interesting article about Banks and expectations

[Mark Piotrowski <markp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

from Patriots Weekly
<http://www.patriotsweekly.com/modules.php?
op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=90&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0>

J.Levy writes WAITING FOR MARCUS BANKS


Marcus Banks was selected with the 13th pick in the draft to tremendous
fanfare in New England. Celtics Nation is thrilled: hes got tons of
skills and more speed than an investment banker. A question looms: what
is a realistic timetable until hes a consistently positive factor on
this team?

Conventional wisdom says young point guards develop in their third
year. However, when investigating the young point guards of the past
ten years, a different picture emerges: a few guys are ready right
away, others take as long as five years before they can consistently
produce at a high level.

If we look at the point guards currently in the NBA, only three have
been very good from the outset. Everybody else took at least a year
before they were delivering game to game. Here are the best point
guards who have entered the NBA in the past ten years, separated by
when in their career they delivered their first quality season (note:
only active players were considered):


Rookie season:

Stephon Marbury
Steve Francis
Andre Miller

Believe it or not, except for these three guys, no one in the past ten
years has delivered in their rookie season. Every other big name (Baron
Davis, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, you can go on and on) they all took at
least a year.


2nd season:

Kenny Anderson
Baron Davis
Tony Parker
Gilbert Arenas
Nick Van Exel

Whats interesting about this group is that 60% of these guys drafted
late: Tony Parker and Gilbert Arenas went at the bottom of the first
round and top of the 2nd round, respectively, while Nick the Quick went
37th overall in the 2nd round. The other five guys in these first two
categories went no later than seventh overall. And no, Jason Kidd still
doesnt make the list. Look further on down for T.J.s papa.


3rd season:

Nobody made the leap from their 2nd to 3rd year, even though thats
when conventional wisdom says point guards evolve from prospect into
player. How bout them apples?


4th season:

Gary Payton
Jason Kidd

Here they are. Finally. The only two no-doubt-about-it Hall-of-Famers
on the list. Everybody knows that Payton took a few years to get going,
and we all understand and forgive him for that (but not for the
commercial he made with David Robinson his rookie year: They shine the
shoes! Whoops there goes the street cred, Gary. Can you imagine
LeBron or any rookie in the past five years making that commercial? And
whoops thats me, digressing). What about Jason Kidd? Some of you may
remember that he co-won the Rookie of the Year award with Grant Hill
how could that have happened if he wasnt that good yet (as this column
is claiming)?

Beats me. Hill put up superstar-like numbers in his rookie year, while
Kidd simply did not:

Points Rebounds Assists FG% Steals Blocks

Kidd 94-95 11.7	5.4	7.7 .385 1.91 .30

Hill 94-95	19.9	6.4	5.0 .477 1.77 .89

(I know the numbers don't line up perfectly... thankfully, the
readership is made up of smart cookies like yourself.)

Both teams finished out of the playoffs. The public knew who was
better: Hill led the league in all-star voting as a rookie! Juts a year
later, he was on the dream team! How did Grant Hill get jobbed out of
this one? First the ROY award, then the ankle.

While Kidd could always pass the ball and play pretty good D, placing
Kidd in the quality point guard category in his first three years
would break an immutable law: no one is considered a quality point
guard until he shoots above 40%! Period. Sorry, no discussion here.
Its immutable, after all.

Kidd was an okay player, and eventually turned into a magnificent one.
But he was getting credit for being great long before he arrived.


5th season:

Darrell Armstrong
Terrell Brandon
Steve Nash

I dont have anything interesting to say about any of these guys today.


6th season:

Alvin Williams

You could argue that Alvin Williams doesnt belong on this list. That
hes not a high caliber enough player. In fact, someone really should
argue that. But, after five years in the NBA, he did average 12 points
and almost six assists. For this list, hes marginal. If we held Jason
Kidd to these lowly standards, why... hed have won Rookie of the Year
in 1994-95!

Oh.

Then I guess Williams makes the list.



So what do we glean from all of this? Just this: Marcus Banks will take
a while. Last year, Jay Williams was expected to come in and run the
show for the Bulls. Only 10 months later (were talking
pre-bone-shattering motorcycle accident) the Bulls were considering
packaging him and the 7th pick to move up a bit in the draft.
Expectations are high for rookie point guards, and they almost never
live up to them. Its rare for a player to come right in and play the
position at a high level, and unheard of if you werent taken in the
first few picks of the draft. Marcus Banks could be a very good player
and it could take several seasons until we know if hes going to make
it.

Sheesh. How unexciting is that? But thats how it works. More proof:
Chauncy Billups may have finally arrived this season, after six years
in the bigs. Well see.

Great players often take time. One guy didnt even start until his
fourth season, and all he did was end up the all-time leader in assists
and steals, take his team to the Finals twice, and get Karl Malone into
the Hall of Fame.