Draft Stuff From Andy Katz

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Tuesday, May 13

Right or wrong, early decisions have been made

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By Andy Katz
ESPN.com


A few high school players declared with an eye on next year's potential
20-year-old age limit. A number of college underclassmen are making the
jump to get a free tryout at the all-expense paid Chicago pre-draft
camp.

Some still, and will, go back to college by withdrawing their names from
the NBA's early-entry list by June 19. Some players, however, declared
for the draft with no choice of returning because of academic
eligibility issues. Others are simply getting poor advice.

Monday was the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NBA Draft.
Several names on the list were expected, while some are simply testing
their draftability over the next month. It's not a bad move, considering
the NCAA has given players the option to play in Chicago's camp (June
4-9) without a penalty upon return to school.

Those who don't sign with an agent, and don't see their stock rise in
scouts' eyes, must sooner or later face facts in the coming weeks. And,
if they refuse to do so, and don't withdraw from the draft by the
deadline, then their decisions could be viewed in a different light. The
bottom line: Players have to prove they're making the right move by
becoming one of those all-important 29 first-round picks.

But, for now, here is our take on the decisions made by underclassmen
over the past month -- both good and bad -- after discussing each
player's situation with more than a few NBA teams:

Good Decisions

As the desire of every NBA team, LeBron James' choice to skip college is
easy.

LeBron James, St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (Akron, Ohio): Please, James had
no choice. He was and still remains the clear choice to be the overall
No. 1 pick in the June 26 draft. Even if he wanted to go to college, he
couldn't because he wouldn't have been eligible. James broke amateurism
rules over the past few summers, according to numerous NCAA sources.
But, college was never in the LeBron equasion. James is probably the
biggest consensus No. 1 in years.


Carmelo Anthony, Fr., Syracuse: Anthony won the NCAA Tournament. He was
the Most Outstanding Player in the Final Four. He's a likely top three
pick. Why shouldn't he have declared? Anthony said it himself when he
told the assembled media in Syracuse that he had nothing left to do for
the Orangemen.


Chris Bosh, Fr., Georgia Tech: Bosh didn't deliver an NCAA Tournament
berth to Yellow Jacket fans -- let alone a championship, like Anthony --
but he still had no choice by to leave after one season in Atlanta. Bosh
will likely land somewhere in the top five, and it makes sense for him
to go in this draft. Sure, he could be better in the post and become
more of a physical presence. But how much higher could he go? No. 1 or
No. 2 isn't out of the question next season, when he would likely go
against Emeka Okafor as the top post player out of college. But being
No. 4 isn't so bad, is it?


T.J. Ford, So., Texas: Ford won the national player of the year (Wooden,
Naismith, ESPN.com) and didn't have more to prove individually. He got
the Longhorns to the Final Four and could have come back for a repeat
visit as well as more awards. But he is likely going to go in the top
five in this draft. Why not go now if that's the case?


Chris Kaman, Jr., Central Michigan: Get to know Kaman, he's now the best
American-based big man in the draft when UConn's Okafor decided to stay
with the Huskies. Kaman delivered Central Michigan into the NCAA
Tournament and that helped his stock, too. Kaman could have gone a few
spots higher if he returned for a senior seasn, but he's a lock for the
top 10 and that's why he had to declare.


Dwyane Wade, Jr., Marquette: Wade won Conference USA player of the year
and then led Marquette to the Final Four. He has family pressure to
deliver financially with a wife and child. He has given more to the
Eagles than they have to him, so he had little choice but to declare and
stay in the draft. He's a lock for the lottery, which is why this
decision can't be questioned.


Jarvis Hayes, Jr., Georgia: Hayes made the right decision to declare,
considering the Bulldogs face more sanctions in the wake of alleged
academic violations. Hayes also is a likely lottery selection, which
makes his decision more palatable. He's leaving his twin brother, Jonas,
behind but he can make up for it with a financial reward the family will
no doubt enjoy.


