season: 15.3 field goal attempts.

Antoine per 48 for his career: 23.7 field goal attempts.
Raef per 48 for his career: 16.7 field goal attempts.

Last season, Antoine took seven extra shots to score four more points.
That's an abysmal ratio (but not far from Antoine's actual shooting
percentage). 

I'm not saying Raef Lafrentz is better than Antoine. We'll see how it goes.
But I am saying the simple analysis of "Antoine's a 20-ppg scorer and
all-star" is WAY too easy. Is he an all-star in the West? Who has a better
chance to make an all-star team this season, Antoine or Raef? If Raef makes
the all-star team among a weak crop of centers, does that make him a better
player? No. Just like Antoine making it among a weak crop of power forwards
doesn't mean anything. 

I don't know if any of this says anything that Bob Ryan didn't say perfectly
in his column today. But I think hindsight will show this trade was a lot
closer to the Stackhouse-for-Hamilton deal than the "Antoine's an all-star
and Raef sucks" crowd would care to believe. 

One final comment... I'm cautiously optimistic after reading the seemingly
unanimous opinion in the Boston media that Obie was just as gung-ho for this
trade as Ainge was. Many of us have believed for some time that Antoine was
strangling the team with Obie as a willing accomplice. Maybe Obie was a
victim as well? We'll see. It's up to Obie now to install a real offense. It
won't be easy. James and Banks aren't really ready to be true floor
generals, and that will be a problem. Pierce will need to break the bad
habits he developed over the last few years - standing around, waiting for
the ball to isolate his defender and go one-on-one. Sure, some of that will
be there, but if the team is going to succeed, they need an offense that
features other players-like Raef and, Heaven help us, Vin Baker.

Speaking of Baker... He now has far more responsibility than I'm remotely
comfortable with. He looks good so far, but as I've said before... the
moment you start relying on Vin Baker is the moment he breaks your heart.
Well, the Celtics are relying on him big-time right now. Makes me sweat just
thinking about it.

Anyway, Antoine is Don Nelson's problem now. I'm excited about the
possibilities.

Mark