*/Do the Mavs really need a center?/*
*By Chad Ford*
NBA Insider
/Send an Email to Chad Ford
<http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/writeback?name=Chad+Ford>/
*Tuesday, October 21*
The shock of the Antoine Walker
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3112>-for-Raef
LaFrentz <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3246>
swap wore off in the shower this morning.
Philosophy and wisdom often come in those quiet early morning hours
spent in the bathroom, and you have to wonder whether that's where
this deal was hatched for Mark Cuban and Don Nelson.
Cuban and Nelson have been shucking conventional basketball wisdom
from years. You don't do creative thinking in a board room. You do it
in the bathroom.
So it took me several hours to get there and figure out what's going
on in Dallas.
The scuttlebutt on Monday was that the Mavs ignored an obvious need
for a blue collar, tough rebounding center (like say Kurt Thomas
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3012>) and
traded for yet another free-shooting forward who thinks defense should
be left to Donald Rumsfeld.
Who was going to guard Shaq? Or Tim Duncan
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3173>? Or Yao
Ming <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3599>?
The answer? No one. Certainly not LaFrentz.
Shaq will drop 40 a night on the Mavs every time he plays them. Ditto
for Duncan. Yao? Maybe 25.
The Mavs weren't going to get any of those guys for LaFrentz, or even
Dirk Nowitzki
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3252> . . . so
you move on. Create a different game plan. Figure out how to structure
the pace of the game to mask an obvious weakness.
But what about the rest of the league? Can Dirk guard Rasho
Nesterovic? Or Dale Davis
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=404>? Is Marcus
Camby <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3084>
really going to light up the Mavs? What about Jake Tsakalidis
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3424>? Is
Nellie losing any sleep over Tom Gugliotta
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=829> or Jake
Voskuhl <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3432>?
What about Melvin Ely
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3610> or Chris
Kaman <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3709>?
You think Erick Dampier
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3117> will lead
the Warriors to victory over the Mavs? Greg Ostertag
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3030>? Stop me
when I get to someone else in the West who you think strikes fear in
the heart of the Mavs? The closest guy is Michael Olowokandi
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3244>.
Physically he's a concern. Mentally, no one's all that worried.
So, why this obsession with having a "true" center? By my count there
are three in the league who everyone should be worried about and one
of them, Duncan, spends most of his time at the four.
Sure there are some other decent bigs around the league. Ben Wallace
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3149> is a
menace, though he's technically not a center. If Alonzo Mourning
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=845> was
healthy he'd belong with Shaq and Duncan. If Dikembe Mutombo
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=425> were 10
years younger you could put him there. Ditto for Vlade Divac
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=84>. Eddy Curry
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3514> might get
there in another year or two. Jamaal Magloire
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3418> may make
it some day too. There are another handful of players who are decent
power forwards make a living at the position.
Who cares? Cuban and Nelson spent a lot of time and effort wooing
Mourning this summer -- hoping that the aging big man with a kidney
disorder who hadn't played in a year was the answer to all of their
problems.
That's conventional basketball "wisdom." Spend all of your money and
cap room on a risky, over-the-hill, broken down 7-footer because you
have to have a big man to win.
Instead of weeping and wailing for the entire season (Cuban's done his
fair share the last few months) the Mavs moved on. They will be,
without question, the most lethal offensive team in the NBA. The will
put constant pressure on all five defenders. They'll field the best
perimeter shooting team in the NBA. They'll have size, speed and even
some depth now that Antawn Jamison
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3247> has
agreed to come off the bench. They should be the most entertaining
team in the NBA to watch.
Chemistry may not come. The Mavs may never get tough enough. The bold
experiment may blow up in their face. But credit Cuban and Nelson for
trying something different. For thinking outside the block. For acting
on a bathroom revelation.
Here's one guy who's hoping that the Mavs, and the NBA, are better for
it.
*Around the League*
Of course the Mavs aren't the only teams that have decided to forego
using a center this season. Both the Suns and Pacers traded away their
best big man this summer and will use a number of hybrid lineups instead.
The Heat will go with Brian Grant
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2631> in the
middle. The Magic are counting on Juwan Howard
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2628> and Drew
Gooden <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3602> to
play center. The Raptors are still using Antonio Davis
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2143>, a power
forward, to play in the middle. The Nuggets will rely on Nene and
Marcus Camby. Neither is a "true center." The Clippers will go with
Predrag Drobnjak
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3216>. The
Blazers are using Dale Davis and little else.
Meanwhile, a number of other teams are paying a heavy price for
lusting after giants.