Luke Ridnour, Jr., Oregon: Ridnour could go higher in 2004 if he returns
to Oregon. And while his spot in the lottery isn't assured, he didn't
make a poor choice. He's one of the top point guards in the draft and
he's got a legit chance to play his way up if he works out well over the
next month. Oregon would have been back in the NCAAs next season, but he
might have hit some senioritis if he had returned.


Michael Sweetney, Jr., Georgetown: Sweetney's stock is rising and he's
done well the past two seasons in proving he can be a legit low-post
scorer. Sure, he might have been able to move up a few more spots next
year, but he's still probably would have been a back end of the lottery
player. So, why not declare when there is a buzz about him?

Bad Decisions

Another year at Kentucky would have made Marquis Estill's task of
getting into the first round easier.

Antonio Lawrence, Fr., San Jose State: He spent one year with the
Spartans and didn't do nearly enough to go higher than maybe the second
round, if at all. Lawrence was quoted as saying he is doing this for the
money. Huh? How about making some first. He could struggle to get a 'D'
league contract.


Ronald Blackshear, Jr., Marshall: Blackshear seems to have a problem
staying in one place. He couldn't stick at Clemson, Temple and now
Marshall. Blackshear isn't ready for primetime and needed another season
to stand out to feel secure about being a second-round pick.
James Lang, H.S., Central Park Christian (Ala.): Weight is a major
concern with Lang. And the word was he might not have been eligible at
any of the schools recruiting him. If he were, then he needed to go and
try college first to move up in any future draft. Spending one season in
college helped Anthony and Bosh tremendously. Lang shouldn't have
followed their lead.


Erazem Lorbek, Fr., Michigan State: Lorbek came to the U.S. to get
tougher and play a more physical style under Tom Izzo. He did so later
in the 2002-03 season, but playing well for a month isn't enough to
tantalize NBA scouts. Ironically enough, Lorbek actually would have gone
higher if he never came to the U.S. Lorbek intrigued NBA scouts because
few had seen him. Once they did in Spartan green, and saw he was not
strong enough to bang in the Big Ten post, then they started to have
reservations.


Josh Powell, So., N.C. State: If Powell stays in the draft he will have
made a major mistake. If he is just testing the draft process then he
will move off this list. There is no buzz about Powell's chances to
crack the first round. He has to work just to get his draft status
solidified in the second round. All he is doing is giving Herb Sendek an
ulcer as he sweats out Powell's decision to stay in the draft.


Marquis Estill, Sr., Kentucky: Estill had a chance to earn back a fourth
season of eligibility if he got his grades in order in the spring and
over the summer. If he had then Kentucky would have solved their
questions in the middle and Estill could have possibly moved into the
first round -- of 2004's draft. Instead, Estill will struggle to get
into next month's first 29 picks and will have to earn his keep as a
second-round pick.


Jason Parker, Jr., Tulsa: Parker could just be testing the draft
process. That's fine, if he can even get an invite to Chicago. Parker
might not get the note from Marty Blake, and if he doesn't, then all he
did was waste time, paper and give agents a chance to contact him.


Brian Polk, Jr., Temple: The word is that Polk didn't have grades to go
back to Temple. If that was the case, and he had no choice, then Polk
had nothing to lose by declaring. But if he had been eligible, he would
have at least given himself a chance over the next 12 months to make a
serious run at being a second-round pick.


Doug Wrenn, Jr., Washington: Like Blackshear, Wrenn can't stay in any
one place too long, either. Wrenn had a shot to make more of a name for
himself had he stayed at Washington for his senior season. Instead,
he'll take his erratic scoring ability to the league ... the 'D' league.

Undecided Decisions

Is 20, 21, or 22 the magic number for Chris Thomas to stay in the draft?

Chris Thomas, So., Notre Dame: Thomas said he will stay in the draft if
he's in the top 20. He might be around 21 or 22. If that's the case,
it's close enough likely for Thomas to still stay in the draft. He's got
a chance to prove he should go higher. If he can do that this wasn't a
bad decision.


