My thoughts on the Toine trade

["Berry, Mark S" <berrym@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Like everyone, I have a lot of thoughts on the trade. I'll try to organize
them and not be too long, but this is a biggie. Here we go:

1.	I think it was obvious that Antoine (and Obie) wasn't buying into
Ainge's vision for the team. The quotes last week just drove the point home.
But even watching the preseason games, you still saw too many halfcourt sets
that began with Banks/James passing to Antoine at the three-point line then
drifting off to find space for a kickout jumper. Ainge saw that too, and
wasn't going to tolerate it. Also - Delk went as well. I don't think that's
a coincidence. Ainge wasn't going to let Delk become the point guard again
just because Banks and/or James struggled for a week. Ainge is forcing
change.
2.	As even the Antoine detractors (me included) had to admit, Antoine
was the leader of the team. That entails all the good things you'd expect
from a leader, but also some very bad things. In this case, the team leader
wasn't buying into change. He flat-out said it. And just as they follow his
lead when he's trying to rally them from 20 points down, they will follow
his lead when he resists change. Ainge couldn't allow Antoine to lead the
team his way when Ainge was working in a different direction. I'd say this
was a pretty strong message to everyone that things ARE going to change.
3.	The return... It all depends on Lafrentz. He slipped when he joined
Dallas. His minutes went down and he wasn't asked to do as much. And more
worrisome, he became even more of a perimeter player. If... and it's a big
if... Lafrentz is the 15 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 bpg, 50 percent shooter that I think
he can be in the East, I think the Celtics get the better of the deal. The
offense runs better, the rebounding improves, the defense improves, and the
team becomes much more efficient. If Welsch is Brent Barry or Manu Ginobli,
even better. Still, it depends on Lafrentz. I think he could be a major
impact player in the East, but it's up to him. He has to want it, and he
didn't look like a player who really wanted it in Dallas. We'll see. I wish
we had a banger ready to play alongside him. But a guy who puts up the above
numbers while fitting into an offense and only taking about 10 shots is, in
my mind, much more valuable than a guy who puts up 20 ppg, 8 rpg and shoots
36 percent while taking 20 shots. Those 10 extra shots will go somewhere,
and you have to think they'll be converted more efficiently than 36 percent.
Someone mentioned losing assists... I think eventually assists will go up.
That's because the team is going to have to change its offense completely.
There will be more passing and creating shots for others. There has to be.
Team assists will go up, even without Antoine's 4 apg.
4.	The contract... If it weren't for this, I'd call it a great trade.
But Lafrentz does have a bad contract. If he settles into 10 ppg, 6 rpg (and
I think that's worst-case; the only way that happens is if obstinate Obie
parks him on the bench in favor of Battie and Blount), then the trade is a
financial disaster. But, like I said, I think that's unlikely. I think if he
plays the way I expect, he'll earn his money.

The bottom line is I think this will hurt the team this season but help it
get closer to a championship. It wasn't going to happen with Antoine. Not
with his "everybody who comes in has to adjust to me and Paul" attitude.
That approach wasn't going to win a championship. I think Lafrentz and
Pierce are two guys who could be on a championship roster. I think a
Pierce-Lafrentz-Perkins front line could be dynamite in three years. The
guys this really puts a ton of pressure on are Banks, James and Obie. It
will be up to the first two to lead the team now. Antoine isn't the security
blanket anymore. And Obie will have to allow them to do just that. That
means actually putting in a point guard-initiated offense. Can he do it?
I've seen no evidence of it. That's one reason I say they could regress this
season.

Anyway, it looks like we're ditching the Kentucky system and trying the
Kansas system. Is there any way we can trade Obie for Roy Williams?

There's more I want to say, but this is long. We have to give this one time.
Because of the timing of it, the team is sure to struggle. Obie counted on
Antoine to do a lot (too much), so almost everything is going to have to
change. This is one step in building a championship team. Hopefully, the
point guard (Banks), swingman (Pierce), power forward (Lafrentz) and center
(Perkins) of a future championship team are on this roster. We'll know in a
few years.

Finally, it will be interesting to watch Antoine in Dallas. The Mavs could
take the chance on him because if he doesn't buy in, they have plenty of
guys they can play ahead of him. The Celtics never had that luxury. But, if
Antoine doesn't adjust his game to Nelson's liking, Antoine will be on the
bench. If he does adjust and become the point forward we all thought he
could be, then the Mavs get a great weapon. We'll see. It's up to Antoine.
In a lot of ways, it's like Nick Van Exel when he went to Dallas. He had a
lot of the same labels as Antoine, but he adapted to the Mavs' system and
became an important contributor. Maybe Antoine will do the same thing.

Mark