The Celtics will owe LaFrentz around $63 million for the next six
years. When you tack on the $44 million they still owe Vin Baker
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=1279> and the
$14 million that's due Tony Battie
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3176> you
wonder why Danny Ainge hasn't learned his lesson.
The Nets will be paying off Mutombo's $27 million buyout for the next
two. The Sixers owe $24 million to a guy, Todd MacCulloch
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3370>, who may
never play again. The Hawks are paying Theo Ratliff
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3020> and Nazr
Mohammed <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3272>
$37 million over the next three years. Erick Dampier and Kelvin Cato
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3185> are both
due $24 million over the next three. The Grizzlies are paying Lorenzen
Wright <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3116>
$21 million not to play center the next three seasons. The Kings have
sunk $19 million into the combined salaries of Divac and Brad Miller
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3305> this
year. And they'll owe Miller $60 million for the next six years after
that. The Spurs sunk $42 million over the next six into Rasho
Nesterovic. The Raptors still owe the 34-year-old Antonio Davis $37
million.
And my personal favorite -- the Sonics will sink $46.9 million over
the next four years into the combo of Jerome James
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3279>, Calvin
Booth <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3358> and
Vitaly Potapenko
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3106>.
Speaking of money, don't believe the ridiculous savings Peter Vecsey
claimed the Celtics got in his New York Post column today. According
to Vecsey, the Celtics saved $13.4 million next year by making this
trade. He even goes a step further and says that they actually saved
$26.8 million (double that amount) because of luxury-tax savings.
Here's his logic: "How? Mills' pay ($6.6M) comes off the Celtics' cap
next season, they hoard an additional $1.3M on the difference between
Delk's deal and Welsch's and, because LaFrentz earns $9.087M in
'04-'05 and Walker pockets $14.625M, an extra $5.5M can be saved. In
dollars and sense, that adds up to an alluring $13.4M. Bearing in
mind, the Celtics' payroll next season would've been almost $59M, well
above the luxury tax, the trade saved them double the above amount."
Of course, you can't do NBA math that way. The Celtics actually saved
around $5 million next season in salary and about $1 million in
luxury-tax penalties (assuming that the league's luxury-tax threshold
stays at $57 million as projected).
Next season, the Celtics had $58 million worth of guaranteed salaries
before the trade assuming they picked up Kedrick Brown
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3521>'s fourth
year option. Subtract Walker's $14.625 million and Delk's $2.7 million
deal from the books. That takes the Celtics down to $41.5 million in
payroll. Now add in the salaries of LaFrentz ($9.3 million), Welsch
($1.4 million) and low first-round pick (let's just say a $1 million).
That takes the Celtics to $53.2 million in payroll.
However, I'm still not sure how you can financially justify this trade
for the Celtics. First, there were strong indications that Walker may
have opted out of his contract after this season and hit the
free-agent market. That would've saved the Celtics $14 million next
season.
Second, while the Celtics payroll number does go down next summer, it
goes way up for the next five summers after that. Boston was looking
at a $40.8 million payroll for the summer of 2005. With LaFrentz in
the fold, that number is now $51 million.
With this deal, the Celtics won't see significant cap room until the
summer of 2006. Even then, their $30.5 million cap figure assumes that
the team doesn't re-sign Brown, doesn't extend Marcus Banks
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3716> or
Kendrick Perkins
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3730> and signs
no free agents with their mid-level exceptions during the next two
summers. If they do any of that, they won't see real cap relief until
the summer of 2008. Of course, that's the year Paul Pierce
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3253> comes off
the books.
In other words, while the owners will save a little cash here and
there, the Celtics didn't free up enough space to pursue a top-flight
free agent for a long, long time.
On the Mavs side of things, the claim that they somehow will get under
the luxury-tax threshold because of this trade are equally ridiculous.
While the Mavs did move the burden of LaFrentz's six-year deal, it
will be made up in other ways. The Mavs' current payrolls stands at
roughly $86 million this year. That's $42 million over the cap and $29
million over the projected $57 million luxury-tax threshold.
Next summer, the Mavs' guaranteed salaries add up to $75.6 million.
However, Steve Nash
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3103> is
expected to opt out of his contract and will be looking for a big
raise over his relatively paltry $5.75 million salary this year. Cuban
takes care of his players and it's possible that Nash could sign for
something like the six- year, $65 million deal Gilbert Arenas
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3540> inked
this summer. That could push them over $80 million in payroll next
summer.
In 2006, Walker comes off the books if the Mavs don't sign him to an
extension. Considering the way the Mavs are talking about Walker as
being the point-forward they've always coveted, an extension isn't out
of the question. If they extend him and re-sign Nash, they won't see
cap or luxury-tax room for at least the summer of 2008.
