Insider 1/27/03

["hironaka@xxxxxxxxx"<hironaka@xxxxxxxxx>]

> ---------- Initial message -----------
> ESPN Insider wrote:
>   The other player to keep your eye on is the Raptors' 
Alvin Williams. The emergence of Rafer Alston, combined 
with the team's lackluster play, has management looking 
to cut costs. You can add Jerome Williams and Antonio 
Davis to this list as well, but Alvin is generating the 
most interest right now. First, he's a big point guard, 
something just about everyone in the league covets. 
Second, his contract is pretty long, but he's not making 
outrageous money (around $5 million a year). Where will 
he land? Look to Boston, where the combo of Shammond 
Williams and Tony Delk is struggling. The Celtics could 
offer a package of Shammond Williams (free agent this 
summer) and Eric Williams (one more year left on his 
contract) that would allow the Raptors to clear some cap 
room. 
> 

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Unfortunately, Toronto's Williams brothers (Junkyard Dog 
and Alvin) earn 30% more than the combined salaries of 
our Williams boys (Eric and Shammond) this season. 

Thus the Celts would have to throw in two more minimum 
expiring contracts to conceivably make it work (e.g. 
Ruben Wysiwyg and Sundov).

Both Toronto players have admirable qualities, but this 
trade can't plausibly occur P-B-T (post Baker trade), 
with the  financial weight and risk spread too long term. 
Its unlikely that Chris Wallace could sell it to the new 
owners, given that Vin through 2006 is the first line on 
his resume.

The 6-9 Jerome and the 6-5 Alvin are signed for serious 
dollars through the age of 34-35, and into the latter 
half of this decade. That means they add about 5 million 
to next year's payroll...over 13 million per year 
projecting out to the 2006-7 season.

If a trade happens, the merits are at least obvious. 
Alvin, the 28-year-old PG, has size and shooting ability 
and is clearly in his prime. To wit, he ranks 5th in 
assist-turnover ratio in the NBA (3.5 to 1) and 15th  in 
steals per turnover. Not bad a achievement for a 6-5 guy 
on a team with so much roster instability. More 
importantly  perhaps, he's also a bonafide 2nd-3rd scorer 
at 14.4 ppg who can handle volume shooting (.444 , .351 
treys). But he makes 5.3 million this year.

As for the 29-year-old Junkyard Dog, he combines elite 
rebounding production (9.1 rebounds in 33 mpg this year) 
with outstanding character intangibles. JYD is a  
hyperactive defender/ballhawk. He's 12th in the NBA in 
steals, 3rd in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game. 
People forget how much defensive talent Toronto had 
accumulated during the Vince/T-Mac years. They were a 
headache. 

This season, JYD is 6th in the NBA in steals-per-
turnovers. The Georgetown grad is also one of the 
outstanding character guys in the NBA. You only need to 
hear him speak once in a post-game interview to like and 
admire his approach. He's a churchgoing type who doesn't 
rub his own holiness in. And he puts his money where his 
mouth is, in terms of his humanitarian impulses.

But Junkyard does count 5.25 million on the cap, which 
means its certainly an either/or equation between Jerome 
and Alvin, even if its obvious Boston is ejecting 
deadweight from the roster to go get them (Shammond and 
the other expiring contracts). 

The reason is that Toronto is in a true salary cap hell, 
so even this trade scenario is plausible unless a better 
suitor steps up. Whether Boston acts or not, Toronto 
likely will shed salary and restock. It makes perfect 
sense from their side.

Despite the positives, Boston's new owners should green 
light this second Chris Wallace spending splurge ONLY if 
they feel Boston can win a 17th championship by 
immediately adding these two new role-playing starters. 

That's a huge IF. I don't envy Chris Wallace. We'll add 
size/speed to the starting lineup, and a big upgrade in 
rebounding and steals, without hurting our defensive 
speed. 

ANTOINE
JYD
Battie
PAUL
Alvin

Tony Delk
Walt and Kedrick
JR Bremer
Grant Long and Vin Baker

But is that enough Celtics Pride to fight and will our 
way to a surprise 17th championship? The odds on bet is 
NO. Not even close.

I'm not even elaborating all the downside risks in terms 
of salary cap, which are daunting. Boston will be a 
salary cap nightmare if this blows up on us like the Vin 
Baker deal. 

You might argue its ugly enough now thanks to Chris 
Wallace and Vin Baker, so why not go double or nothing 
with a couple of more good locker room guys. 

But it would be "New York Knicks BAD" after this trade, 
if the two guys turn out to be Shandon Anderson and Larry 
Johnson type players.

Joe H.
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