Trade Walker, Peter May Says Correctly

[Way Of The Ray <wayray@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

PRO BASKETBALL NOTES

Logical move is with Walker

But could Ainge find any takers for him?

By Peter May, Boston Globe Staff, 5/11/2003

t's Mother's Day. And my mother always told me if I didn't have anything
nice to say about someone, then don't say anything at all. Sorry, Mom.
It's time to take a long, hard look at Antoine Walker and his future in
Boston. Then again, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Unfortunately,
Walker is making it easy for his detractors with his unremarkable play
in the Celtics' series against the Nets, although you can make a case
that he clearly looks either hurt, burned out, or both. Indisputably,
Kenyon Martin has outplayed him, badly, and, to Walker's credit, he has
faced the music. And the hecklers. He has admitted that his play is
hurting the team. He isn't shooting well. He isn't defending well. He's
one reason -- but certainly not the only one -- why the Celtics are
staring at a 3-0 hole against the defending conference champs.



Once this season ends -- and it could tomorrow night -- Danny Ainge must
seriously consider moving Walker while there still may be something of
value to get in return. (We know this much: The Nets won't offer much of
anything beyond Brian Scalabrine. They bring out the absolute worst in
Walker.) We also know this much: This Celtics team may have gone as far
as it can go as currently constituted. The thinking all along was to
build around Walker and Paul Pierce, but the foundation isn't as sturdy
as it once was, and the role players get you only so far. You can't
expect instant help from the draft at Nos. 16 and 20. (Look at what Nos.
10 and 11 got them two years ago.) There has to be a trade. Walker is
the logical choice.

This is nothing personal against Walker. He clearly enjoys being a
Celtic and has accepted his role as captain and leader. He doesn't get
into trouble. He's respectful in the locker room. Over his seven years
here, he has matured both as a person and a player. He does play hard,
even if at times a bit heedlessly. He wants to win in the worst way and
he has been a member of the Eastern Conference All-Star team in each of
the last two seasons. He's versatile. He can rebound. He's a terrific
passer. He is, according to Jim O'Brien, an excellent leader.

But here's something you may not have known about Walker. His stats in
virtually every offensive and defensive category have gone down in each
of the last three years. That usually is a red flag. After seven
seasons, you want to see things going in the other direction. It's going
the wrong way with Walker, and that is a signal to Ainge that it might
be time to shake things up. It may be Ainge's only legitimate option
because dealing Pierce is both impractical (he's a base-year player) and
impolitic (he's the team's best all-around player).

Here's a brief look at Walker's offensive production over the last three
years, understanding that the drop in points can be attributed in part
to the emergence of Pierce as the team's go-to guy:

As you can see, the only improvement in any of these categories was his
free throw percentage in '01-02. But then it went to a career-low this
season. He has led the league in 3-point attempts in each of the last
two seasons, a stunning statistic for a power forward whose 3-point
accuracy is not even among the top 50 in the league. For whatever
reason, his coach allows this to continue.

The unknown: How much value does Walker have, especially making the
money he makes? He earns $13.5 million next season and $14.625 million
the following season, assuming he doesn't exercise an escape clause
following next year. Those are pretty big numbers, which likely would
require a substantial salary back in return.

But the fact that he's got only two years left -- the Celtics can't be
thinking about extending him now at anything approaching what he's
earning -- might make him attractive to some team. He can do things on
the floor; I still marvel at his April 6 game against Washington in
which he went 3 of 16 from the field but also had 10 rebounds and 14
assists. This past year, he was named a reserve on the Eastern
Conference All-Star team, so there must be some coaches out there who
think he's worth something.

OK, so where would he go? One possibility: wherever Michael Jordan ends
up. Jordan likes to think of himself as one of Walker's hoop godfathers
and undoubtedly would relish playing the role of Henry Higgins to
Walker's Eliza Doolittle. But if Jordan ends up in Charlotte, that means
there is no chance of a deal for at least two years.

It's hard to gauge what interest there is in Walker the player vs.
Walker the player with the big contract. But it is imperative that Ainge
look under every rock to see what Walker might bring in return. There
are nights when Walker can be numbingly horrible and other nights when
he'll post the quietest triple-double you'll ever see. He has talent
but, as the stats show, the numbers are on the decline.

That means it's time to start looking. Ainge has no allegiance to anyone
on this team. He is charged with making the Celtics better. He saw them
Friday night. He saw New Jersey Friday night. There is a pretty wide gap
there, one that isn't going to shrink unless Jason Kidd bolts for San
Antonio. The Celtics have no one coming along like Richard Jefferson or
Martin.

Ainge can't assume that Kidd is going to leave. He can only narrow that
gap with what he has.