Rick Rickert, So., Minnesota: Rickert has already made it clear that
he's staying in the draft. That's fine if he ultimately lands in the
first round. If Rickert left Minnesota to be a second-round pick then
he's made a major mistake. The questions remain about Rickert's strength
to play at the NBA level. He can add bulk, but he might have needed one
more season in Minnesota.


Jameer Nelson, Jr., Saint Joseph's: Nelson declared during the final
minutes of the deadline. He is hoping to get an invite to Chicago and
get the free tryout. If he can get into the first round then this will
end up being a good decision. Nelson's height isn't going to change. He
has to convince the NBA scouts that he is worthy of being a first-round
pick. That same question will haunt him next season. If he returns to
Saint Joseph's, he has a chance to be a first-team all-American and
Atlantic 10 player of the year. His jersey will be retired and he'll end
up being one of the best players ever to play for the Hawks.


Marcus Moore, Jr., Washington State: It's hard to blame Moore. He got
hurt last season and would have to make a radical style change with new
coach Dick Bennett running things in Pulman. Paul Graham played uptempo,
while Bennett will be more methodical. If Moore can play his way up into
the high second round then this wasn't a bad move.


Travis Outlaw, H.S., Starkville, Miss.: Outlaw has limited fundamentals
but he is a sensational athlete. His dunks are a highlight reel by
themselves. If he gets into the first round then it's arguably a good
decision. But if he does not, then it will be a poor choice. Outlaw
could really benefit by going to Mississippi State for a few years.


Carl English, Jr., Hawaii: English is one of the better shooting guards
in this draft. He has an outside chance of shooting himself into the
first round. If English had returned to Hawaii then he could have
created even more buzz about his shot. If he is a hit in Chicago then
making the jump now will have been a smart move.


Mario Austin, Jr., Mississippi State: Austin was a hit early in the
season, but the buzz on him cooled a bit later in the year. Austin had a
chance to be the 2004 SEC player of the year if he returned to the
Bulldogs. He could have led them on a deep run in the NCAAs. He would
have had momentum for the draft. Now, that could be in question.


Ndudi Ebi, H.S., Westbury Christian (Houston): Ebi would be wise to
honor his signing with Arizona and benefit from Lute Olson's teaching.
But if Ebi can somehow sneak into the late lottery then it would be hard
to argue with his decision. He has to workout and show he is that
talented. If not, then he'll regret this decision.


Andre Emmett, Jr., Texas Tech: Emmett had his issues with Bob Knight at
one point during the season. Maybe he wanted a change, but had Emmett
returned then he had a chance to be Big 12 player of the year. He could
still go back to Lubbock, but if he stays in the draft and slips to the
second round, then he made a mistake.


Ricky Minard, Jr., Morehead State: If Minard is getting a free tryout in
Chicago then this doesn't hurt. But if he's just going to stay in the
draft and end up in the second round then he has made a mistake. Minard
needed to make more of a name at Morehead before bolting.


Theron Smith, Sr., Ball State: Smith, the MAC's 2002 player of the year,
was injured this season and could have returned for a second senior
year. Instead, he chose to try the draft. But scouts are concerned about
the strength of his knee, which he originally injured in a NBA workout
last year when he declared early. If it doesn't test well then this will
turn out to be a poor decision.


Maurice Williams, So., Alabama: Williams could shoot up the 2004 draft
if he returns to the Tide next season. He could still get into this
year's first round, but it could be a reach. If he stays in the draft,
and ends up falling into the second round, then this was a major mistake
for his career.


Charlie Villanueva, H.S., Blair Academy (N.J.): Villanueva has
first-round talent, but maybe not until next year. Villanueva would have
benefited from playing at Kansas or Connecticut for one season. He could
still opt for college, but he better be sure he's in the top 25 before
he decides to stay in the draft.


Kendrick Perkins, H.S., Beaumont Ozen (Texas): John Calipari has no
qualms about Perkins declaring for the draft as long as he doesn't stay
in it. If Perkins isn't a top-20 pick then he's making a big error in
judgment. Perkins is a borderline first-round pick, but could be an
Elton Brand-type talent two years from now if he is patient.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.