Re: Celtics just lucky?

[Eggcentric@xxxxxxx]

Good old Pythagoras Hollinger (SI.com) has unknowingly stimulated 
some of the most imaginative thoughts recently expressed  on the
igtc list. That's worth something.

I have enjoyed each and every response to the Hollinger article from the 
early   "This is the most stupid crap I have ever read " to Kestas' 
humorous  "Yeah, the guy has stumbled into some simple probability 
concepts by wildly stabbing around in the dark, but he has no idea he has 
just rediscovered the wheel" to Pete's perceptive  "...the problem with 
stats and basketball is that they don't have the RIGHT statistics to tell 
the complete story of what is going on.b 
  
Lots of fun to be had with stats because while ever accurate, they are
not always reflective of the big picture.  Chosen randomly, they can
so cleverly be used and abused. As Kim says, she can make 'em dance.
Yet at the same time, stats are capable of serving as invaluable 
guides to not only trends, but to fait accomplis.

If after 72 games a team is still being outrebounded by 5 RPG, I think it 
is fair to assume that said team has been consistently outrebounded 
throughout the season. If after 68 games Ben Wallace is averaging 15.4 RPG, 
I think it is fair to assume that he is some kind of a ferocious ball-eating 
predator. If Kedrick has a .079 3P% , I think it is fair to assume that 
he is a  "weak" 3P shooter even if he went 3-3 in one game and 0-35 in 
all the rest  

As Pete says, baseball stats are lots more revealing, but some of those 
can be silly as well.  My favorite new baseball stat is  "holds."  There 
have always been wins and saves, but nothing to record the success of 
middle relievers or set-up men.  So there you go... a middle reliever 
can now lead the league in a category known as  "holds " even though 
there is no such category as  "blown holds" since they are referred to 
as losses unless your team makes a comeback.  No end to this statomania, 
which is of course why it is all such fun.

Last thought - since our 10-5 record on Nov. 29th, we have played under
.500 ball, going 28-29.  Yet we will make the playoffs.  Just maybe 
Pythagoras Hollinger took the road less traveled, but is on to something 
after all with his conclusion that  "Sometimes it's better to be lucky 
than good. "

Egg