Statistically speaking ...

[Peter Delevett <pdelevett@xxxxxxxxx>]

One of these guys is going to be there at 16:

Banks
Jarvis Hayes
Pavlovic
Sweetney
Collison
and maybe Gaines

Obviously the Celts will be at the mercy of the teams
ahead of them. But if you figure a top 10 of James,
Darko, Melo, Bosh, Ford, Wade, Kaman, Lampe, Hinrich
and maybe Pietrus, one of the six guys at the top of
the list will be there when Boston picks. My guess is
that it's not Hayes. Any of the rest would be a solid
pick for Boston - though I'd probably put Pavlov at
the bottom of my list, only because he doesn't fill
one of our biggest needs (and seems a bit green).

Polkodzine really screwed things up for the Celtics.
That's one less good player who potentially slides to
16. On the other hand, Carparbarka could slip into the
top 15 and send another guy tumbling. 

So if Banks, Hayes and let's say Gaines are gone by
16, what do you do if you're Boston? Take Collison or
Sweetney and pick up a wing man - Diaw or Howard - at
20? Or go with Pavlov and grab your big man project at
20? I kind of think I'd do the former.

If Banks, Hayes or Gaines is there at 16, Boston
definitely goes big at 20. I was lukewarm about Sofo
but feel even more so about Perkins. Neither is likely
to contribute much next year. I keep thinking West
will be a solid pro, though I wonder if he's big
enough to be anything more than another Eric Williams.


If one of the top PGs AND one of the top big men are
still there at 16, Boston will be on the horns of a
dilemma. Banks and Perkins? Or Sweetney/Collison and
Diaw/Howard? Those are the kinds of decisions a team
could look back at down the road and agonize about.


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