Are the Mavs done dealing? The rumors are already flying that the Mavs
will now turn around and try to move at least one of their Fab Five
for a center. Don Nelson claims that the deal isn't a precursor to yet
another blockbuster -- "We didn't acquire these pieces to move them
on," he told the Fort Worth Star Telegram. However, he hedged just a
little bit. "You never say never in this league."
The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Mavs could be looking at
moving Michael Finley
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3023> now for
either Jalen Rose
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2636> or to
Toronto for Antonio Davis.
Neither deal seems likely. Davis is 34 and shoots a terrible
percentage from the floor for a center. Rose is too selfish for what
the Mavs are trying to do. Finley will put the team before his own
shots. Rose has been unable to do that in Chicago.
The one guy the Mavs would love to have is Eddy Curry of the Bulls.
It's hard to believe that Chicago would give him up to Dallas for
anything short of Nowitzki, however.
Unbelievable steal for Raef
Kevin Sherrington / Dallas Morning News
Team shows that it really means business
Peter May / Boston Globe
He had no wiggle room here
Bob Ryan / Boston Globe
Big Deal Makes Cents
Peter Vecsey / New York Post
Mavs' move may spark another
Sam Smith / Chicago Tribune
Jamison tells Nellie he'll sit
Chuck Carlton / Dallas Morning News
*/Peep Show/*
*By Terry Brown*
*Minnesota Timberwolves
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min>:* Flip Saunders
didn't call Wally Szczerbiak
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3329> a sissy.
But the day's not over yet. "Wally's not in a situation where rest
will make him better," Saunders said of his player's sore foot. "It's
a nuisance injury. You basically end up playing with it. You have your
good days and bad." Officially, it's a plantar fasciitis strain, which
first occurred last year, and will likely keep the former all star out
of the final few preseason games and maybe even the regular season
opener. *Orlando Magic
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl>:* You've heard it
first in the Orlando Sentinel. Tracy McGrady
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3179> plans on
playing defense this season. "Until we realize that defense wins
games, we're going to have up-and-down seasons," said McGrady. "We
have to buckle down." But his coach says that his lack of defense in
the past isn't all his player's fault. "This year, he'll be able to
focus more on defense, ... but it's been tough when you have to do
everything," Doc Rivers said. "For the first time, Tracy McGrady can
be the total package."
*Detroit Pistons <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=det>:*
They say everyone has plan until they get hit. Well, Richard Hamilton
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3330> just
suffered a broken nose from an opponent's elbow. "I've only had a
nosebleed twice in my life," Hamilton said in the Detroit Free Press.
"The first time was when I broke my nose. After I got hit Wednesday, I
knew my nose was broken because of the bleeding ... It hurts. I try to
stay off that medicine they give me because it messes me up even more.
It makes me woozy. I still can't breathe unless I use that nose spray.
It's still in the recovery stage." He is expected to sit out at least
one preseason game.
*New Jersey Nets <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=njn>:*
David Stern is none to happy with the Nets ownership group and their
bid to sell the team and he's not holding it in anymore. "Quite
frankly, we have a team that's doing well, playing in a building
that's certainly adequate at the present time," Stern said in Newsday.
'If anything, we should step back and say, 'Hey, this team has been
doing great.' Attendance is up. Gate is up. Performance on the court
is up. I would like to see it resolved so I wouldn't have to answer
questions about it." He didn't stop with that. "I must tell you that
they're not making the kind of progress that we had hoped would be
made in terms of clarifying what's going to be going on," Stern
continued. "And it continues to be a source of some concern to me
based on that clarification."
*Miami Heat <http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia>:* His
knees hurt. Sometimes he forgets he just had surgery on one of them.
But Brian Grant
<http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=2631> refuses
to sit out even a preseason game after playing a full 82 last year.
"When the season starts, when it's time to really get dirty and
downright into it, I'm going to get into it," Grant said in the Palm
Beach Post. "Will I have a double-double? I don't know. I'm just
thinking about going in there and winning." His coach agreed. "He's in
great shape," coach Pat Riley said. "He gets a little sore because he
plays so hard. He's the one guy I think, as we get into the season, we
have to maintain a little bit more and be conscious of the tendinitis
and stuff like that. But he's getting there."
T-Mac aims to give defense his best shot
Brian Schmitz / Orlando Sentinel
Hamilton fights broken nose, fear factor
Perry Farrell / Detroit Free Press
Progress of Nets' Sale Doesn't Please Stern
Barbara Barker / Newsday
Pain is Grant's only guarantee
Chris Perkins / Palm Beach Post
Wally's 'nuisance' injury grating on Saunders
Ray Richardson / St. Paul Pioneer Press
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