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Re: [Celtics' Stuff ] I like Dumar's moves for the long haul

In terms of your moneyball analogy, I would question how well it can work and how well you apply it.

First, the A's strategy was due to the tremendous disparity in resources in baseball - it truly is an unfair game. With a salary cap and other measures, the nba is pretty far from mlb in that regard. Beane goes looking for high OBP guys near exclusively because he cant afford anything else. He determines what is most important and puts his money in that one area. Based on the primacy of outs, OBP makes plenty of sense in that regard. Specifically, the book mentions this. If he were able to get a guy who did everything well (get on base, hit for avg, hit for power, show speed and play defense) he would - they just cost 20 million which the A's cant afford. I dont think the money issues are transferrable to the NBA AND this is what the whole moneyball approach is necessitated by.

Second, the other side of this is that the sabremetrics movement and the quest for baseball knowledge that lies at the other side of this. Can you adjust stats by removing luck from the equation as the A's did and expect to have it work in the NBA? Is there a means of predicting via statistics NBA performance based on college or euro stats? I dont think so. If anything, the NBA seems to be the anti moneyball in this regard, where statistics are largely descriptive and lacking in real inferential power in terms of player development. Whats the equivalent of OBP in the NBA?

Third, the NBA seems to operate largely on an antimoneyball manner in regards to scouting. Guys like Hunter are routinely ignored in the pros because of the focus on athleticism, wingspan, looks and so forth. Beane is trying to combat the "this guy looks like a player" attitude in baseball and the NBA glorifies this to a large extent. This is one area that there is really room for some disagreement - but overall I still think it holds true in the NBA.

Getting younger does not really equal the moneyball approach. Remember, the A's bring in guys like Mecir, Justice, Hattieberg, Rincon etc. The A's do focus on player development rather than free agency for cost reasons. A baseball farm system with its multiple levels and large player base is certainly not comparable to the NBA. The success of the A's (though ignored to some extent) was also due to there initially tanking when Beane took over and stockpiling first round picks of which they got really and truly lucky in terms of a string of starting pitcher successes. Perhaps the closest thing to the moneyball approach would be to focus on the draft (but what statistic or skill do you focus on in your approach above all others) and undrafted free agents to build your team, along with low paying free agents who also meet this nameless skill requirement.

In moneyball, the A's assemble a horrible defensive team and pay almost no attention to team speed in order to bring in guys who can get on base. In hoops, would this be guys with high fg %? The analogy doesnt work.

Beane also worked off over 20 years of statistical research and inquiry that already existed, where is it in the NBA? Bill James and others pointed the way - there is no NBA equivalent.

There is no Moneyball out there for the NBA. In the NBA, you need guys who can do multiple things well to be successful (or at least a few of them). Its like comparing apples to oranges. I make this long drawn out point to say we do not need Danny to pattern himself after Billy Beane. A team in the NBA needs superstars and unless you really suck and get really lucky in the lottery (hello tim duncan) you generally will acquire them equally often via trade or free agency. You cant focus on one to the exclusion of the others. You just need to spend your money wisely, which has always been true in the NBA. The reason the Celtics are in this bind is because they have spent their money poorly on a whole host of contracts in the Pitino and then Wallace era. They also made some terrible draft picks and free agent signings. If they had added Rasheed Wallace instead of Vin Baker they would not be in this position. The A's in baseball could not afford to sign anyone making the equivalent of the NBA max. The Celts added the basketball equivalent of Greg Vaughn and are now paying the price.
Celtic4Hire@xxxxxxx wrote:

I shouldn't be surprised when you Piston lovers slobber all over them, you
neglect to bring up that they have lost two starters off of last year's team in
Robinson and Curry. As I have said before, I think they overachieved last
year. I think losing two experienced starters will hurt them and they will fall 5
games from last year.

Yet, I really like what Dumars is doing for the long haul. His Moneyball
approach of jettisoning the older, high dollar guys who have peaked to make room
to allow the younger, cheaper guys to grow is refreshing. I think it is a great
way to run a NBA fanchise until you know you have a champioship when you pay
whatever it takes. As I have said, this will hurt the Pistons in the short
term most likely but helps them in the long term with assets that have developed
that are cheap but with a higher value.

I believe Danny has some of this same concept building a stable with James,
Banks, Jones, Hunter and Perkins. He has his star in PP and a reliable,
economical center in Battie. However, Walker doesn't seem to fit in the Moneyball
scheme (Baker doesn't either but Danny can't do anything about that until Baker
can show he can contribute). We will have to see what Danny does with Twan
before we can annoint him. The other problem is Obie who is the antigen to
Moneyball. His admitted adherance to "win now" at the expense of the development of
youth will never allow the Moneyball concept to work for the Cs. If Danny
really wants to try to make this concept, he must take the EWill, Twan and Delk
options away in a similar way to trading Bremer, who I think had peaked at his
max value.....

DJessen33

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